How much is the third basemen worth to the Astros?
Admittedly, I am doing this out of order. In fact, I am profiling a player who is technically not eligible for the index. It is one of the things that I am able to do in this medium that I really can’t do a book. In a book, I need to follow a standard protocol. We start by looking at the outliers at third base. Then, we take a look at the players within the median range. Only then can we compare players on the outside looking in. We have to establish a standard first.
I am short-circuiting that process a little here. I have taken out the outliers and established a comfortable Hall of Fame median. For now, you don’t know exactly who that is yet. I can tell you that Dick Allen is the tenth player on that list as the position has four outliers on the upper and lower end of the scale. We are looking at Alex Bregman and whether the Houston Astros or any other team should look at him as a likely Hall of Famer or not. It involves some projection, but we can harbor some reasonable guesses at this point.
Any of you that have read enough of these pieces probably realize by now that I am not a huge fan of counting numbers. For one, we leave out one key number where Bregman excels. We have left out walks. If we added hits and walks together I am sure we would see an entirely different picture. The benchmark at this point is a six year contract. Where is Bregman likely to be in another six years?
We can assume that he will be healthy although as we have seen with other players (notably Dustin Pedroia) that is not a completely safe assumption. However, if we assume he averages a modest 500 plate appearances a season we could probably get him to 120 hits a year, 20 homers per season, and maybe 75 runs and RBI per season. That’s a very conservative and reasonable estimate.
That gets him there on home runs, but he falls well short on hits, runs, and RBI. Obviously, we are assuming his career would end there, but we are also assuming reasonably good healthy throughout the six years. I feel like it is a reasonable guess. Like I said, we have ignored the walks and that changes things considerably. This is why we look at the index and the other categories so heavily when evaluating someone’s case for the Hall of Fame.
This admittedly becomes tricky. Bregman is nine years in, so his output next season will add to both the career value and peak value tally. If he achieves four wins then that is an extra sixteen for the total index. From there, it becomes a guessing game of how those wins are parceled out. Obviously, that 2016 and 2020 season could be improved upon and if he achieved any additional four win seasons that would certainly do that.
Let’s do a straightforward estimate and assume he averages three wins a season throughout the six seasons. That would put him at about 57 wins in both BWAR and FWAR. That does two things. The bad news is that he is still well short of the Hall of Fame median at the position. However, it would elevate him above the 80 percent plateau on the bottom.
By sheer definition that would make him a borderline Hall of Fame candidate. Immediately we start looking at other considerations. Where does he stand in the hitting and fielding categories? Where will he stand in the awards voting? What will his playoff resume look like at that point? We can only answer those questions up to this point.
In past articles I have referred to push and pull factors that affect Hall of Fame fitness. The offensive and fielding numbers are great examples of those. On the one hand, the counting numbers and runs created will only get higher. On the other hand, the OPS+, rOBA, and OW% are likely to go down with each passing year. So, there becomes a likely sweet spot where everything fits.
For Bregman, he is likely to get to a point where he is pretty close to the Hall of Fame median in the three percentage categories. That might end up being at the end of the six year run. If he averages 80 runs created a season, he will get within about 100 runs of the Hall of Fame median. From there, if he continues to play he likely will pass that sum, but fall below the Hall of Fame median in the other categories.
All in all, if he remains healthy he is likely to be pretty close to the median across the board offensively. That certainly is better than where he is likely to be in the index and in the counting numbers. So, the key might be on the defensive end. While Bregman won his first Gold Glove award this season, this might be an area where he comes up short.
Rfield tends to mirror defensive runs saved. Unfortunately, there isn’t a second metric that is seen as relevant and can be used for older and newer players. Fielding analysis has limitations that way. Fangraphs shifted away total total zone runs. UZR has its detractors and you can see that the numbers for Bregman really don’t match up. In point of fact, almost every metric say he is an above average defensive third baseman.
If he continues on that road he will obviously surpass the Hall of Fame median in every meaningful category, but that is not likely a realistic expectation. If he can be average throughout the six year run he will end up right around the Hall of Fame median across the board. That feels like a realistic expectation.
This is where the argument for him becomes very nuanced. If he were to wind around the median offensively and defensively then you can make a very compelling argument for him. Yet, a lot of it depends on how that value is parceled out. Bregman had two very big seasons early on and has been good, but not great the rest of his career. That might end up being the narrative going in.
One of the things I love about statistics is when you can find a number that describes a narrative. When you look at the awards voting, it seems perfectly reasonable from a certain distance to simply assume Bregman will get close to the Hall of Fame median by the time the six seasons are up. However, that would not be accurate based on those of us that have watched Bregman more closely.
Those two BWAR seasons came in 2018 and 2019 when he was first in WAR and third in WAR in back to back seasons. He hasn’t come particularly close to the top ten in any other season. As you can see by the numbers, he did receive top 25 votes in two other seasons, but even something like that won’t get him to the Hall of Fame median. If I were to predict the future, I would predict that Bregman will end up somewhere around 14 or 15 MVP points with the same 15 BWAR points. The MVP points are just one of the many tests, but it provides a numerical explanation for a player that could be seen as good, but rarely great.
Bill James once said that numbers take on the characteristic of language. I think that’s a good descriptor, but I have always preferred art. Some of us draw stick figures. Others produce great paintings with vibrant colors and perspective that boggles the mind. Numbers work very much the same way. Bregman apes just about every third baseman in the Hall of Fame simply because he has more playoff plate appearances than any third baseman in the Hall of Fame.
Yet, the percentage numbers are virtually the same as the median. These two dichotomies paint very different pictures. On the one hand, he is just like everyone else. On the other, he is a key cog in one of the best teams in baseball history. This is also the one place where the future holds a very important piece to the legacy. If Bregman goes to a perennial playoff contender (or stays in Houston) he could end up building considerably on this resume. If he doesn’t then it might not be enough by itself to get him over the top.
If he plays in just two series a year for say four seasons then he could get as many 200 more playoff plate appearances. At his current rate, that could end up being four or five more home runs with maybe 30 runs and 30 RBI more. Add a third ring and you could make a very compelling argument that his postseason prowess helps him overcome whatever shortcomings he may have. Add nothing to those numbers or watch him underproduce in future playoff series and it could be the opposite. The future has yet to be written.
The Bottom Line
I’ve made this point before, but it bears repeating. Alex Bregman means more to the Astros than to any other team. This is just true from a public relations point of view. If you take the list of possible teams, you see a list of flagship teams with long histories and storied players throughout. Adding a three or four win player doesn’t move the needle in terms of marketing all that much.
I have compared Bregman to Ron Cey before. He might also compare to Graig Nettles. Cey was a prominent Dodger, but moved to the Cubs. Nettles started his career elsewhere, but arguably was at his best as a Yankee. While both were integral to whatever success those teams had, very few people in Chicago or New York hold those players in extremely high esteem thirty or forty years later. They were good players that played for good teams.
Alex Bregman is a similar player for anyone else at this point. Some teams may feel close to competing and if they think a Bregman can help them get over the top it might be a reasonable investment. In Houston, Bregman would be viewed differently. A borderline Hall of Famer that spent his entire career in Houston would be revered. He wouldn’t be Biggio, Bagwell, or Altuve, but he would be on that next tier. He’d never have to pay for a meal in the town again. How much is that worth to him? Maybe nothing. How much is worth to Houston? It is worth something, but how much is anyone’s guess.