Is the Astros bullpen a weakness or a strength? Spring training is about finding the bullpen pieces
One of the question marks as we enter spring training is “how good is the bullpen?” The early opinion of most of the Fangraph prognosticators is that the top two members of the bullpen (Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu) are well above average, but that the remaining lesser components of the bullpen probably lead to a below average bullpen overall. The Astros haven’t made any major bullpen moves in the off-season—other than trading one of their better pitchers, Ryan Pressly.
The Astros are relying on some “no name” relievers to step up and bolster the bullpen during the spring. That is one of the main objectives of spring training—trying to separate the wheat from the chaff in the bullpen. That’s not to say that the spring results always tell us who will be good during the regular season. Sometimes relievers look great in the spring but fail during the regular season. It happens. But sometimes relievers come out of nowhere in spring training, make the roster, and follow up with good results in the regular season. Tayler Scott was a good example of that last season. He was a journeyman reliever who didn’t put up impressive numbers in the majors. But he was terrific in the spring, and followed the spring performance with a very good regular season. The Astros would love to have another Tayler Scott type story this spring.
So far in this early going, the Astros have a couple of relievers sidelined by injury. Kaleb Ort suffered an oblique injury, and Joe Espada indicated it would take some time before Ort is allowed to pitch. Shawn Dubin had a shoulder/arm issue early in camp. I haven’t seen any reports on the seriousness of that injury. Based on their performance last year, both Ort and Dubin were favorites to pay a role in the bullpen. The Fangraphs projections view Dubin as one of the better relievers in the pen.
With Abreu and Hader normally taking the 8th and 9th inning, who will replace Pressly in high leverage situations in the 7th or 8th? The favorites probably are Ort or Scott. As noted above, Ort may be out with his injury for a little while, which may give Scott the advantage.
Together, Abreu, Pressly, and Hader pitched 40% of the bullpen’s innings in 2024 That’s 205 innings. If we assume that Tayler Scott takes over Pressly’s inning total, that leaves 244 innings that must be pitched by the remaining bullpen. Roughly speaking, this means 4 or 5 relievers must cover 244 innings. There are approximately 10 reliever candidates in camp.
A major concern is that many of the relievers are projected to perform worse in 2025 than they did in 2024. This is a regression penalty. Notable candidates for regression are shown below based on their 2024 ERA vs. Projected 2025 ERA, which is based on the Fangraphs depth chart projection. (The projection is a combination of Steamer and ZIPS projections.)
Regression Candidates
Scott 2024 ERA: 2.23; 2025 Projection: 3.93
Ort 2024 ERA: 2.98; 2025 Projection: 4.24
King 2024 ERA: 2.39; 2025 Projection: 3.81
Since these are likely the three top candidates to replace Pressly’s role, the potential regression is concerning.
Abreu’s projection is basically he same as 2024. Hader, Dubin, and Montero are projected to produce improved results over 2024.
Projected Increased Performance
Hader 2024 ERA: 3.80; 2025 Projection: 3.10
Dubin 2024 ERA: 4.11; 2025 Projection: 3.99
Montero 2024 ERA: 4.69; 2025 Projection: 4.37
Of course, some changes in pitching mechanics or pitch types may have affected 2024 and these adjustments are unlikely to be fully reflected in the projection. Tayler Scott is a good example. As this Fangraphs article indicates, Scott incorporated several changes in 2024, namely greater usage of the high 4 seam fastball and adding a splitter to his arsenal. Scott also says that he benefited from improved command, leaving fewer pitches in vulnerable locations in the zone. We really don’t know if these 2024 adjustments are sustainable in 2025 and how they will affect his 2025 projection.
Several reliever candidates are projected to post an ERA over 4.25, which (if correct) would limit their ability to handle all but low leverage situations: Castro, Van Wey, Contreras, Hernandez, Gusto, and Montero. In addition, Forrest Whitley is a wild card in the bullpen competition. I didn’t include him in the tables above due to his extremely small sample size in 2024. The one-time top prospect has good stuff but has suffered from frequent injuries over his career. If Whitley can prove himself this spring, that would be a big deal for the Astros.
The depth chart projections predict that Whitley will pitch 59 innings with a 3.94 ERA. If he can do that or better, it would provide insurance against regression by other middle inning relievers. However, it may be “now or never” for Whitley, since he must be exposed to waivers if he doesn’t make the opening day roster.
Is it possible that the Astros may still add another reliever arm before spring training is over? Sure, it’s possible. But financial limitations (such as the luxury tax) may lower the liklihood that it happens. However, the remaining free agent relievers may be willing to take a lower priced contract now that spring camp has begun.
Some of the better free agent relievers who remain unsigned: David Robertson, Hector Neris, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Barnes. Robertson and Kimbrel are big names with closer experience who are relatively old, but continue to have effective stuff, according to Stuff+. Neris pitched for the Astros last season. Barnes also has considerable experience as a closer and set up man, but his performance dropped off last season.
I can’t predict whether any of these relievers could fall into the Astros’ price range.