Is time running out on the Astros?

Do the Astros have time to reverse their season? Yes. But they don’t have much time to get the team in gear….

Do you remember the famed Houston Chronicle Tombstone for the Astros?

(This was a 10 year anniversary tweet about the tombstone in 2015.) When the Astros get off to a 7 – 17 start, it brings the Tombstone to mind. The Chronicle published this obituary for the Astros on June 1, 2005 when the Astros record was 19-35. Of course, the ironic part is that the Astros began an average monthly win percent of .605 from that point forward, eventually winning a Wild Card playoff spot and making it to the World Series. Therefore, the Tombstone is viewed by many as the anti-jinx for a team’s season. Since then, fans of other teams, such as the Royals and Mariners to name a few, sometimes bring up the iconic photo of the Chronicle’s Tombstone page as a “hopeful” sign.

We are perhaps 38 days away from that day when a sports editor said “enough is enough.” I’ll leave it to you for the “if” and “when” that headline would be warranted for this season. But it’s obvious that the Astros don’t have a lot of time to start reversing the winning percentage. If they wait until the Tombstone date to begin the reversal, the Astros will be faced with a Herculian effort to achieve the playoffs. There is a reason that the 2005 Astros were often compared to the 1914 Miracle Boston Braves—it was a furious historic comeback.

How badly is time slipping away for the Astros? Let’s turn to Dan Symborski’s Fangraphs article, written two days ago, entitled, “The Astros Are Rapidly Digging Their Hole Deeper and Deeper.” He notes that the Astros are hardly dead in the water, but argues that time is of the essence. ZIPS’ current projected standings show the Astros with 41% odds of making the playoffs and 23% odds of winning the division. Fangraphs runs separate odds which are slightly better for the Astros, but still represent a similar decline in odds since the pre-season. The current FG odds for the Astros are 50% to make the playoffs and 32% to win the division. (The main difference between FG and ZIPS is that the Mariners have the best odds for the division, according to FG, and the Rangers have the best odds based on ZIPS.)

Symborski’s calculation indicates that the Astros currently would have to achieve their 80th percentile win percent in order achieve 90 wins. It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s worse than a 50-50 proposition. If the Astros continue playing around .300 win percent, by close to mid-May the division probability will decline to single digits and the playoff probability will decline to 1 in 4. At that rate, sometime close to June 1—the Tombstone Day in 2005—the Astros odds will decline to 5% for the division and 12% for the playoffs.

Playing at least .500 ball between now and June 1 would help stop the bleeding, but probably force the Astros to target a wild card position rather than the division title (if that happened 15% division odds and 33% playoff odds, according to Symborksi).

Symborski’s advice to the Astros: I usually counsel teams not to panic, but given the urgency of this situation, I think the Astros need to be aggressive at identifying and acquiring pitchers. The Marlins may not be keen on giving up Edward Cabrera given his low salary, but the Astros should at least have the conversation about a trade for him…Houston remains an excellent team, but starting 7-16 means that the clock is ticking very loudly. And if the Astros just stand pat, by the All-Star break they might find themselves turning their attention toward 2025.

I can’t disagree with his view that the Astros shouldn’t stand pat right now. But it is very difficult to trade for starting pitchers this early in the season. But, hey, that’s what Dana Brown signed up for, right? Try to get the difficult things done.

As we are painfully aware, addressing the Jose Abreu situation is another difficult problem for Dana Brown to address. He has suggested that the Astros may move more in the direction of platooning Abreu. That’s probably helpful, but it raises the additional questions of whom platoons with him, and what happens if Abreu doesn’t improve eventually. Singleton, Loperfido, Hensley, Cabbage are potential platoon mates. Does Brown look for help via the waiver wire (Garrett Cooper, for instance) or free agents (Brandon Belt) or trade?

Symborski’s article recognizes that Bregman is not hitting well, but (correctly, in my view) opines that he will most certainly get better. I would note that as bad as Bregman’s offensive stats are….they still show some bad luck. All of his x- stats (x-BA, x-SLG, xwOBA) are higher than his actual stats. (His x- stats don’t look great, but they are considerably higher than what has actually happened.) And he has zero HRs, but according to Statcast, he would have 1 HR in all but 1 ballpark and 2 HRs in almost half of the ballparks. I’m sure that is frustrating for Bregman and doesn’t help his mindset.