There are seemingly a few times each season when I write about Jeremy Peña, typically focusing on his offensive production or the lack thereof. Perhaps there’s another adjustment at the plate to highlight. It has become an annual rite of passage these days to read or hear about yet another adjustment of his at the plate. To be fair, though, Peña has been fine as a starting shortstop for a contending team. His defense is generally well-regarded, and he has maintained approximately a league-average bat throughout his career. Yes, there are peaks and valleys in his offensive production, but it all averages out in the end. That’s decent value, any way you slice it.
However, Peña’s potential has always seemed like it should be greater, especially in terms of power. I mean, have you seen those arm muscles? We caught a glimpse of that power potential back in 2022 when he hit 22 home runs in the regular season, followed by another four on his way to earning ALCS and World Series MVP honors. However, the following two seasons in 2023 and 2024 were disappointing in this regard (25 dingers total), and it’s not hard to see why.
Groundballs are regarded as the least valuable of the batted ball types, and Peña was clobbering hits…right into the ground. Thanks to his speed, he managed to sustain his average offensive production profile with 52 infield hits dating back to 2023, the most in baseball through the end of last season. There are many ways to be an average hitter, but it seems that being one primarily reliant on speed isn’t ideal for long-term success. Remove the speed component (hello, lower body injury), and his offensive production could take a significant downturn.
To clarify, I am unsure if Peña, even with an increase in power, will be much more than an average hitter at the plate. Even in 2022, when his offensive profile favored power, he was still roughly around league average as a hitter. However, if he were to unlock something further, I believe he would need to focus on putting the ball in the air more often. So far, in 2025, he is doing just that based on the early returns.
Batted Ball Rates, 2024 to 2025
- GB%: 49.4% to 38.3%
- LD%: 19.2% to 25.5%
- FB%: 31.5% to 36.2%
- HR/FB: 9.6% to 17.6%
It will take some time before any of the batted ball stats become more reliable. We’re only 16 games into the season. That said, the early trends are promising for Peña. He is putting the ball in the air more often, increasing his line drives and fly balls (the best types of batted balls), while decreasing his ground ball rate. Additionally, a higher percentage of his fly balls so far are going over fences for home runs.
I am also encouraged by Peña’s eye at the plate. Don’t get me wrong, he’ll never be one of those high-walk, low-strikeout hitters. Strikeouts, for better or worse, will remain a notable part of his profile. However, we’re seeing a continued refinement at the plate from Peña, as he is drawing a higher rate of walks (7.6%) and lowering his swinging strike rate (11.6%). He is seeing about the same number of pitches per plate appearance compared to his career average, but he is swinging much less at the first pitch than before.
First Pitch Swing Rate
- 2022: 47.3%
- 2023: 41.4%
- 2024: 41.5%
- 2025: 30.3%
It isn’t surprising to see him also draw more favorable counts, particularly in hitters’ counts. For example, he encountered a 2-0 count about 7.8% of the time last season. This season? That rate has jumped to 15.2%. Again, the sample size from this year is incredibly small compared to a full season last year. However, the overall approach of Houston’s lineup has changed this season, including Peña.
Peña’s surface-level numbers through the first 16 games of 2025 (.207/.288/.379, 92 wRC+) aren’t particularly impressive right now. However, his expected stats and the amount he is barreling are flashing red, so I’m hoping we’ll continue to see some positive results as the sample size increases throughout the season.
Will all these positive trends actually come together to make Peña an above-average hitter? I’d like to think so, especially if he continues to put the ball in the air. If so, I like the lineup more than I did at the start of the season. Let’s file this one away for now and revisit it in six weeks to two months.