Of all 55 players to suit up for the Astros in 2024, Caleb Ferguson ranks 29th in terms of positive impact.
During this offseason, I’m turning the spotlight onto Houston’s 2024 roster.
The methodology for ranking each player is simple — BF*ERA+ for pitchers, PA*OPS+ for position players (and designated hitters). This simple equation allows us to measure both categories of player on the same scale. To wit, here’s what we have to date:
55. Grae Kessinger
54. Cooper Hummel
53. Pedro Leon
52. Aledmys Diaz
51. Jacob Ayama
50. Wander Suero
49. Miguel Diaz
48. Dylan Coleman
47. Forrest Whitley
46. Blair Henley
45. Joel Kuhnel
44. Jose Abréu
43. Alex Speas
42. Luis Contreras
41. Nick Hernandez
40. Parker Mushinski
39. Jake Bloss
38. Shay Whitcomb
37. Cesar Salazar
36. Zach Dezenzo
35. Héctor Neris
34. Brandon Bielak
33. Trey Cabbage
32. J.P. France
31. Jason Heyward
30. Ben Gamel
Mid-season bullpen addition Caleb Ferguson ranks number 29 overall.
Caleb Ferguson is a 6’3”, 226 lb. left-handed pitcher from Columbus, OH. Born on July 2, 1996, he was a 38th-round pick in 2014 by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of West Jefferson High School. He’s one of four to reach the majors out of the late round, along with Paul DeJong (13.6 bWAR), Griffin Canning (4.7), and Stuart Fairchild (2.1).
Ferguson was named to the 2017 Minor League High-A All-Star Team while playing for the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. That season, he ranked third in the California League with 140 K’s, a 10.30 K/9 and a 2.87 ERA, fourth with an 8.31 H/9 and 0.44 HR/9, fifth with 55 walks, seventh with nine wins and 24 games started, and 10th with 123 innings pitched.
Ferguson reached the majors for the first time with the Dodgers in 2018, and played parts of five seasons with the parent club, going 18-9 with a 3.43 ERA, 247 K’s in 207 1⁄3 innings (10.7 K/9), a 1.288 WHIP, a 3.78 FIP, and a 121 ERA+. Prior to the 2024 campaign, LA traded Caleb to the New York Yankees for Christian Zazueta and former Astros reliever Matt Gage. With the Bombers, Ferguson racked up a 1.500 WHIP in 33 1⁄3 innings, with a 4.28 FIP and a 5.13 ERA.
On July 30, the Yankees traded Ferguson to Houston for Kelly Austin. Caleb did not spend a moment in Houston’s minor league system, instead rostering at the parent club level for the duration of the campaign.
Ferguson did not add any starts to the 14 he had collected through his career until his acquisition by Houston, instead appearing for the Astros 20 times out of the bullpen. He pitched 21 innings in total, walking nine and striking out 26. He was 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He also had a 1.476 WHIP and a 104 ERA+, to go along with an opposing slashline of .265/.351/.325.
Ferguson inherited seven runners over his 20 appearances, retiring five of them. On August 20, he racked up his highest WPA of the season with Houston (.074, although he outpitched that nine times while with the Yankees), when he came in to the sixth inning of a 5-5 score against the Boston Red Sox and worked a scoreless inning despite allowing a hit and a walk. He also struck one batter out. On September 2, he struck out a season-high four batters in two innings of a 5-3 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. He kept them off the board despite allowing three singles and a walk. On September 21, Caleb pitched a perfect eighth inning of a 10-4 win over the Los Angeles Angels, striking out the side on 15 pitches.
According to Baseball Savant, Ferguson enjoys a four-pitch mix, led by a 94 MPH four-seam fastball (43.3 percent), filled out with an 89 MPH cutter (26.5 percent), an 81 MPH slurve (20.2 percent), and leavened with a 94 MPH sinker (9.8 percent). By a very wide margin, his best pitch is certainly his cut-fastball, against which hitters amassed a .130/.176/.148 line on 249 offerings. The pitch was worth four runs overall. Meanwhile, his slurve, with 51.4 inches of vertical drop, moved 3.6 inches more than an “average” MLB slurve, while his 8.8 inches of horizontal break moved 4.9 inches less.
Check back later this week for Joey Loperfido and Rafael Montero.