Last week, I posted a payroll update for the 2025 season, noting the Astros’ position regarding the competitive balance tax. At the time, I also provided a breakdown of what I view as the three most commonly used sources for player payroll information.
- Cot’s Baseball Contracts (Baseball Prospectus): $241,967,334
- RosterResource (FanGraphs): $244,088,334
- Spotrac: $240,378,333
The first competitive balance tax threshold is $241 million, so Dana Brown and company obviously have little room to operate if Jim Crane wants to avoid paying a tax in 2025. If anything else, they’ll need to eventually move some salary to dip below it. To be clear, those figures from last week did include arbitration figures, but only projected numbers. An inexact estimate that could sway where the Astros stand from a competitive balance tax situation in either direction.
Earlier this week, Houston settled with all eight of its arbitration-eligible players, providing additional clarity about the club’s player payroll situation for 2025. Below are the eight settlements, totaling $44,750,000.
- Framber Valdez: $18 million
- Jeremy Peña: $4.1 million
- Bryan Abreu: $3.45 million
- Isaac Paredes: $6.625 million
- Chas McCormick: $3.4 million
- Mauricio Dubón: $5 million
- Jake Meyers: $2.3 million
- Luis Garcia: $1.875 million
The Astros now have the benefit of clarity with these settlements, especially as they do have time to figure out the tax situation for 2025. After all, the competitive balance tax isn’t calculated until the season’s conclusion later in the year, so there is time to plan. From the outside looking in, Crane and the rest of the ownership interests will likely wait until the trade deadline if this club remains competitive before authorizing a direction to cut salary to dip below that $241 million threshold. If the payroll situation doesn’t drastically change, even partial salaries moved at the deadline should accomplish that task without too much issue.
So, where do the three sites I highlighted earlier put the Astros’ current player payroll? It’s relatively close to that first threshold.
- Cot’s Baseball Contracts (Baseball Prospectus): $243,842,334
- RosterResource (FanGraphs): $244,063,334
- Spotrac: N/A (Doesn’t appear complete at the moment as it shows roughly $236 million; will update later)
According to at least two sites above, the Astros are close to $3 million over the initial $241 million threshold. Once I assume it is fully updated, Spotrac will probably reflect roughly the same amount. In other words, Brown and his front office don’t have much payroll space to maneuver around. This club could arguably use another reliever and a left-handed outfield bat. The lineup, in particular, remains too heavy with right-handed hitters. If they sign a left-handed outfielder to help balance the lineup, we could look at a player payroll of roughly $250 million, perhaps a bit less. Again, any tax decisions all hinge on whether this club is competitive this year and if Crane is willing to exceed any threshold for a second consecutive season. The good news is they have until late July to determine their direction in this regard.