The second in a two part series
On Friday, we took a look at the per 500 projections for the Astros infielders. This time, we are taking a look at the outfielders. We have also excluded a few players from this treatment. Jon Singleton, Zach Dezenzo, and Shay Whitcomb have been excluded. I don’t want to give any spoilers, but when you look at Ben Gamel’s numbers you will see the problem of dealing with small sample sizes.
Just like last time, we are looking at the numbers that comprise Bill James’ total runs. We will also include the runs above replacement for those seasons as well. All numbers have been adjusted to be over exactly 500 plate appearances. From there, we will see an average over the four seasons, an optimistic average (worst season removed), and pessimistic average (best season removed). Depending on the player, one of those numbers will make more sense as a frame of reference.
Jose Altuve
I should point out two immediate things here. First, these numbers are per 500 plate appearances and not a reflection of what the players will ACTUALLY do. In three out of four seasons, Altuve had well over 600 plate appearances. So, even if we accept the pessimistic rate, it doesn’t mean he is merely a three win player. He would be a three win player in an environment where he only got 500 plate appearances.
Secondly, the fielding numbers represent his work at second. We have already looked at what a switch to left COULD look like, but again that could be one of the biggest wildcards of the season. I think given the push and pull factors of fielding runs and positional adjustment, we can probably just assume he will come close to breaking even.
I’m incined to go pessimistic because we just don’t know how long the prime will last. All players hit a wall where they become more ordinary or start breaking down. It just comes at different times for different players. The odds of getting to that point increase a ton with each passing season.
Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is due to play less left field than before. That does two things. First, it hopefully insures that he will remain more healthy and therefore blow by 500 plate appearances. Last season was really the first time he was able to do that. Secondly, it puts his fielding numbers at closer to zero. Obviously, DH as a position is the least valuable position on the diamond, so the Rpos will also be worse.
I’m inclined to go optimistic on Alvarez. At least i think he should be closer to five wins overall because I think he will get around 600 plate appearances again as a full time designated hitter. Obviously, he is the only true all-star level performer left after the team traded Kyle Tucker away and let Alex Bregman walk.
Jake Meyers
I’m not sure if it was the shoulder injury that did him in or if the league simply figured out Meyers, but that first season sticks out like a sore thumb. Therefore, the pessimistic numbers probably are more valuable here than either of the other two. Center field represents one of the flex points for the Astros this season. Based on his defense, Meyers will give you two to three wins depending on how often you play him. However, the offense will be brutal at times.
So, the Astros can go in any number of directions. They can swallow hard and just deal with the shaky offense because of that defense. They can mix and match and try to coax the best they can out of Meyers by platooning him with Mauricio Dubon or someone else. They also could supplant him with Jacob Melton at some point during the season if they feel Melton can handle it. It will be one of the more fascinating story lines of the 2025 season.
Mauricio Dubon
Neither of the three outcomes really match what we can expect from Dubon completely. Offensively, he is probably in the pessimistic category. The 2023 season was an out of context offensive season for him and therefore, probably should be removed overall. However, he could be more valuable defensively depending on how you utilize him. I have made this point before.
If you utilize mostly at second base he likely gets close to two wins even if he isn’t even an average offensive player. If you employ him in center field or God forbid left field then he becomes much less valuable because those positions are less valuable and he is closer to neutral defensively. The use of Dubon as a fungible asset is one of the biggest challenges for Joe Espada. Getting 600 plate appearances at one position is not the best use for him, so figuring out exactly how often to play him and where to play him will present a challenge.
Chas McCormick
I’m sure Dusty Baker is somewhere sipping wine and grinning from ear to ear when he thinks about McCormick. His contention was that he was never a “big boy” and didn’t deserve to play every day. The truth is we have no idea what really happened last season. While he may not be as interesting as Altuve in left or what happens in center, but the amount he can bounce back (if at all) is one of the keys of the season.
Even if we go with the pessimistic average, that will end up being about a two win game over last season, and if we go with the average it is closer to a three win gain. It’s hard to know where to go there because it’s hard to know exactly what happened. It seemed like one of those things where you get off to a bad start and never recover. It could also be a rot that never goes away. I’ll go pessimistic for now, but even that is a marked improvement.
Ben Gamel
First of all, the 2023 looks ridiculous because the sample size is so small. A -33 Rfield would occur if you put one of us in left field or right field. When look at the bigger numbers he seems to settle in at around -10 on a per 500 plate appearance basis. That still isn’t good and it is the main reason why I would have gone with Jason Heyward over Gamel if both were available for the same money.
We don’t know that was definitely the case (even though they signed for similar amounts). We don’t know if Gamel was just okay with having a job while Heyward wanted more guarantees on playing time. Those are also considerations. For a million dollars, getting just above replacement value is fine. I’ll go optimistic on Gamel and assume he will come in at around a win. In 200 to 300 plate appearances that is likely about as good as you can get for a million dollars.