This division rival figures to be in the mix for the AL West crown in 2025.
Depending on your metric of choice, the Mariners had one of the best starting rotations in 2024, if not the top staff in baseball. I mean, they accumulated the most innings of any staff (942 2⁄3) and allowed the third-fewest runs (354). That’s not only an efficient rotation but a great one. They’re a major reason why the Mariners won 85 games last season.
But if you want to look for why Seattle only won 85 games with that behemoth of a rotation, look no further than the lineup. A .219/.300/.367 slash line with a 98 wRC+ in the first half won’t get it done, no matter the pitching staff. The in-season additions of Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena certainly helped their offensive production in the second half (.232/.327/.389, 113 wRC+), but it was too little, too late by that point in the season.
So, coming off the heels of a disappointing 2024 with a top-notch rotation, the Mariners decided to inexplicably stand pat for the most part. When the most notable activity during their offseason was to re-sign Jorge Polanco and sign Donavan Solano, well, it doesn’t inspire too much confidence.
Notable Additions
- Donavan Solano (free agent signing)
- Rowdy Tellez (minor league contract, with an invite to Spring Training)
Notable Subtractions
- Yimi García (free agent, signed with the Blue Jays)
- Justin Turner (free agent, signed with the Cubs)
- Luis Urías (free agent, signed with the A’s)
- JT Chargois (non-tendered, signed with the Rangers)
- Austin Voth (non-tendered, signed with the Lotte Marines of NPB)
- Josh Rojas (non-tendered, signed with the White Sox)
But even with Jerry Dipoto and company’s quiet offseason, the Mariners remain positioned to win the AL West, possibly joining the Astros and Rangers in that pursuit. FanGraphs’ projections currently have all three division rivals winning 84 games; PECOTA, on the other hand, is a bit more optimistic about Texas (90 wins) and Houston (88 wins), with Seattle currently forecasted to win 85 to 86 games. In other words, there isn’t much separation between the three teams.
Even without George Kirby to start the season due to right shoulder inflammation, this rotation likely remains one of the best in baseball, with Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, and Emerson Hancock. With that said, this group has some regression risk, especially if Kirby’s absence is prolonged. Their bullpen stands to improve with Gregory Santos back in action and Matt Brash possibly available by May. Andrés Muñoz returns as the closer, and with the organization’s reputation for developing average to above-average relievers out of the blue, they shouldn’t have an issue in this area. Overall, the pitching staff ought to remain the strength of this roster, for good reason.
The lineup, however, remains somewhat enigmatical. Again, production at the plate saw an uptick once Arozarena and Robles were brought aboard. I am particularly curious to see how Robles performs in 2025 compared to his breakout performance after Seattle signed him last June. Most of that curiosity lies within his .388 BABIP in 262 plate appearances as a Mariner. Is this something he can come close to replicating, or will regression significantly impact his performance? It is worth noting that not one qualified hitter had a BABIP higher than Seiya Suzuki’s .370 mark last season. If Robles can prove he can maintain a relatively high BABIP, then Seattle has to feel better about their lineup.
Then there is Julio Rodríguez, the franchise cornerstone, who had a down season at the plate in 2024. While his strikeout and walk rates were relatively similar to his previous seasons, Rodríguez saw a noticeable decrease in his power output, with a .409 slugging percentage and a .136 ISO representing career lows in this regard. Considering how his swing tendencies and on-base skills hadn’t eroded much, the odds of him regressing the other way regarding power appear high. Regardless, the Mariners need him to return closer to that superstar level in 2022 (148 wRC+) for their lineup to take that next step.
The rest of the lineup remains relatively unchanged, for better or worse. Cal Raleigh projects as the best or second-best catcher in baseball. J.P. Crawford’s performance imploded in 2024 (89 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR), coming off a 136 wRC+ and a nearly five-win campaign the season before. Second base is a bit of a mess, with Ryan Bliss and Dylan Moore currently projected to play most of the time. One of their top position prospects, Cole Young, could see an opportunity at second base if the stars align. Polanco comes back to cover third base, but like the situation at second, the projections aren’t great. The Mariners’ top prospect, Colt Emerson, is possibly the third baseman of the future, but the 19-year-old may still be a season or two away. Arozarena, Rodríguez, and Robles will be the primary three outfielders and possibly comprise most of the offensive firepower in conjunction with Raleigh.
Ultimately, the pressure is on Dipoto and his front office for the 2025 season. Fresh off a postseason appearance in 2022 for the first time since 2001, the Mariners have failed to qualify in each of the past two seasons. John Stanton’s unwillingness in the past two offseasons to spend in free agency in a winnable division also looms quite large. This organization is banking heavily on bounce-back campaigns from Rodríguez and Crawford, in addition to an entire season from Arozarena and Robles, to improve the lineup while hoping any regression from the pitching staff is minimal. However, winning only 54% of their games in 2025 might be enough to get the job done in this division.