A few brief topics….beginning with Thursday’s shut out loss
Astros Shut Out By Opponent
Getting shut out by the Reds Thursday is particularly frustrating. Obviously you can’t win a game if the offense can’t score a run. And, given that the Astros lost 1-0, it would not require much more than 1 run to win the game.
The Astros have been shut out seven times this season. This was the second time that the Astros have been shut out in the last nine days. (On Aug. 27, the Phillies shut out the Astros 5-0.) The Astros also experienced another 1-0 loss on August 4 (Tampa Bay Rays). With the exception of shutouts imposed by the Phillies and Mariners, the Astros have been shut out by teams with below .500 winning records. Examples include: Chicago White Sox, Oakland A’s, and Washington Nationals.
The Reds have a below .500 record, but if it’s any consolation, the Cincinnati Reds are better than their record. The Reds’ Pythagorean Record is 73-68, five games above their actual season record. The Astros shouldn’t take any team for granted, but this is especially true for the Reds, which has a “bad luck” win-loss record.
How do the 2024 Astros experience with shutouts compare to previous Astros teams in the “golden era?” A few weeks remain to be played, but so far the 2024 Astros’ offense is getting shut out at about the same rate as recent years. Below is a table with the number of shut outs of the Astros offense for 2017 – 2024 (excluding the 2020 shortened season).
Baseball-Reference
The Astros are on pace to experience shut outs similar in number to the average for 2017-2023. The highest number of regular season shut outs were experienced by the World Series champion 2022 Astros team. The high octane offensive teams of 2017 and 2018 experienced more shut outs than the current team. I’m willing to conclude that the number of shut outs is fairly random for the Astros, at least in this era when the Astros have consistent winning teams.
Jeremy Pena’s Defense
Shortstop Jeremy Pena has had a rough time on defense lately. Pena has seven errors over the last 23 games. A non-error by Pena in Wednesday’s game contributed to Spencer Arrighetti’s melt down against the Reds. As Chandler Rome stated in a recent Athletic article: Pena “should’ve been charged with another [error] Wednesday when an Amed Rosario double clanked off his glove.”
For a shortstop who has a reputation as a defensive wizard, the recent spate of fielding problems is very concerning. The advanced metrics also point to a distinct drop off in Pena’s defense this year. The Fielding Bible’s DRS shows Pena currently with a -1 defensive runs saved. If this trend continues, 2024 would be the first season in which Pena’s DRS is negative. Pena was +6 and +16 DRS in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The Statcast metric shows Pena at -5 outs above average. This also would make 2024 the first year in which Pena’s OAA is negative.
Not surprisingly, during recent media seasons, manager Joe Espada has repeatedly stated that he has complete confidence in Pena’s fielding ability and indicated that he wouldn’t rest Pena due to the recent fielding errors. Naturally this is what you expect a manager to say in these situations in order to protect the player’s confidence. Pena’s offense probably is another factor which may make it difficult to rest him. At a time when the Astros’ offense has sputtered, removing Pena’s 101 wRC+ bat is not very desirable—particularly since Mauricio Dubon’s offense currently is 22% worse than Pena’s.
We really don’t know the underlying cause of Pena’s recent fielding mistakes. Sometimes fielders go into slumps, just like hitters do. Perhaps that is all this is. But it needs to end soon, because playoff quality opponents will make the Astros pay dearly for bad defense. Furthermore, if Pena’s defensive miscues continue, the Astros will go into the off-season wondering what kind of defense they can expect from Pena next season.
Kyle Tucker Close to Returning?
Outfielder Kyle Tucker is likely to return from the injured list at some point during the upcoming Diamondbacks series. The loss of Tucker’s power and presence in the lineup undoubtedly is a major cause of recent offensive problems.
A number of questions surround Tucker’s return to the lineup:
- Is his stamina and physical condition adequate to play RF? Will the Astros use Tucker more frequently as a DH?
- Will Tucker be capable of playing on an everyday basis or will the team plan for frequent rest days?
- How much “rust” can we expect from Tucker’s offense when he returns? Given Tucker’s skill level, I am guessing not much. But it may take a few games to get his timing back.
Astros’ Playoff Odds
The Astros were swept by the Reds and lost 2 games off their division lead. However, the odds for the Astros winning the AL West remain very high. The Fangraphs model shows the Astros’ playoff odds at 95.6% and the Mariners’ playoff odds at 9%. The PECOTA model playoff odds are even better. The Astros have a 98.7% probability of making the playoffs, according to PECOTA, and the Mariners are at 7%.