How will the award effect the contract?
After three nominations in 2018, 2019 and 2024, Astros’ third baseman Alex Bregman finally won his first Gold Glove, winning it for the American League at third base. Thankfully for him and his agent, Scott Boras, this comes at the heels of Bregman entering free agency and shopping around for a new contract.
This is important to note because Bregman, for the large majority of his career, was never thought of as a “primary defense” type of player. He was someone who was focused on giving you a solid bat with a good eye at the plate, tallying more walks than strikeouts most years. This Gold Glove win also comes in the first year that now Giants third baseman Matt Chapman, who just won his fifth Gold Glove at third base, is out of the American League in his whole career.
First things first, did he deserve it?
The win for Bregman comes after he recorded what was, statistically, one of his best seasons at third, only topped by his 2019 season where he finished second in the MVP race. Playing in 142 games at third this year, he finished with a .972 fielding% and 10 only errors in over 1200 innings. While these are good numbers, they are not truly eye popping.
His six DRS ties him for fifth among qualified third baseman in baseball and tied for second in the American League. DRS is a metric that is used to calculate how many runs just the defender himself saved without any other external factors. The MLB’s DRS leader for third baseman in 2024 was, no surprise, Matt Chapman, who had 17. The other two people nominated with Bregman, Toronto’s Ernie Clement and the Guardians Jose Ramirez, either had the same DRS or higher, with Clement having 10 and Ramirez having six.
One place where Bregman edged both of them out is in outs above average, a state that measures how many more outs a player makes compared to the average fielder based on the difficulty of the play. Bregman had double the OAA of both Clement and Ramirez with six, which was tied for the highest among primary third baseman in the AL.
Bregman also led all AL third baseman, not only in DRS and OAA, but in games played (142), fielding percentage (.972) and total chances (355) among other things. So overall, Bregman was the best third baseman in the American League and it showed by him winning the Gold Glove. Also helps with Chapman, who won the AL Gold Glove for third base four out of the past six years, is gone.
So, did he have a stellar defensive season? Not really. But did he deserve the Gold Glove for AL third base? I think so.
How will that effect the contract?
Right when free agency started, it was reported that the Astros were in “positive talks” with Boras about bringing Bregman back to the team on a long term deal after his nine years. Bregman already received his qualifying offer, getting a $21.05 million offer, but he is not expected to sign it and choose to hit the market instead.
At 30 years old, Bregman has already shown in past years how good he can be on both sides of the ball. In comparison to other “higher end” third baseman around the league, Bregman would fall around the lower end of the conversation, around the same spot as Matt Chapman.
Chapman, following his age 30 season, signed a 3 year, $54,000,000 deal which was later extended to a 6 year, $151,000,000 contract, making him over $25,000,000 AAV. With around a .240 average, 30 doubles, 30 homers and a Gold Glove promised almost every year, it’s no wonder he landed such a big deal.
Now I’m not saying that is the deal that Bregman is going to sign. He has a better bat than Chapman to go along with a glove that is obviously good enough to earn him an award. He is not expected to sign anything close to deals like guys like Austin Riley, Manny Machado or Jose Ramirez, but he is going to get a lot of money.
The arbitration offer the team sent to him was close to Chapman’s yearly, and Bregman turned it down. The Gold Glove obviously adds something to what he can now get from teams. Bregman is coming off what was statistically one of his least productive season of his career, posting a career low .768 OPS, but still landed in the top 15 for AL players in WAR.
Chapman’s contract is looked at as a baseline for the negotiations between him and the teams . Had Bregman not won the award and still posted that same offensive stat line, I think things would be different. It was thought that Bregman could/should be getting more than Chapman coming into the season by fans, but after the first couple months of the season, those thoughts were quickly fading.
That was before he caught fire out of nowhere and quickly became one of the best hitters on the team for the rest of the season, while keeping the hot corner safe. That was all fans needed to know that was their third baseman of the future after being nominated for Gold Glove and the Silver Slugger awards.
By the end of the season, people started believing that maybe Bregman is worth the money people think he is, and the Gold Glove helped prove that help showing that he is more than just a bat on the field.
With Chapman’s contract in mind, it is thought that Bregman could earn closer to $30 million a year, with a contract lasting 4-6 years. If he signs with the Astros, he will be joining Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez as the solidified future faces of the franchise and the team will essentially be kissing Kyle Tucker goodbye come next offseason.