In many ways, the 2024 season has been like the 2023 season; the Astros are relevant and relatively good, but there have been many frustrating losses and injuries, and it feels like this team has left many wins on the table. With one month left in the regular season, this seems like a good time to review how the season has gone before things really get crazy.
The state of the standings
As of September 1st, the Astros are in a solid position to win the division. According to FanGraphs, Houston has a 94% chance of winning the division. At this time last year, Fangraphs only gave the Astros a 52.4% chance of winning the West. The team is three games behind last year’s pace, but the Mariners and Rangers are significantly worse.
The problem is that the Astros are behind the AL Central champ and, therefore, may have to play in wildcard weekend. This would be uncharted waters and make it significantly more challenging to make another World Series. It will be hard, but the Astros are only three games behind the Guardians. If the boys have a good September, they may be able to snag the critical two seed.
What has changed?
Houston’s 2023 offense was 13% above average (113 wRC+); this year’s team is only three percentage points off that pace, with a 110 wRC+. Having a healthy Alvarez, Altuve, and no Maldy has added a lot of value, but losing Tucker for half the season and Chas McCormick falling off a cliff has prevented the offense from improving.
Although the pitching is not as good as in 2022, the Astros pitchers have improved from last season. The 2023 staff finished the season with a 100 -xFIP, which is exactly average. As of September 1, this year’s team is four percent better than last year. What is most impressive about that is how many injuries the team has suffered. Even without Javier, France, Urquidy, and several months of Verlander, the team has improved from last season. Perhaps the Astros are still ahead of the curve in pitching development?
Trouble in one-run games:
The Astros have won 54% of their games overall but less than 40% of one-run games. The conventional wisdom is that a strong closer and back of the bullpen increases a team’s chance of winning one-run games. However, that formula has not helped Houston this year. Most likely, this is almost entirely due to luck, and hopefully, the team will continue to revert to the mean.
A look ahead
Houston is getting healthy and hot at just the right time. Since June 1st, the Astros have won 62% of their games, mainly without Kyle Tucker. There is still a lot of time until the postseason, and anything can happen, but Houston is showing no signs of slowing down. Even in their rough stretch of games against Baltimore and Philly, the Astros still outscored both teams.
Even more encouraging, Houston’s starting rotation looks to be hitting its stride at the right time. Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Yusei Kikuchi have made significant improvements over the past two months, and their current quality is far ahead of their season statistics. Justin Verlander started game one of the playoffs last year, but there is a reasonable case that he is not even the fourth-best pitcher on the roster in September 2024.
The managerial staff is also better this year. Last year’s team left many wins on the table by consistently leaving McCormick and Diaz on the bench; Joe Espada may not be perfect, but he does not make consistently bad decisions.
After Dusty Baker was ejected from game five of the ALCS, Joe Espada made a series of savvy moves to put the Astros in the best position to win. Managerial moves matter more in October, and the Astros are in better hands with Espada managing every move.
Baseball is fickle and moody, do not be surprised if the Astros get swept in the wildcard round. However, I am significantly more confident in this year’s team than last year’s. The pitching has more depth and, if Tucker can come back healthy, the offense should be better as well.
Win or lose, let’s enjoy the rest of the season. This may be the last time the Astros are competitive for several years.