How about a strong start in an elimination game?
No matter how you slice it or dice it, Hunter Brown’s start to the 2024 season was awfully concerning. A 9.78 ERA and 5.73 FIP in his first six starts placed him in demotion territory, with only a lack of serviceable starters on the roster likely keeping him on the active roster. Considering how his 2023 season unfolded, well, it wasn’t a great spot at that time for Brown. We all know by now how a sinker he implemented into his arsenal during his May 5 start against the Mariners set the tone for the remainder of the season. Frankly, his turnaround was nothing short of fantastic, with a 2.46 ERA and 3.22 FIP in his next 142 2⁄3 innings. Strikeout rate, up, Walk rate, down with now more competitive pitches.
Not only was Brown’s 2024 season revitalized, but it also possibly improved his standing within the organization in the long term. Again, with multiple injuries to key contributors, he was thrust into a prominent spot in the rotation.
For the short term, the Astros need Brown to take this resurgence even further with the club currently facing a 0-1 deficit against the Tigers in the AL Wild Card round. Game 2 is, after all, an elimination game for Houston. Talk about unfamiliar territory for a team that has advanced to seven consecutive ALCS appearances and multiple World Series since 2017. It is now Brown’s task to help ensure that the streak doesn’t end today.
With Detroit stacking multiple lefties for Game 2, I am curious to see how Brown adjusts as his sinker has been particularly effective against right-handed hitters. Dating back to June, it has been his most used pitch against same-handed hitters. But, something interesting has changed in recent weeks: Brown is willing to throw his sinker more against hitters of the opposite hand at the expense of his cutter.
As Brown has become increasingly comfortable with his new sinker, we’ve seen an increase in usage against left-handed hitters, topping out at 16.4%. It obviously isn’t his most-used pitch in those situations, but it has become a trusted option among his plethora of secondaries. For a pitcher like Brown, who has five pitches at any given time, that counts for something. And lefties didn’t get a hit off his sinker in September, albeit in a small sample of 29 pitches. But, still, you can see some of the framework of how Brown could attack these Tiger hitters. With its break to Brown’s arm side, I wonder if he will use it to help him on the outer edges of the plate. Again, it wouldn’t be his main pitch, but could prove valuable in setting up other pitches elsewhere.
The addition of a reliable sinker has proven invaluable to Brown. Against a lefty-heavy lineup of Detroit, I am curious to see how he adjusts or continues to lean more into it. Honestly, I was a bit surprised that Joe Espada chose Brown over Yusei Kikuchi for Game 2 considering how the Tigers and A.J. Hinch deploy their hitters, especially a left-handed heavy one. But Brown has also earned the opportunity to pitch in a game like this one. Let’s see if the Astros are rewarded this time.