Could the Astros Look In the Free Agent Pitching Market for Bounce Back Candidates?
Astros GM Dana Brown said the Astros may have to get creative this off-season. Could that extend to the types of free agent pitchers they will consider? The Astros have Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) and payroll issues. But, with the loss of Kikuchi and the free agency of Verlander, the Astros also need additional rotation depth if they want to avoid another expensive mid-season pitching trade.
One creative approach might include signing an injury stricken starting pitcher. The tactic might enable the Astros to lower the first year cost of a free agent pitcher’s contract, while also securing a starting pitcher for 2026 and 2027. This is a high risk/high reward strategy because we don’t know with certainty if the injured pitcher can bounce back But, on the other hand, it can be a high reward if the Astros acquire a high level starting pitcher without signing a crippling contract.
So, just for fun, let’s review a few options for applying this idea.
Shane Bieber
Bieber is one of the most intriguing free agents available The reason? When healthy (a big “If”), Shane Bieber is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. The downside? Bieber isn’t likely to return from TJ Surgery until several months into the season—probably around mid-season. Bieber pitched two games to start the season in April 2024 before the Guardians announced he would undergo TJ surgery—which he did on April 12, 2024. (Over those two games, Bieber had a 0 ERA and led the league in strike outs.)
Bieber is a former Cy Young Award winner who dominates from the top of the rotation when he is healthy. When he has been healthy for a full season, Bieber is a 5 WAR pitcher (5.5 in 2019 and 4.8 in 2022). Bieber won the CYA in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, posting a 1.68 ERA over 77 innings. Subsequent to the CYA season, Bieber suffered injuries from time to time, but ended up posting seasonal ERAs of 3.17, 2.80, and 3.80 from 2021 – 2023. At his best, Bieber combines strike out ability with good command/control of 4 pitches. Over his career, Bieber has an an outstanding K-BB% rate of 22.5%.
Bieber’s fastball is not a high velocity pitch—generally in the 92-93 mph range. But the 4 seam fastball is unusual for it’s downward, sinking action, which produces a high rate of groundballs. Stuff+ indicates that his slider and knuckle curve are plus pitches. The slider, in particular, generates a high rate of swing and miss and is characterized by 12-6 movement.
Because Bieber is likely to pitch only a partial season in 2025, it wouldn’t be unusual for the salary in that season to be significantly lower than the normal annual salary for a pitcher of Bieber’s caliber. It’s plausible that a 2 or 3 year contract might start with a $10 – $13 million annual salary in 2025. This is the aspect which may fit well with the Astros’ circumstances. The CBT exposure will be tightest in 2025, but several low performing contracts come off the books in 2026. The Astros could explore contract variations which could benefit both sides of the agreement. The use of options, incentives, and a shortened term (2 – 3 years) for guaranteed salary are possible tools.
Yes, there are risks with this approach. But the reward could be the acquisition of a top of rotation arm for the next 2 – 3 years.
For what it’s worth, a Newsweek article tried to connect the Astros and Buehler, but the headline (“Cy Young Winner Projected to Cut Ties for Hated Astros”) is more indicative of click bait than any real sourcing.
Walker Buehler
Buehler is a 30 year old starting pitcher who is a former 1st round draft pick of the Dodgers. Buehler is another high level talent when he is healthy. He has suffered injury plagued seasons, but benefitted from the Dodgers’ stockpiling approach to their rotation, which allowed him to contribute even when he had injury marred seasons. In years when he was healthy, he produced 5+ WAR seasons (2019 and 2022).
Buehler underwent TJ surgery which caused him to miss the entire 2023 season. His return to the mound in 2024 was marked by poor results, meaning that he will need a bounce back effort in 2025. The TJ surgery which Buehler is recovering from is his second such procedure. It is not uncommon for a pitcher to require a longer recovery period for a second TJ surgery, and this might explain Buehler’s poor 2024 results. Buehler seemed to show some improvement by the end of 2024, and his contribution helped the Dodgers piece together a rotation in the final month of the season. Buehler enjoyed an outstanding World Series, with five straight shutout innings in Game 3 and saving the clinching World Series game with three straight outs against the Yankees.
Unlike Bieber, Buehler presumably will be available for the full 2025 season. However, he will need to correct issues like declining velocity and poor swing and miss ability that hurt him in 2024. This will inhibit his ability to attract a high priced contract. He may want to bet on himself by signing a 1 year contract to demonstrate that is worth a larger contract in 2026. Perhaps a $8 – $15 million contract with team and player options for 2026 is feasible.
The signing team would take the risk on a lower salary with the hope that Buehler returns to high level performance in 2025. The Yankees, Braves, and A’s have all been rumored as showing interest in Buehler. Given the Astros record of success for making improvements to pitchers they acquire, Buehler might improve his odds of a good bounce back season if he signed with Houston.
Patrick Sandoval
Sandoval was drafted by the Astros and performed well in the Astros’ farm system before he was traded to the Angels in 2019. He underwent TJ surgery in July 2024, and was non-tendered by the Angels this off-season. The mid-season surgery date means that Sandoval isn’t quite as good a fit as Bieber or Buehler, because he is unlikely to contribute before August or September of 2025. And it’s possible that his return could wait until 2026. However, I put him on this list because, like Bieber and Buehler, he is returning from TJ surgery.
Sandoval has pitched six seasons with the Angels, and each year he seems poised to break out in the next year. But other than 2022 (3.7 WAR, 2.9 ERA), he hasn’t produced a high level season. He is a ground ball heavy pitcher, which can be quite useful in the rotation, and most of his seasons have been solid, though not spectacular. Stuff+ indicates that Sandoval throws one of the best sliders in the majors, and it is complimented by a good change up.
If the Astros wanted to take a chance on bringing back this former member of the organization, a two year contract might be a decent fit. Since Sandoval may not pitch for any length of time until 2026, the Astros have no incentive for Signing Sandoval unless a second season is included in the contract.