A few statistical notes and news centered on the Astros
As the end of a successful week for the Astros, I cogitate over some statistical tidbits and oddities.
Josh Hader’s numbers against lefty bats are amazing
The Astros’ closer’s platoon splits vs. LHBs are ridiculous. In 35 plate appearances against left handed bats, Hader has held the batters to an OPS+ of 2. That’s not a misprint—it’s a single digit OPS+ in which 100 is average. I can’t complain about Hader’s suppression of right hand batters, holding them to an OPS+ of 78— 22% below average. But the futility of left handed batters against the lefty’s herky-jerky delivery of pitches is something to behold. The OPS stat line for lefthanded hitters against Hader: batting average .118/ OBP .162./ SLG .206/ OPS .368. Hader strikes out 51% of the left handed batters he faces.
It’s no surprise that opposing managers frequently inject pinch hitters in the 9th inning versus Hader, usually attempting to remove LHBs. But sometimes teams have run out of RHBs on the bench by the time that the 9th inning rolls around. In recent Hader appearances, the opposing team had only rookie RH bats available on the bench, which creates an advantage for the closer.
Bregman, Alvarez, Diaz Driving The Offense
During the month of August, the Astros’ offense has been driven by three consecutive batters in the lineup: Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Yainer Diaz. The offensive stats for the three batter since July 30:
Alvarez: BA .347 / OBP .484 / SLG .714 / OPS 1.918
Diaz: BA .358 / OBP .410 / SLG .579 / OPS .989
Bregman BA .311 / OBP .344 / SLG .639/ OPS .983
wRC+ : Alvarez 223; Diaz 181; Bregman 173
It’s not an exagerration to say that these three batters are carrying the Astros’ offense. And the batting order construction fortuitously bunches these three hot bats together. Hopefully Kyle Tucker will return in the future and add a fourth consecutive hot bat to the lineup.
If we used the Run Expectancy (RE24) stat to evaluate hitting since July 30, we can add Jeremy Pena to the three hot bats. RE24 considers the situational impact of hitters and their ability to increase run expectancy above average. The RE24 runs above average since July 30: Alvarez 8.45; Diaz 7.17; Pena 3.24; and Bregman 0.74. Pena who usually bats behind Diaz has exhibited good situational offense in recent weeks.
Ronel Blanco and Regression Risk
Last Friday, I examined the relationship between first half FIP and x-FIP with current ERA, and one of my conclusions was that starting pitcher Ronel Blanco has experienced some regression in his ERA, but continues to pose risk of further regression in the future. This week, a couple of statistics related to Blanco were discussed on Fangraphs, and they reinforce my view that he may encounter further ERA regression.
Blanco’s BABIP
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) is a statistic sometimes used to evaluate the liklihood of pitchers’ regression. Pitcher BABIP stabilizes only after a very large number of innings. In the shorter samples, like a season or month, BABIP can be volatile, but it tends to regress toward the mean pitcher BABIP. Some pitchers may have the ability to suppress BABIP to some degree, but unusually high or low BABIP is interpreted as a signal for future regression.
Dan Symborski’s chat at Fangraphs recently discussed Blanco’s .196 BABIP, which is the lowest among starting pitchers in the major leagues. Symborski, the creator of the ZIPS projection system, said that ZIPS models Blanco as slightly above average in suppressing BABIP, but nothing close to his current low BABIP.
The oddity is that Blanco’s current career .205 BABIP is the lowest in the history of baseball (since 1871). Not only is that unusual, but it’s big red flag for future regression. If Blanco retired today, he would enjoy the distinction of lowest career pitcher BABIP, but he has a career in front of him and will likely regress in the future.
Blanco’s Meatballs
A pitcher’s home run rate is volatile and difficult to predict. That is because so much of the outcome is controlled by the batter. But presumably a pitcher can exercise some control by throwing pitches which are not located in spots that are easier to barrel up. Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens recently wrote about “meatball” pitches and home run tendencies.
Meatballs, which tend to be medicore fastballs with little movement and poor location, are not automatic home runs. Sometimes batters swing and miss at them, and sometimes they are fouled off, hit on the ground, or not hit far enough in the air. All in all, the very worst meatball pitches only have a 6% – 7% probability of being hit for a home run. The article defines a meatball as pitches with a greater than 3% home run probability.
According to the article, Blanco has thrown the second most meatballs in the majors this year (90). His meatball rate is 4.6%, which is ranked 8th among the 10 highest meatball pitchers. Thankfully, Blanco’s home run ranking among MLB starting pitchers is not in the top ten. With 19 home runs, he is tied for 14th in home runs among qualified starting pitchers in 2024.
I’m not sure if this indicates a greater liklihood for regression in Blanco’s home run rate. For one thing, it’s plausible that the effect of Blanco’s overall pitch mix and pitch sequencing are not fully considered in assessing the probability that a meatball will be hit for a HR. Also, other variables, such as Blanco’s ground ball rate, may move up or down and affect the meatball rate. But the high number of meatballs is something to watch. Blanco’s future regression potential is defined by his current x-FIP of 4.13 and FIP of 4.26.
Shay Whitcomb
Sugar Land’s Shay Whitcomb, who plays multiple positions, has been called up to the Astros, according to BrianMcTaggert. Whitcomb recently set the Sugar Land franchise record for RBIs (91). Last month I wrote about Whitcomb’s excellent statistical ranking in the Pacific Coast League. His ability to bring some of that offensive improvement to the major league level is an intriguing question.
This excerpt from the MLB Pipeline scouting report on Whitcomb highlights some offensive characteristics to watch:
Whitcomb employs a grip-it-and-rip-it approach, looking to drive every pitch he gets in the air to his pull side as far as possible. A right-handed hitter, he produces plus raw power and some of the highest exit velocities in Houston’s system. He also chases pitches and swings and misses at alarming rates, casting doubt as to whether he’ll get to enough of his pop against big league pitching.
Can Whitcomb improve the lineup’s power? Can he respond to the higher quality of pitching in the majors and avoid too much swing and miss?
At this point, it is unclear what positions he would fill defensively. DH, 1b, and LF seem most likely. However, he also is capable of backing up all infield positions.