The Texas Rangers are defending World Champs, and the Seattle Mariners addressed some shortcomings to close the gap with the Astros.
We’re all very conversant about all things Houston Astros, but how did the other four teams in the AL West change from last season?
Seattle Mariners
Lost: LHP Robbie Ray, IF Eugenio Suárez, OF Jarred Kelenic, OF Teoscar Hernández, 1B Mike Ford, José Caballero, C Tom Murphy, RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Justin Topa, LHP Marco Gonzales, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Isaiah Campbell
Gained: OF Mitch Haniger, RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Cody Bolton, RHP Gregory Santos, RHP Collin Snider, RHP Austin Voth, C Mitch Garver, C Seby Zavala, IF Jorge Polanco, 1B Luke Raley, 3B Luis Urías
With more turnover than any other team in the AL West, the Mariners did more than just get Ryne Stanek out of free agency. Can Seby Zavala and Mitch Garver effectively back up starter Cal Raleigh behind the plate? Can new right field starter Mitch Haniger outplay his 0.9 WAR ZIPS projection? Will Gregory Santos, Stanek and others effectively bolster the bullpen?
Here’s what you can bank on — The quartet of Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh, Ty France, and J.P. Crawford will lead the offense. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert will anchor what looks to be one of the best rotations in baseball. Seattle finishes above .500, but again misses the postseason.
I heard somewhere that Seattle’s roster was constructed to finish with 88 wins last season. Although they were successful in reaching that total, it turned out to be one win too few. Las Vegas has a current line of 87.5 wins for this version of the team, and FanGraphs predicts 85. If they again finish at 88 victories, will it again only be enough to just miss out?
Oakland Athletics
Lost: if Jace Peterson, LF Tony Kemp, OF Ramón Laureano, RHP Trevor May, RHP Austin Pruitt, LHP Sam Long, LHP Sam Moll, RHP Zach Neal
Gained: LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Trevor Gott, RHP Michael Kelly, RHP Mitch Spence, RHP Ross Stripling, RHP Alex Wood, 3B J.D. Davis, 3B Abraham Toro, LF Miguel Andujar
With nine pitchers projected by FanGraphs to top 1.0 fWAR, and zero to top 2.0, does anyone on the pitching staff have the stuff to stand out? My money’s on new addition Alex Wood. The team also has 13 position players projected between one and two fWAR as well, with only Zack Gelof (2.1) topping the bar.
The Athletics spent much of the 2023 season on pace to smash past the record for futility before some late-season heroics pushed them to 50 victories. This season, Vegas projections have them currently at 57.5 wins. Nearly an eight-win improvement, true, but still only good enough for dead last in the major leagues. Although FanGraphs is far more bullish at 72, the A’s are a long way from contending in their current form.
Los Angeles Angels
Lost: RF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Shohei Ohtani, IF Mike Moustakas, IF Gio Urshela, OF Randal Grichuk, RHP Jaime Barría, LHP Aaron Loup, RHP Chris Devenski
Gained: RHP Adam Cimber, RHP José Cisnero, RHP Luis García, RHP Robert Stephenson, RHP Guillermo Zuñiga, CF Aaron Hicks
There’s simply no player on earth who could replace Shohei Ohtani’s 10 bWAR, let alone the assortment of castoffs that LA signed since he crossed town to greener pastures. Taking that into account, it’s possible that Oakland could finish ahead of the Halos in the standings. FanGraphs has 73.5 but I think that’s way high.
Texas Rangers
Lost: C Mitch Garver, OF Robbie Grossman, LHP Jordan Montgomery, LHP Martín Pérez, LHP Will Smith, RHP Chris Stratton, LHP Aroldis Chapman
Gained: RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Tyler Mahle, RHP David Robertson, RHP Kirby Yates, C Andrew Knizner, SS Jose Barrero
What to get the team that has everything? You would think that a team that is also a defending World Series Champion would be all set going into the following season, but the Rangers team going into 2024 is projected by FanGraphs at 82 victories. That’s just the thinnest slice above .500, and an 82-win team can just forget about a playoff spot.
Is FanGraphs right about them? They caught fire once…
The thing about Arlington is that the entire Rangers offense was outperforming their peripherals for most of the campaign. FanGraphs is just taking the inevitable regression to the mean into account. Is this an 82-win team? I think they’re a little better than that. At least they don’t have world-class weirdo Aroldis Chapman for the Astros to victimize again.
Conclusion
Out of the 15 American League teams, the Houston Astros have the highest playoff odds going into Opening Day, at 86.1 percent according to FanGraphs. Only the Atlanta Braves (98.6 percent) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (93.6 percent) have higher overall odds. Do the Astros have the juice to make their eighth-straight ALCS, and win their third World Series? I think they do, and you should too.