With Pressly traded and some of the replacements likely to regress, how will the bullpen work out?
By trading Ryan Pressly, the Astros’ margin for error in the bullpen diminished significantly. Pressly previously had joined reliever Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader as the big guns in the final three innings of the game. Now the lower ranked reliever candidates in the bullpen move up a step in the pen, taking on the leveraged innings previously pitched by Pressly.
What is my concern about the new relief pitcher chain? Several of the lower leverage relief pitchers who looked good last year may be susceptible to regression this season. That may be a problem for the bullpen if these same pitchers are expected to replace Pressly in the 7th or 8th inning of close games.
The Astros’ bullpen candidates are displayed in the table below, which examines potential positive or negative regression from last year and compares the regressed results for 2024 with the Steamer projection for 2025. For purposes of this comparison, regression is based on the extent that random variation in the pitcher’s performance reflects good or bad luck. In a longer sample, I assume the 2024 performance would converge on “neutral” luck, so to speak. My analysis uses an average of three pitching metrics—FIP, x-ERA, and SIERA—to estimate more sustainable performance in 2024. The actual 2024 ERA is adjusted for the estimated over- or under-performance over the season. The columns show: actual 2024 ERA, adjustment for “regression,” the adjusted or regressed result in 2024, and the Steamer projection for 2025. In most cases, the Steamer 2025 projection tends to be fairly close to the adjusted 2024 performance.
Data from Fangraphs
- Josh Hader and Shawn Dubin experienced some bad luck on their 2024 ERA, and both are expected to rebound a bit in 2025. Hader and Bryan Abreu are 1 and 2 in projected ERA, and should provide quality in the 8th and 9th innings. Dubin’s adjusted 2024 ERA is almost exactly the same as his projected 2025 ERA, and he is likely to provide substantial innings of long relief in 2025.
- Three relievers (King, Scott, and Ort) who provided surprisingly good results in 2024 were a bit lucky and are likely to regress significantly in 2025. King is still projected to provide a useful 3.76 ERA, but Scott and Ort are candidates to regress harder. Both are projected to provided ERAs of 4.25 and 4.24, respectively. Given the importance of their role in 2024, regression of that magnitude in 2025 could be a problematic development for the bullpen.
- Montero had a bad 2024 season, but still, his ERA may have been somewhat lucky. The peripherals indicate that he pitched to an even more dismal 5.81 ERA. But the 2025 projection is a little bit more optimistic, giving him a 4.25 ERA. That’s not good enough to replace Pressly’s role, but Montero might become a necessary cog if major problems arise in the bullpen.
- Hayden Wesneski, who came over in the Kyle Tucker trade, is likely to regress from his 2024 results. Luis Garcia, Jr. is likely unavailable for the season opener, and Wesneski may be targeted for the No. 5 starter role until Garcia returns. At that point, I would expect Dubin and Wesneski to provide long relief out of the bullpen. Frankly, the regression metrics (FIP, x-ERA, SIERA) are not all that favorable, and Wesneski’s projected 2025 ERA is a lukewarm 4.25. That is based on both starting and relieving in 2024. If Hayden has a 4.25 ERA as a No. 5 starter, that may be acceptable, but not so much as a reliever.
- Forrest Whitley? Who knows? Given the small sample size in 2024, I would take the regression adjustment with a grain of salt. Steamer gives him a favorable ERA projection in 2025 at 3.77. It would be very helpful if he can play a meaningful bullpen role in 2025, but his injury history creates a big question mark.
There is a reason that baseball analysts frequently say, “relievers are volatile.” The surge of regression candidates in the table is an example of that aphorism. High quality leverage relievers like Pressly, Abreu and Hader tend to be more predictable. But most of the bullpen falls in the volatile category (at least on a year to year basis).
A procedural issue may complicate managing the bullpen in 2025. Only two of the relievers in the table has options remaining. With the exception of Wesneski and Nick Hernandez, this prevents the Astros from moving guys back and forth between Sugar Land and the Astros. This is an important tool for managing bullpen exhaustion, and also enables a poor performing reliever to return to AAA where they can correct pitching mechanics in a less stressful environment.
In my view, it is important for the Astros’ bullpen to get off to a good start with few if any melt downs early in the year. If a reliever performs poorly early on, they may have to be exposed to waivers in order to call up a replacement.
I did not include Bennett Sousa in the table because he was put on the 60 day IL last year for a shoulder injury and we have no news on his recovery status. However, if he is available in 2025, the Steamer projection is a reasonable 3.92 ERA.
Given the Astros’ tight payroll, I do not expect them to make a major free agent signing for the bullpen. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros offered a low priced offer to Hector Neris or Kendall Graveman, both of whom have some experience with the Astros in high leverage situations. Neris had a weak season last year, and Graveman is coming off an arm injury which kept him off the field in 2024. Steamer projects a similar low 4’s ERA for Neris and Graveman in 2025.
The ability of Astros’ injured starting pitchers to return in 2025 is another variable for the bullpen As noted previously, Wesneski may be the No. 5 starter until Luis Garcia Jr. returns from rehabbing his TJ surgery. Astros’ GM Dana Brown recently said that often-injured Lance McCullers Jr will not be ready for opening day. If he returns sometime in the first half of the season, he could provide depth, either in the rotation or out of the bullpen.
However, even if the injured starters return, we should not expect them to pitch deeply into games, at least initially. This also can put stress on the bullpen if part of the rotation can’t pitch more than 5 innings. In that situation, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros experiment with tandem starters like Wesneski or Dubin in the bullpen. Although the Astros have starting pitcher depth available in AAA, calling up those players may create roster problems, given the lack of relievers with options remaining.
I previously wrote that Joe Espada may have a more challenging season managing the Astros this year. The bullpen is one reason for saying that.
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