One of my favorite moments from the 2024 season thus far.
Spencer Arrighetti has made some large strides throughout his rookie season. Remove that disastrous first start against the Royals on April 10 and he has a 4.31 ERA and 4.21 FIP on the season. Respectable for a rookie pitcher thrust into a situation he wasn’t arguably fully ready for. But the lack of suitable starters within the Astros’ organization left Dana Brown with no other option early in the season.
The right-hander has looked particularly sharp since early July, posting a 3.19 ERA and 3.81 FIP in his last 67 2⁄3 innings with a 28.8% strikeout rate compared to an 8.2% walk rate. Other than that forgettable start in Cincinnati, Arrighetti has been a major reason why the Astros have taken control, at least for now, of the AL West. It isn’t a coincidence to see his results start to truly improve when he is generating a decent amount of whiffs.
But in his start on Monday against the Padres, while he wasn’t at his best, Arrighetti threw well enough, limiting a potent offense to two runs across five innings. But there was one at-bat that caught my attention and pretty much everyone else in the baseball world.
Simply put, Luis Arraez hardly ever strikes out. There isn’t a qualifying hitter with a lower strikeout rate dating back to 2021 than Arraez at 6.5%. Second place on that list is Steven Kwan at 9.8%. Arraez also has the game’s lowest swinging strike rate and the highest contract rate dating back to 2021, at 3.1% and 93.2%. In other words, a pitcher will have a challenging time striking him out, as evidenced by how no one has struck him out since August 10, a span of 141 plate appearances.
Well, that incredibly impressive streak came to an end last night against Arrighetti during plate appearance number 142. In this nine-pitch at-bat, we saw Arrighetti battle Arraez, one of the best contact-oriented hitters in the game today. To be clear, as I mentioned earlier, the Astros’ rookie didn’t have his best stuff in San Diego. He generated 58 swings, but only 11 whiffs, mostly on his secondary pitches. There were 29 foul balls and 18 balls in play in his five innings of work. Arrighetti’s four-seam, in particular, generated only two whiffs on 24 swings. San Diego hitters fouled off 18 of those four-seams, with four in play.
During this two-out at-bat against Arraez, with runners on first and second, we saw Arrighetti stick two most oft-used pitches against left-handed hitters: His four-seam fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup. By percentages, those four pitches are his primary options against lefties. But as I mentioned earlier, Arrighetti wasn’t at his best. While it wasn’t necessarily reflected in the number of walks, his command wasn’t exact. The first two pitches in this at-bat — a curveball and four-seam — were balls, not particularly close to being a strike. Arraez, being the incredibly disciplined hitter he is, just basically looked at them with no intention of swinging.
Pitch No. 1
Pitch No. 2
Quickly down 2-0 to Arraez, in this situation, Arrighetti had to be careful. The only reason why the Padres’ hitter isn’t more feared at the plate is due to his lack of power. But even a blooper into the outfield scores at least one, possibly two. Put the ball in play and things can happen. I think Arrighetti was trying to avoid putting anything in the strike zone for Arreaz to put into play, which I understand. He wants the strikeout to ensure nothing funky happens on the field. But pitching this opponent at the top of the zone hoping to induce a swing-and-miss wasn’t the best plan, at least in my opinion, which means literally nothing. With that said, keep in mind that while Arrighetti is missing high, he is also keeping the ball to his arm side, away from Arraez. The heat map of where Arraez swings and misses provides a bit of insight into why Arrighetti is throwing where he is. He just happened to miss the execution of the first two pitches.
Yes, it is uncommon to see Arraez swing at anything high, and increasingly rare that he misses. But Arrighetti, this time with his cutter, decided to test that theory again and he was gifted with a called strike.
Pitch No. 3
To be fair, it was closer to the strike zone than the previous two pitches, at least that four-seam fastball way off the plate a moment ago. But this called strike altered the trajectory of this at-bat, for Arrighetti’s benefit. Instead of facing a stressful 3-0 count against someone with Arraez’s reputation, he now has a more manageable 2-1 count. It expands Arrighetti’s options not only in pitch selection but also in where he wants to throw it.
Pitch No. 4
Going back to his four-seam fastball, I think we see Arrighetti better execute his location. Again, look at where he throws it, away from the left-handed Arreaz. If you want Arraez to swing and miss, much easier said than done, this is probably the location you want to aim for. And, just like that, Arrighetti got him to foul-tip his four-seam to even the count.
Pitch No. 5
If the first time worked, why not try again? Arreaz, however, was ready for this one, fouling it away to keep the at-bat alive. It was the right pitch in that spot for Arrighetti, as the count helps dictate the situation and Arreaz’s decision to swing. But we’re also talking about the best contact hitter in the game who rarely strikes out. Again, much easier said than done, but you can understand why the right-hander chose to test out this spot again.
Pitch No. 6
In a 2-2 count following two consecutive fouled four-seam fastballs, I can appreciate what Arrighetti is trying to do in this spot. Arreaz is occasionally susceptible to whiff on pitches low in the zone. Keep that in mind for later. While the sample was incredibly small — 22 pitches, in total, before Monday — Arraez has whiffed or fouled tipped every time on an offspeed or breaking pitch thrown in the following attack zones: 17 through 19, 27 through 29, and 37 through 39.
But Arrighetti’s changeup, for the lack of a better term, was executed poorly. At least to my eyes. To belabor the point, my opinion means nothing. But it felt obvious from pretty much the ball was released that it was going to end up in the dirt. For most hitters, especially for Arraez, there was no chance he was going to swing at it. I get the plan here, but it was a poorly executed pitch.
Pitch No. 7
Now in a 3-2 count, Arrighetti couldn’t afford to risk another ball in the dirt. This four-seam in that location makes sense as he tries to get him elevated and away. Anything close to the zone and you’d figure Arraez would swing. Hopefully a strikeout or perhaps suboptimal contact that leads to a harmless out. Again, you see why Arraez has his reputation by fouling this one off.
Pitch No. 8
I love what Arrighetti tried to do here with his four-seam fastball. For one, as we already established, Arreaz’s swing-and-miss tendencies indicate this is where you want to throw it. At that spot of the zone in this count, you know he is likely swinging away, hoping to keep the at-bat alive. Second, it honestly looked like Arrighetti was throwing with some authority here. He had in previous pitches, to be clear, but I enjoyed everything involved with this pitch. The selection, the location, in that situation in a 3-2 count. Arreaz did a terrific job by making some contact. I love watching these kinds of at-bats play out and seeing two players doing what they do best.
Pitch No. 9
Last, but certainly not least, Arrighetti drops this beauty of a curveball, revisiting the earlier concept of getting Arreaz to swing through something low. Again, as the heat map earlier indicated, Arreaz may have a higher rate of whiffs on pitches thrown where Arrighetti threw this one. I wondered when Arrighetti would unleash his curveball again, as it is his second-most used pitch against left-handed hitters. Other than that first pitch ball at the top of the zone, we saw a steady diet of fastballs with the occasional cutter or changeup. But with Arreaz fouling off multiple fastballs in this at-bat, I love the decision to try his curveball again, but inside. It was a fantastically executed pitch in a spot that ended the threat to keep the deficit to one run.
The last two pitches in this at-bat, in my opinion, were wonderfully executed. While I wasn’t thrilled about the first two pitches that led to the 2-0 count against the best contact hitter in the game, we also saw improvement during this at-bat. He went after Arreaz in areas that could generate a strikeout in a situation when a strikeout was the best outcome. While some pitches were executed better than others, it became clear what his plan was. Against a hitter with Arreaz’s capabilities and with an impressive strikeout steak at stake, it was an incredibly fun at-bat to watch.