Looking at Team Batting Splits and Projections
As we approach spring training, we have a better idea of the roster options. Let’s take another look at the projections for Astros players. We now have pre-season projections for both Steamer and ZIPS on the fangraphs roster resources.
Team Splits
I have written previously about the Astros’ need for a LHB outfielder. After the trade of Kyle Tucker, the batting order doesn’t have enough LHBs, which leads to an imbalanced composition of LH and RH bats. To assess how the projection systems view the Astros’ 2025 splits against LHP and RHP, I calculated team OPS based on Steamer’s playing time assumptions against LH and RH pitchers.
Fangraphs has a new feature for Steamer that permits selection of versus LHP or RHP projections. Steamer estimates the plate appearances by each Astros’ player against lefties and righties, which I utilized to calculate a weighted average OPS for the team.
Fangraphs provides more limited left/right splits projections for the ZIPS projection system (shown in Dan Symborski’s articles). For the most part, the ZIPS projections for the Astros’ batters were similar to the Steamer projections. However, Steamer’s splits projection for four players appeared to be optimistic compared to ZIPS, and for those players I substituted the ZIPS projection versus RHP, as shown below.
(player vs. RHP; Steamer OPS; ZIPS OPS)
Versus RHP
Walker Steamer .773 ; .ZIPS .753
Meyers Steamer .676 ; .ZIPS .655
Pena Steamer .707 ; .ZIPS .676
Dubon Steamer 673 ; .ZIPS .651
All else equal, we would expect RHB hitters to have a higher OPS projection vs. LH pitchers, and LHB hitters to have a higher OPS projection vs. RH pitchers. I would caution against over reliance on the absolute values, because the playing time projections may not factor in unexpected injuries. The magnitude of platoon differences is the most important takeaway. The weighted average projected OPS and OPS+ versus RH and LH pitchers:
Astros Team OPS and OPS+
Vs. RHP
OPS .745 OPS+ 1.06
vs. LHP
OPS OPS .786 OPS+ 1.12
Given the platoon composition of the Astros, as expected the Astros are projected to perform better against LHP than RHP. The platoon differential for the Astros is projected to be 41 points of OPS, which is relatively large. For example, in 2024 the average platoon differential for MLB teams was 11 points of OPS.
The projected OPS vs. RHB is 11 points less than the Astros OPS vs. RHP in 2024. The projected OPS vs. LHB is 31 points higher than the Astros OPS vs. LHP in 2024. The projections are showing a trend that we might expect from bolstering RHB offense and decreasing LHB offense. But the downside is that most pitchers are right handed. If the Astros face 60% RH pitchers and 40% LH pitchers, the overall OPS+ would be around 1.08, which is approximately the same as 2024.
Although the size of the Astros platoon split is large, the Astros still are projected to hit at an above average rate against their less favored RHP side. Yordan Alvarez is a big reason for that. He is the only regular LHB, and he mashes against both LH and RH pitchers. In addition, several other Astros’ regulars are RHB who are above average batters against RH pitchers. Diaz, Paredes, and Altuve are examples.
Therefore, the acquisition of a LH outfielder is about optimizing the Astros’ offense. Most projections show the Astros’ offense ranked among the top 7 MLB offenses. However, adding a competent LH platoon bat in the outfield would improve the offensive results.
At this late stage of the off-season, we don’t have any indication whether the Astros will acquire a LH bat for the outfield. But my previous articles have speculated as to whether former Astros Jayson Heyward or Ben Gamel could be additions for the LH platoon role. The projections seem to favor Gamel as the better platoon hitter. Against RH pitchers, ZIPS projects a .686 OPS for Heyward and .714 for Gamel. Steamer projects the two as similar against RHP, giving Gamel a 104 wRC+ and Heyward a 102 wRC+.
Taylor Trammel as the Platoon OF?
It’s possible that the Astros acquired Taylor Trammel as the LH platoon outfielder. The only other LHB option is AAA outfielder Jacob Melton, but neither Steamer or ZIP project him as ready for the major leagues (ZIPS gives him a .630 OPS against RHPs).
Trammel has previous ML appearances with four teams (mostly Seattle), and the results weren’t great, albeit in a small sample size. When he was acquired, most of us assumed that Taylor would be a long shot to make the major league roster. But surprisingly both Steamer and ZIPS are more optimistic about Trammel. ZIPS projects a 110 wRC+ with 16 HRs. Steamer projects a .702 OPS as a platoon bat, which is higher than Dubon, McCormick, or Meyers against RHP. Trammel appears to have a profile of low batting average, high K%, high BB%, good HR power. There is certainly room for skepticism of his projections, but it’s possible that a larger sample size is necessary to evaluate his ability.
Dana Brown likely has some familiarity with Trammel’s talent. Trammel is a former 1st round draft pick who was the MVP of the Futures Game in 2019. Trammel was a 2 sport star at his Georgia high school, and caught 37 TDs as a football wide receiver. Harold Reynolds and Robert Flores interview Trammel at this link from MLB Network.
Some Batting Comparisons Between ZIPS and Steamer
Since ZIPS and Steamer projections are both available now, we can identify some of the Astros’ players who are viewed differently by the two systems.
- Looking at the new acquisitions, Steamer likes Walker better than ZIPS, and ZIPS likes Paredes better than Steamer. The Paredes difference is slight: ZIPS 127 wRC+ and Steamer 126 wRC+. ZIPS is not as high on Walker as Steamer: ZIPS 116 wRC+ with 26 HR; Steamer 124 wRC+ with 32 HR.
- Steamer is more optimistic about Dubon and Pena than ZIPS. Dubon: ZIPS 92 wRC+ and Steamer 95 wRC+ Pena: ZIPS 99 wRC+ and Steamer 107 wRC+.
- ZIPS is slightly more optimistic about Jake Meyers than Steamer: ZIPS 98 wRC+ and Steamer 97 wRC+. ZIPS and Steamer have the same wRC+ for McCormick: 103.
- ZIPS likes Dezenzo, Whitcomb, and Leon more than Steamer. Dezenzo is projected at 105 wRC+ by ZIPS and 99 wRC+ by Steamer. His ZIPS projection is quite good for a rookie Whitcomb: 98 wRC+ ZIPS; 89 wRC+ Steamer. That is a pretty big difference. And Leon fares better with ZIPS: 92 wRC+ ZIPS; 85 wRC+ with Steamer. Essentially ZIPS is higher on the Astros’ young prospects than other projection systems.
I’ve come to an end….any thoughts?