With Kikuchi and Verlander now free agents, the Astros are short in the rotation
Before each of the last two seasons I wrote articles examining the Astros’ prospective pitching depth and suggested that they needed to sign another starting pitcher. The Astros did not do that…but they ended up requiring more starting pitchers as the seasons progressed in 2023 and 2024. As a result, the Astros drained more of their thin farm system to acquire a mid-season starting pitcher in both 2023 and 2024.
At this point, relying upon mid-season starting pitcher acquisitions to solve starting pitcher depth problems is a very bad idea. Trade prices are exorbitant at the mid-season deadline, and the Astros’ leaky prospect pipeline can’t sustain any more mid-season trades of prospects So, if the Astros can foresee a lack of rotation depth, they should probably deal with it this off-season when the cost won’t be as expensive.
How many starting pitchers do the Astros typically need? I asked this question in December 2022, and compiled a listing of the number of starting pitchers used annually from 2018 – 2022. As I wrote then: “Almost all teams need to use more starting pitchers than the number of pitchers in their starting rotation. Injuries will happen to all rotations. It is difficult to predict the severity or duration of the injuries. Sometimes the injuries only require a few days off, and sometimes, the injuries end a pitcher’s season. In addition, sometimes starting pitchers slump or go through periods of severe performance decline, and the team has to look for a replacement pitcher.” The 2023 and 2024 seasons exemplified those issues.
I have revised the chart from my December 2022 article to reflect the number of starters used by the Astros in each season, 2018 – 2024. This gives us some idea of how many starting pitchers above a five man rotation are typically required.
Starting Pitchers Per Season
2024: 12
2023: 9
2022 8
2021 9
2019 14
2018 9
Average: 10.1
Thus, it’s prudent to anticipate that the Astros will end up using 10 starting pitchers in 2024.
How many starting pitchers are available in 2025? (1) Valdez. (2) Brown (3) Blanco (4) Arrighetti. Without Verlander and Kikuchi, the Astros don’t have five experienced pitchers to fill out the rotation. Maybe—and I emphasize “maybe”—Luis Garcia will return from the injured list (IL) and furnish the fifth starter. But, one thing we learned from the past three years is that relying upon pitchers to return from the IL is very risky. What are the odds that Garcia will be ready by opening day? Less than 50%? (Just a guess on my part.) What are the odds that he will be returning as an effective starter by mid-season 2025? Too early to say?
Yes, the Astros have more starters on the IL, but I doubt we can depend on them for next season. I’m talking about Lance McCullers Jr., J.P. France, Cristian Javier—it would be foolhardy to depend on them to fill out next year’s rotation depth. Jose Urquidy has been released, so he isn’t available. If McCullers and Javier become available at some point next season, the Astros should consider it good fortune—-but for planning purposes, the Astros can’t depend on getting lucky.
Even assuming Garcia will fill out the rotation as the No. 5 pitcher, who do we rely upon for the rotation depth? At this point without a free agent acquisition, the Astros must look to their prospects in the farm system. For this next chart, I’m relying on the Steamer pre-season 2025 projection. (ZIPS pre-season projections are not yet available.) Since we need five more pitchers for depth, I have listed the next five Astros starting pitchers by projected Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which probably is a reasonable way to order the near-ready prospects. The prospects are in AAA, and therefore closest to the majors.
Pitching Prospect Depth (Rotation Spots 6 -10)
6. Gordon, Projected FIP 4.27
7. Blubaugh Projected FIP 4.39
8. Gusto, Projected FIP 4.78
9. Kouba, Projected FIP 5.20
10. Ullola, Projected FIP 5.22
Shawn Dubin (projected FIP 4.01) was in the ML bullpen for most of 2024, but also could be considered a potential starting pitcher. However, I am assuming the Astros view his future role as relief pitcher.
Most of those FIP projections are fairly high, with only a couple that look like they would be acceptable for multiple starts. And, as we know, there is a lot of risk in projecting how these minor leaguers will perform in the majors. The “error bars” would be quite high around those projections.
In 2024, the bottom four starting pitchers each produced negative WAR. Thus, history tells us something about the risk in filling the No. 6 – No. 10 spots.
Should the Astros acquire one or more experienced starting pitchers? Yes. They are relying on a pitcher returning from TJ Surgery for the fifth spot, and the options beyond that are risky. However, the Astros MLB beat writer, Brian McTaggert says the Astros do not consider the starting rotation as a “priority” for this off-season
Some observations based on the 2024 starting rotation:
- The four returning starters produced 10.1 WAR. In 2024, total pitching WAR was 14.4 (both starters and relievers). The total pitching WAR was 15.5 in 2023.
- With Javier on the IL and Verlander and Kikuchi free agents, the Astros need to replace 3.4 WAR to achieve the rotation’s 2024 production. For the No. 6 – No. 10 pitchers above, Steamer does not project that any will produce more than 0.1 WAR.
- The Astros will need to replace 146 innings pitched, which is the inning amount produced by Verlander, Kikuchi, and Javier.
What are the Astros’ options to acquire pitching?
I suspect that most Astros’ fans would favor signing Kikuchi as a free agent He fit in well with the team, showed that he can pitch very productively under the guidance of the Astros’ pitching coaches, and possibly he will not be top tier expensive. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen many signs that the Astros are going in that direction.
Another option is to re-sign Verlander. I think there is a good chance that Verlander returned from the IL too soon in 2024, which affected his poor performance near the end of the season. I’ll leave it to the Astros to evaluate whether he can return effectively. At this stage of his career, Verlander should be considered more like a mid- to bottom rotation pitcher, and he should expect to be paid considerably less than his current salary. GM Dana Brown said he met with Verlander’s agent to discuss a possible contract.
You can peruse the other free agent options at Fangraphs’ free agent tracker. There are a variety of different grades and types of available starting pitchers. The top tier guys like Blake Snell Flaherty, and Fried are likely to be very pricey and therefore unlikely targets for the Astros. The middle tier guys could be more plausible options, depending on their price. I put Eovaldi, Martinez, and Heaney in this category. Then there are the inning eaters—guys like Quintana, Gibson, and Montas. A pitcher like Shane Bieber, given his injury history, could be a high risk, high reward free agent. Then there is the lowest cost tier of the market—with pitchers ranging from Lorenzen to Alex Cobb or Adrian Houser. (The Angels have already taken a dip into that bottom tier, signing Kyle Hendricks for $2.5 Million.)
Thoughts?