A great spring training performance got the young rookie a roster spot. How is he performing early in his career?
Cam Smith is one of the most interesting stories for the 2025 Astros. As you probably know, Smith was the Cubs prospect sent to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade. The surprise is that Smith has turned out to be the primary replacement for Tucker’s old spot in right field.
I don’t think the Astros expected Smith to be in the 2025 opening day lineup when they made the trade. But his spring training performance was so eye opening that the Astros couldn’t resist putting him on the ML roster.
The decision by GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada was unusual. Most 22 year old prospects, no matter how esteemed they are by scouts, will not be elevated to the major leagues after only 31 days in the minors—which was his experience level in his first season as a professional. In addition, Smith was a 3d baseman, and had never played in the outfield, other than a few outings late in spring training. Thus, the decision to start Smith’s season at the ML level rather than the minors was improbable—maybe even controversial.
Personally I had mixed feelings about that decision. I was skeptical, particularly given the lack of outfield repetitions at the AA or AAA level. On the other hand, if Brown truly believed that Smith was ready for the major leagues, I give him respect for the courage of his scouting conviction. And, despite the skepticism, all of us as fans would be excited if it turns out that Brown made the right decision to put Cam in the majors.
Smith is only 13 games and 45 plate appearances into his season. So, it’s way too early to reach any conclusions about how Brown’s decision will end up. There are both good and bad aspects of his performance in the early going. So, what are we seeing?
- Cam Smith has shown us he is physically gifted. He is a large man (6-4, 224), and he is also very fast. He is in the top 4% of ML players in sprint speed (29.2 f/s). He is ranked as the third fastest ML outfielder in bolts. If he had played 3d base, we probably wouldn’t have noticed his natural speed.
- Given skepticism about how Smith would adapt to the OF, his fielding in the OF is one of successes so far. To this early point in the season, Smith’s fielding has been average to above average for RF. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) likes him a lot, giving him two runs saved in only 106 innings. Statcast’s Outs Above Average rates him 0, which means exactly average. Since he was playing outfield for the first time, a range of average to above average is pretty good.
- The offensive side is where the question marks remain. Like most of the Astros’ hitters, his stat line isn’t pretty: .214/.298/333/.631. (wRC+ 89). This is lower than his rest of saason (ROS) fangraphs projection: .236/.306/.384/.691 (wRC+97). The ROS projection indicates that Smith should improve his batting line to almost average.
- The “x” stats suggest that Smith has been somewhat “unlucky” on his batted ball contact. His x-BA is .233; his x-SLG is .353; his xwOBA is .294. This discrepancy between his expected and actual batting stats hopefully indicates future improved results.
- Cam Smith’s approach and plate discipline seems advanced for a 22 year old rookie. His ability to avoid chasing pitches outside the zone is in the top 34% of MLB hitters. His walk rate (8.5%) is around average, and his K rate (25%) is slightly above average.
- Cam has a nice looking swing. His bat speed is in the top 14% of MLB hitters. Smith and Christian Walker are tied at No. 35 and No. 36 in bat speed. Yordan Alvarez and Brendan Rodgers are even higher on the Statcast bat speed leaderboard at No. 5 and No. 30, respectively.
- Smith’s average exit velocity (87.5) is not particularly good (bottom one third for average EV). However, Tango and other analysts use a variant of average EV called “EV50,” EV50 is the average exit velocity for the 50 hardest hit balls. Smith’s EV50 (101) is above average (113 out of 277 MLB batters). Walker and Alvarez are ranked 23 and 45 on the EV50 leaderboard. Smith ranks fairly well on this process stat.
- I was concerned about Smith’’s lack of exposure to ML breaking pitchers. So far, ML pitchers have chosen to pepper Smith with sinkers and sliders (52% combined). They refrain from throwing a huge amount of 4 seam fastballs (32%).
- Smith has hit most of his batted balls to the opposite field. He has a HR and triple, which were pulled. The spray chart below shows his opposite field approach.
Baseball Savant
Conclusion
Probably the most favorable conclusion is that Cam Smith does not appear overwhelmed or over matched at the ML level. He has surprisingly adapted well to right field. But his offense is still a work in progress. He has a mature approach at the plate. But his results have been weak so far. However, some of his process oriented stats (EV50 and bat speed, for example) look good and could signal a basis for improved offensive results. It’s equally possible to imagine that he will be sent back to the minors in a few months for more seasoning as it is to envision a solid full season of ML performance. We will all keep an eye on the young man’s performance going forward.