Let’s hope his problems are just the Spring yips
Who was worse than Rafael Montero this Spring?
The Astros bullpen’s back three are supposed to be among the best in baseball—maybe even one of the best ever. Even Lidge, Dotel, Wagner good.
And yes, Spring Training performances have to be taken with a grain of salt. But among the supposedly stellar back three of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu has managed to perform worse than Rafael Montero. And that’s pretty bad.
Of course, Spring Training doesn’t always predict regular season performance. Yet, sometimes it does. With Rafael Montero the only returning middle reliever from the last two years, an Abreu regression to pre-2022 form, combined with the Astros’ lack of starting depth, would seriously jeopardize the Astros’ prospects for 2024.
So how bad was Abreu this Spring, and should we be worried?
Of course, the usual small sample size disclaimer applies. But in 5.1 IP, Abreu had a 2.63 WHIP and a .363 batting average against.
What’s more, his performance got worse as we got closer to the regular season. On Saturday, Abreu allowed three runs on three hits in 0.2 IP. On March 19th, he allowed four runs on two hits and two walks in 0.2 IP.
Abreu’s success depends on a fastball that averages almost 98 MPH and a nearly unhittable slider. His failures usually come when he loses command.
Although Spring Training velocities are often less than during the regular season, in his last three games, Abreu’s fastball has averaged 95.9 MPH, almost two MPH below his 2024 season average. (No data for March 19)
On Saturday, all three hits were on sliders out of a total of five sliders thrown.
Although he didn’t walk any of the five batters he faced on Saturday, in his previous two outings before Saturday, Abreu walked four out of 10 batters. In his 5.1 Innings, he has allowed six walks to go with eight hits.
So, declining FB velocity, a hittable slider, and bad control. Does it all just turn around when the season starts on Thursday? (Oh yeah, Abreu is suspended for the first two games of the season) Poor Spring Trainings are not a pattern for Abreu. If he’s going to turn it around, considering the difficult early schedule and current injuries, let’s hope it’s sooner rather than later.
Abreu’s bad Spring could be a blip in the radar that we soon forget. Or maybe not. Let’s hope that before he faces the Yankees on Saturday it is the former and not the latter.
By the way, Rafael Montero’s Spring ERA: 9.00. Abreu’s: 11.81.