One possible deal to get the ball rolling
In my last HOF index piece I looked at some possible deals that the Astros could make this offseason. In particular I looked at Alex Bregman and whether the team should re-sign him. In that vain, I am going to lay some possible alternatives that they could take to build a team that can compete for a division title under their current constraints.
I am working under two assumptions in this piece. First, I am working under the assumption that Alex Bregman signs elsewhere. Quite simply, this negotiation (if we can call it that) has gone the aame way as the previous ones with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, and George Springer. That leads me to believe he is likely signing elsewhere unless something unforeseen develops.
There are two governing rules to these scenarios. The first is that Jim Crane does not want to elevate the payroll beyond what is already there. We have no way of knowing what his spending limit it, but there are serious ramifications if he goes beyond the tax threshold. If he blows by the second tax threshold those ramifications become more severe. So, we will assume that spending levels will remain constant. Secondly, I put forth these scenarios as exactly that. I am not advocating for any individual scenario. I will come up with a new one each week until the offseason gets underway in earnest.
Others have laid out the facts and I invite you to look over those. Essentially, if we do nothing but keep all the players under contract and give the arbitration eligibles their projected contracts then we have less than ten million dollars to play with. Furthermore, we have two major players not including Bregman that will come due following the 2025 season. So, here goes.
Astros trade Framber Valdez and Ryan Pressly to the Orioles in exchange for Cedric Mullins, third base prospect, and a pitching prospect
When evaluating any deal I like to look first on why each team would do this. I absolutely detest the random call in guy that throws out, “Let’s see the Astros trade Mauricio Dubon for Mike Trout? What do you think? I’ll hang up and listen.” Such a trade proposal is silly on its face. So, I only move forward if it makes sense for both teams.
Why would the Orioles make this deal?
The Orioles are actually in a good position financially to take on salary. Corbin Burnes is a free agent and may or may not stay. They have been short pitching depth and so adding a potential ace like Valdez would be interesting to them. Valdez is projected to make 17.8 million in arbitration this year before become a free agent. Pressly is slated to make around 14 million in his last year. So, the Orioles commit to one year for both and get a potential ace and a backup option at closer if things don’t work out with the rest of their pen.
Bullpen depth was a key issue for the Orioles. O’hearn is someone they were already looking to unload at the trading deadline and could not find a partner. Mullins is someone they signed a couple of years ago, but has seemingly taken a step back in the last couple of seasons. I see this as a trade off they would be willing to make.
Why would the Astros make this deal?
Mullins is arbitration eligible in 2025. He signed for 6.32 million last year in arbitration, so he might sign for between 8 and 10 million next season. So, the team essentially saves around 20 million dollars in the immediate term and gets an upgrade in center field while adding depth to the farm system.
The Mullins question is a complicated one. How much of an upgrade is he over Jake Meyers? We can look at the obvious numbers over the past three seasons and get a basic answer there. However, there are always factors that lie beneath the service that we should look at.
Jake Meyers: 79 OPS+, +15 Rfield, =1 Rbaser, 3.8 BWAR
Cedric Mullins: 105 OPS+, +7 Rfield, +9 Rbaser, 9.4 BWAR
I am ignoring Mullins’ breakout 2021 season as largely irrelevant. I am also ignoring Meyers numbers from that same season. The last three seasons for both players have been pretty consistent. Mullins is essentially a three win player while Meyers has been somewhere between a win and a win and a half.
However, Mullins is coming from a different environment. So, let’s compare Mullins’ road numbers for his career with Meyers home numbers for his career. How differently are they offensively.
Meyers: 575 PA, .229/.290/.371
Mullins: 1382 PA, .247/.316/.386
This actually turned out differently than I would have expected. Essentially you are getting a slightly better player offensively. Even when you include the base running and fielding you are getting a wash on those fronts. Mullins is a little more patient, but the main difference comes in batting average. Mullins is essentially a .250 hitter on the road.
For what it is worth, he has a career .391/.451/.609 park at the Juice Box. This might fall under what we call the “Mark Portugal” rule. The Giants famously signed Portugal because he always pitched well against them. That obviously did not work out well for them. His numbers dropped to .280/.327/.441 against the Astros overall. So, he clearly seemed to like MMP while he was hitting there. I obviously would not predict a .400 average playing a full season in Houston, but something closer to his totals against the Astros might be possible.
Coby Mayo is the top prospect in the Orioles system as rated by MLB.com. He hit .293 with a .964 OPS between two levels in the Orioles system. He might be a tough get, but they do have a few other candidates within their top 30. Joshua Liranzo is in rookie ball. Max Wagner is in double A, so he might be the only other option the Astros could go for.
If I were the general manager of both teams I would have a list of acceptable alternatives. If you want Mayo you get a low level pitching prospect. If you want Wagner you get a better pitching prospect. If I were Dana Brown I would push for Mayo and might even accept a package of just Mullins and Mayo. Making such an arrangement would give you a possible long-term replacement for Bregman while aldo giving you an upgrade over Jake Meyers
What do you do with the savings?
These are the keys to all of these deals. A trade of Framber and Pressly for Mullins and Mayo is not a fair deal on its face. The key is what happens to the other 20 million. If you use around 15 million to sign Yusei Kikuchi and another five million to sign a league average first baseman (Ryan O’Hearn and Carlos Santana are options) then you would have to consider the trade as the following:
Ryan Pressly and Framber Valdez versus Cedric Mullins, Coby Mayo, Yusei Kikuchi, and Carlos Santana. You could make a definite argument that the second group would bring more combined value and possibly free up long-term money for other pieces like a Kyle Tucker extension, Keep in mind this is simply a suggestion. There will be more to come later.