New second basemen could push Altuve into left
I think everyone in the Astros orbit knew they weren’t done. They also knew that there weren’t any major moves that were going to happen either. The front office is in the tinkering phase of the offseason where a tiny move here and a tiny move there could add a win or two to the bottom line. In that vain, the Astros signed former Colorado Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. Those of us that follow the game usually call those NRI contracts for short.
Rodgers has been the regular second baseman in Denver since 2021, but the club decided to non-tender him in lieu of giving him an arbitration raise. I am loathe to look at Coors Field numbers at all since so many of them are cartoonish in nature. Even looking at just the road numbers can be misleading. After all, most players play better at home than on the road.
However, the stat geeks do have some numbers that are adjusted for park effects that we could look at. Some of you may remember about a week ago when I made the suggestion of playing Mauricio Dubon at second base and Jose Altuve in left field. The idea is that the overall value of the team would increase because you would have Dubon at his best defensive position and hopefully get closer to neutral defense out of Altuve.
All that being said, bringing in Rodgers actually changes the calculus on that some. NRI contracts are by their very definition low risk. If Rodgers doesn’t hit then he gets cut or sent to the minors. When we look at his numbers over the last three years and compare them with Dubon we will notice a few things.
I should start by outlining the numbers we will use. I like to include wOBA and xwOBA because they are weighted including home ballpark effects. I’ll also include strikeout rate, walk rate, BABIP, and chase rate because those tend to be portable statistics as well. On the defensive side we will look at defensive runs saved and outs above average (DRS and OAA).
Brendan Rodgers
2022: .321 wOBA, .326 xwOBA, .304 BABIP, 17.4% K, 7.9% BB, 26.9% chase, +22 DRS, +3 OAA
2023: .307 wOBA, .321 xwOBA, .316 BABIP, 21.4% K, 5.7% BB, 29.4% chase, -1 DRS, 1 OAA
2024: .314 wOBA, .295 xwOBA, .338 BABIP, 24.5% K, 5.8% BB, 27.1% chase, +4 DRS, -3 OAA
Aggregate: .314 wOBA, .314 xwOBA, .319 BABIP, 21.1% K, 6.5% BB, 27.8% chase, +8 DRS, 1 OAA
The aggregate is always a view in the rearview mirror. I would never use it to base a projection on. The key way to look at these numbers is with a little bit of imagination. How do they compare to the outfielders still on the board? How do they compare to the candidates in house? I’m not a huge Rogers fan. The power never materialized and that comes from Coors Field. The strikeout numbers are a little too high for my liking and that is definitely true when looking at the walk rate.
The aggregate is also not likely realistic for the fielding numbers either. That 2022 season looks like one of those out of context seasons players have every now and then. Sure, it allows the press release to read “Astros sign Gold Glove second baseman” but it’s probably not who he is as a fielder. He is probably closer to neutral.
Mauricio Dubon
2022: .248 wOBA, .272 xwOBA, .221 BABIP, 11.3% K, 4.9% BB, 38.0% chase, +2 DRS, +2 OAA
2023: .311 wOBA, .303 xwOBA, .308 BABIP, 14.2% K, 3.9% BB, 40.6% chase, +5 DRS, -1 OAA
2024: .286 wOBA, .272 xwOBA, .299 BABIP, 12.9% K, 3.7% BB, 41.2% chase, +2 DRS, +2 OAA
Aggregate: .282 wOBA, .282 xwOBA, .276 BABIP, 12.8% K, 4.2% BB, 39.9% chase, +3 DRS, +1 OAA
I should immediately point out two things. The fielding numbers for Dubon represent only his time at second base. Therefore, he did not get a season’s worth of innings there. We estimated based on a full season of innings that he would be closer to +10 DRS and maybe as much as +5 in OAA over the past three years on a full season basis.
Words cannot describe how much I dislike this hitting profile. I hate free swingers. One of the areas of praise Dana Brown should get is his ability to reshape the Astros 2025 lineup into something more patient and selective. Obviously, there are still free swingers like Altuve, Pena, and Diaz, but the bulk of the other hitters are more selective. Going with Rodgers over Dubon would be a continuation of that effort.
Final Analysis
There are points in both of their favors at this point. Obviously, much of it is going to come down to what Rodgers can show them this spring. If we see a glimpse of 2021 or 2022 Rodgers (offensively and defensively) then the job should be his no questions asked. If we see the 2024 version then the question gets a lot muddier.
I should openly address comments made on the air yesterday on 610 AM in the afternoon. They were lamenting the fact that Altuve would be taking the spot of Dubon who is a superior defensive outfielder. To put this bluntly, more than one thing can be true at the same time. Yes, he is a superior defensive outfielder to everyone but Jake Meyers. However, second base is his best defensive position and it isn’t particularly close.
This makes him slightly more valuable than Rodgers overall since 2023. That being said, choosing Rodgers as the everyday second baseman doesn’t mean Dubon ceases to be valuable. His best value is his versatility. He can defend every position well and very few players have that skill. Allowing him to be the first guy off the bench regardless of position affords him the opportunity to utilize that skill.
Rodgers will have to earn the spot by showing he is more than a Coors Field creation. The BABIP numbers in particular are likely unsustainable. The spacious surroundings force outfielders to play deep which increase the number of singles players can hit. A .300 BABIP is likely more realistic for him moving forward which means his aggregate batting average drops 20 points. The Astros should plan accordingly. If he is merely average defensively then is his offense superior enough to make up the difference? It’s an interesting question and a hard decision at the end of March. Stay tuned.