There could be some unexpected new faces on the Astros roster this year
We’re about 2/3s through Spring Training, enough time for a few patterns to emerge. Of course, Spring Training performance is a poor predictor of regular season performance, although I can think of many instances where it had relevance.
On the margins, Spring Training performance can determine who gets on the Opening Day roster and who goes to the minors or is released. Let’s take a look at what Spring Training is telling us so far.
First, the Astros are performing poorly offensively as a team, something those of us who have been following Spring Training have sensed intuitively. The team BA and OPS are both 28th in MLB this Spring. Ostensible OD starters are many of the culprits here. with Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Yainer Diaz hitting near or substantially below OPS .600. However, in recent games, these three have shown signs of breaking out, and will most likely perform near expected levels in the season.
The pitching has been more middling, with ERA rated eighth, WHIP 19th, and BAA 11th. The top three in the ostensible OD rotation, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti look ready, although last year’s Cinderella, Ronel Blanco, has looked very shaky, with a 9.00 ERA. Many analysts wonder if Blanco’s breakthrough in 2024 was a fluke. Everyone expects some negative regression. Let’s hope that Spring Training isn’t a harbinger of a crash landing in 2025.
On the offensive side, let’s look at how Spring Training could impact the back end of the OD roster.
One of the competitions to look for is between Zach Dezenzo and Shay Whitcomb for split utility infield/outfielder. So far, it’s all Dezenzo, hitting OPS .988 to Whitcomb’s .573, who continues to look shaky in the field. Should probable OD starters Jake Meyers or Chas McCormick play badly at the start, Dezenzo looks like a candidate for right field. Likewise, Dezenzo could be a replacement if first baseman Christian Walker doesn’t make a full recovery from his recent injury before Opening Day,
As far as Chas And Jake go, they have picked up of late, currently sitting at .707 and .834, respectively.
The elephant in the room is #1 prospect Cam Smith, whose 1.292 OPS leads the team. He has cooled off of late, and I still believe his lack of experience in high minors and outfield defense means he will go down before the season begins.
Jon Singleton continues to barely cling to a place in the major leagues. He is out of options, and if sent down, he will be released. At best, he will stay as a backup first baseman and left-handed pinch hitter, but his current .276 OPS is not helping his case. Besides Dezenzo, other backup first base options are backup switch-hitting catcher Victor Caratini, OPS .764. Using Caratini becomes even more plausible considering the possible #3 catcher, Cesar Salazar is killing it with a 1.135 OPS and also hits left-handed.
Regarding pitching, the 1-4 spots in the rotation have already been discussed. The fifth slot in still open, with Hayden Wesneski in the driver’s seat. His 3.72 ERA looks 5th starterish, along with a less impressive 1.45 WHIP and seven walks in 9.2 innings.
Waiting in the wings is Ryan Gusto, 1.35 ERA and Colton Gordon, 3.86 ERA. A. J. Blubaugh has received some consideration as a possible depth starting option, but his 9.35 Spring performance has probably set him back in this regard.
After Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu (scoreless in ST) and Tayler Scott, the Astros bullpen is still wide open. Two players are out of options and if not on the roster, must be put on waivers: Rafael Montero and Forrest Whitley. Considering the money they’ve already spent on Montero, his 3.60 ERA might be good enough for one last look. And as a former MLB Top 10 prospect, Whitley seems to be locking down a spot with his 1.80 ERA.
One pleasant surprise is Luis Contreras, who in six innings has not allowed a run with eight Ks and a 0.90 WHIP. Even the four hits allowed were mostly of the infield variety. Similarly, Steven Okert has thrown seven scoreless with 10 Ks and a 0.29 WHIP. Logan Van Wey is another dark horse, with an even 1.00 ERA in nine innings with eight strikeouts, five walks, and a somewhat elevated 1.33 WHIP.
Tayler Scott is somewhat to relievers what Ronel Blanco is to starters. Many believe his breakthrough season in 2024 is a fluke. So far, his 9.00 Spring ERA does not disprove that thesis.
Obviously, no professional talent analyst would base roster positions solely on Spring Training stats, but if all else is equal, they might carry some weight. These are the lessons I’ve learned so far from Spring Training. Is there anything I missed? Share your thoughts below.