Is he actually more valuable in left field?
For what it’s worth, the Astros seemed to be have moved on from Alex Bregman. The biggest news from the rekindling of the negotiations was the fact that Jose Altuve volunteered to move to left field. In fact, he has been seen shagging fly balls in Daikin Park. With the news that the Astros are supposedly giving up on Bregman it would seem that this fever dream would go away. However, that might not be the case.
There are indications that the move to left field could be in the offing even if it is only for part of the time. It’s a crazy notion, but there is a sabermetric backing for the idea of moving him to left field. Obviously, it would be nice to have an all-star level player to put at second base, but let’s consider two points of interest here. First, let’s take a look at Bill James’ total runs statistic and apply that to Jose Altuve over the past three seasons.
For those that are new or may not remember, total runs is essentially an old fashioned numerical calculation that is the backbone for WAR. The exact WAR calculations are secretive and dependent on the source. BWAR and FWAR are the two most common versions, but numerous sources have their own secret sauce. In this case, we add up runs created, fielding runs, base running runs, and a positional adjustment for total runs. Admittedly, WAR always involves allowances for the home ballpark and league norms, but we are comparing Altuve to Altuve here.
2022: 113 runs created, -15 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, 4 Rpos = 104 total runs
2023: 76 runs created, -13 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, 3 Rpos = 68 total runs
2024: 96 runs created, -13 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, 5 Rpos = 90 total runs
There’s a few notes here that we should make before I make my big reveal. Rfield tends to mirror defensive runs saved. Obviously, some people like Statcast and outs above average better. James himself used defensive runs saved, so I am trying to stay true to his formula. The whole idea is that an average shortstop, second baseman, and catcher is more valuable than an average player at any other position. They are theoretically rarer and therefore, it is more difficult to find an average player at those positions.
Altuve has not been an average fielder since 2019. He was passable in 2021, but if we prorate the 2020 numbers and include them with the numbers from the last three seasons he has been bad. Now, let’s assume that he is a neutral left fielder and simply apply the positional adjustment assuming he would be an everyday left fielder.
2022: 113 runs created, 0 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, -5 Rpos = 110 total runs
2023: 76 runs created, 0 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, -4 Rpos = 74 total runs
2024: 96 runs created, 0 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, -5 Rpos = 93 total runs
So, over the course of the last three seasons he would be an average of a half win better as a neutral defensive left fielder. Of course, neutral is not a safe assumption. However, on average if he were -5 Rfield in left field he would break even with what he was doing at second base. I think that is a reasonable ask at this point.
This is where things get fun though. If Altuve is playing in left field then who is playing at second base? Many will not like my answer. The answer is Mauricio Dubon. A couple of caveats that should be mentioned. First, it is not ideal in terms of lineup construction. I hate Dubon as a hitter. Yes, he makes contact, but it is usually weak contact and if he ever makes it to Cooperstown I don’t know how he will get to the podium because he sure as hell isn’t walking there.
Secondly, if you play him at second you might negate his primary advantage. The utility guy Gold Glove award seemed to be invented for Dubon personally because he is so versatile and equally proficient in the infield and outfield. However, if there were a position he were better at than any other it would be second base. If he were to play every day then second would be the ideal position for him to do so.
2022: 36 runs created, 20 Rtot, -1 Rbaser, 5 Rpos = 60 total runs
2023: 87 runs created, 8 Rtot, 1 Rbaser, 5 Rpos = 101 total runs
2024: 75 runs created, 31 Rtot, 0 Rbaser, 5 Rpos = 111 total runs
Before anyone throws a hissy fit, I should talk about the fielding numbers you see above. The numbers you see are the R/Tot just at second base for those three seasons. What they do is prorate the numbers you do have over a full season’s worth of innings at the position. Would Dubon have had 20 or 31 runs at second base? Of course not. It is patently ridiculous.
What isn’t ridiculous is that the numbers demonstrate it is his best position and in 2023 it is likely what won him his Gold Glove award. So, would he be worth ten runs defensively? That seems more reasonable and with these numbers all being prorated over 500+ plate appearances a season (around 550) we could conservatively estimate that he would have been worth around 80 total runs a season as a full-time second baseman.
No, I am not voting for that when it comes time to fill out my all-star ballot. I am not putting him on a Hall of Fame ballot. However, if you are going to use Dubon as an every day player, he is a lot more valuable at second than he is anywhere else. The idea of putting him in the corner outfield is lunacy. Sure, he is somewhere around neutral defensively and he hits for average, but in terms of total runs it would be a disaster. Put him at his best defensive position and with the positional bump he would get from being a middle infielder instead of a corner outfielder and it makes a ton of sense for the Astros.
If it were me personally, I would still prefer to use him as a utility player. I think that’s his best role as I would much rather him not get 500+ plate appearances. That means someone else would have to step up to play either second base or left field. As things stand, that could be a combination of Ben Gamel and one of the younger guys. Obviously, the list of appealing options are short at this point.