We’re only twelve games into the Astros’ season, so it’s still too early to draw hard conclusions about this roster. Not even two weeks’ worth of games. I mean, Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker will eventually hit better than they have at the start of the campaign. The lineup as a whole will start hitting again.
Whether this will be regarded as a “good” lineup is another question, however. Only Jose Altuve, Jake Meyers, and Brendan Rodgers have a wRC+ over 100, which is roughly league average. Altuve is the sole hitter on the team with a wRC+ exceeding 115 (166). While it is encouraging that both Meyers and Rodgers are starting their season on a positive note, the other power threats in the lineup (Alvarez, Walker, Isaac Paredes, and Yainer Díaz) have been noticeably absent. That’ll improve in due time; simply too many talented hitters among that group. I am a bit more concerned about Díaz, but I’ll tackle that question in its own post.
On the pitching side, things are looking more optimistic. The starting rotation, based on FIP, ranks among the top ten staffs. That’s good! They also have the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. Another positive! While there is a discrepancy between the bullpen’s ERA and FIP (1.10 runs), only two relief staffs have contributed more wins so far (the Dodgers and the Mets). Even with that implosion in Seattle, the bullpen has done fairly well for the most part. Reinforcements are possibly on the way as well, with both Forrest Whitley and Kaleb Ort expected back in the nearish future.
Even without Spencer Arrighetti for a while, this rotation and the entire pitching staff should manage. Will they sustain this level of performance? Again, that’s a good question. It all hinges on how well the depth chart holds up, especially on the fringe of the bullpen and whoever assumes Arrighetti’s spot in the rotation.
The above plot indicates that we should feel fine about Houston’s pitching staff at the moment, with only the Mets recording a lower FIP thus far in 2025. That’ll change, but it represents a quality start for a staff that has some uncertainty beyond the obvious guys. The lineup, however, is an early disappointment. In comparison to their peers, only the Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, and Reds have posted a lower wRC+. Not exactly the best company under present circumstances. In terms of runs scored, the Astros have only 38 on the season; the White Sox, Braves, and Rockies are the only teams with fewer runs scored.
Thankfully, the rest of the AL West isn’t setting the league on fire at the moment. The Rangers, whose pitching staff has greatly contributed to a 9-4 record, have benefited from a 5-0 record in one-run games, so we’ll see if there is any regression in that regard. However, like Houston, Texas’s lineup is also struggling currently. The Mariners’ bats are near league average themselves, although their pitching staff has drifted more to the middle of the pack to start the season. Any positive regression for the Rangers’ lineup or Mariners’ pitchers could position them for greater success. You can’t discount the A’s anymore, and the Angels have had a relatively decent start to their season.
In any case, the Astros are off to an uneven start this season. The pitching has been mostly fine, aside from occasional hiccups. The lineup needs work, and they are currently underperforming relative to expectations. Run production should improve in the coming weeks, but let’s hope this club doesn’t create another deep hole to climb out of before then.