What do we think about these Astros free agents?
MLBTR releases their list of top 50 free agents every year. Every year their experts predict the contract and which teams they think will sign the player. You can even play in a contest where you see if you can accurately predict where guys will land. Obviously, this is for entertainment purposes only, but looking at the contract estimates can be pretty instructive.
What we will do is evaluate each of the three major Astros free agents that made the list and whether it would be a good idea for the Astros to bite on the contract listed. We can also place bets on whether the final contract will go over or under the estimate. Before we start we need to establish some ground rules.
In real life, each decision has impacts on the other decisions. Jim Crane does not have an endless supply of cash, so we can’t say yes to all three even if we wanted to. We will evaluate each player as if they exist in a vacuum and then go from there.
Alex Bregman— 7 years, 182 million
It should be noted that half of the experts thought he would end up back in Houston. One expert thought he would go to the Mariners and the other thought he would go to the Blue Jays. I find that part interesting as no one has mentioned the usual suspects like the Yankees or Diamondbacks.
Over/Under That contract puts him at 26 million per season in average annual value. I think Boras is pushing for something closer to 30 million per season. It will be interesting to see the push/pull factors on contract length versus AAV. I would probably put the value at something closer to 6/180, but that is pretty close.
Should the Astros do it: Seven years is tough to swallow, but imagine Bregman as a three win player moving forward. Can he put up 20 wins in seven seasons? That seems reasonable on its face and if he does he will meet the current standard for cost per win in addition to potentially being a future Hall of Famer. 20 wins puts Bregman at almost 60 career WAR which would put him in that neighborhood.
Yusei Kikuchi— 3 years, 60 million
Three of the four experts seem to think he will wind up on the Orioles. That actually seems like a good destination for him. For one, the ballpark is a good park to pitch in for flyball pitchers like Kikuchi. Secondly, they have a similar focus on analytics that could continue what he was building here in Houston.
Over/Under: There is a certain amount of sticker shock when it comes to pitchers. When I see Kikuchi I see an average starting pitcher. I just don’t get how you give an average starting pitcher 20 million per year. I do get the focus on peripherals that the Astros saw when they acquired him. I get it. He just has never put together a long enough run of success to warrant getting paid like a top of the line starter.
Should the Astros do it: I think that contract is a no for the Astros. I firmly believe in the decision science and believe the Astros can get more out of him than other teams, but for 20 million you have to be a consistent top three starter and he has never been that on a consistent basis.
Justin Verlander— 1 year, 12 million
None of the experts think he will wind up back in Houston. They were evenly divided between the Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers. I actually don’t think either of the two West Coast teams would be good fits for him. Those are bigger parks, good teams, and teams that have been data driven in the past.
Over/Under: What exactly are you buying at this point? Are you buying a league average starter that can hurl 150 decent innings? When you add in the veteran leadership and obvious name recognition then the contract seems reasonable. If you are buying the guy we saw in August and September then you are getting someone on his last legs. My instincts tell me it is something between those two, but chances are that at least one team will roll the dice that he was just hurt last year and not over the hill.
Should the Astros do it: I’m of the opinion that the Astros are too good at taking average pitchers and getting the most out of them. I would rather spend this money on someone I can count on for 140-160 innings. Believe it or not, Jake Odorrizi was actually successful in certain situations. The key is picking a guy and understanding who he is and what he can give you. I just can’t count on Verlander to do the above.
What do you think about these three players? In subsequent pieces we can look at some of those other top 50 guys and see if there are any fits in Houston. Eventually though we have to look at the very real constraints this team is under financially. There may be some bargain shopping and creative accounting that needs to happen.