What does the spread the wealth option look like?
As a companion piece to yesterday’s piece on Yuli Gurriel, I thought I would outline my preferred way of spending money and/or resources. This assumes one major thing: if the team is willing to spend 25-30 million a season for Alex Bregman then they are also willing to spend that money collectively on another player or a group of players.
In 2000, the Mariners traded Ken Griffey Jr. for amounted to be Mike Cameron and Brett Tomko. In no universe is that a balanced deal. However, since those players made very little, they were able to use the money that had slotted for Griffey to get additional players that offseason. One of those was obviously Ichiro Suzuki. Maybe Ichiro comes regardless but those collection of moves enabled them to win 114 games.
Baseball is a different sport. Depth wins championships. Those 1990s Mariners teams were top heavy with four future Hall of Famers. They won one World Championship between them and it wasn’t in Seattle. We can sign Alex Bregman to a contract until his late thirties and it probably would work out reasonably well. We can also split that money up multiple ways and get more bang for our buck.
What follows is just one of those plans. It would be my plan and it is based on data that I’m looking at. I should point out that many in the comments have made alternate suggestions. I’m not opposed to some of those either. The general idea is that we don’t need to be a four or five deep lineup. We need a seven or eight deep lineup.
Free Agency
I personally would sign Yuli Gurriel either as a non-roster invitee or to a veteran minimum deal. Absolutely allow him to compare with Zach Dezenzo for the job, but here are some key behind the scenes numbers that scare me. We are looking merely at strikeout rate, walk rate, contact rate, and chase rate.
Yuli Gurriel: 23.1% Krate, 13.8% BBrate, 79.3% contact, 25.4% chase
Zach Dezenzo: 33.8% Krate, 4.6% BBrate, 69.8% contact, 32.4% chase
Will Dezenzo be that bad with more playing time? I doubt it. Steamer is projecting the K rate just under 29 percent and the walk rate just under eight percent. That’s better, but that’s a dangerously high K rate. Gurriel may not have enough in the tank to be much better and if that is the case you likely will move onto to Dezenzo. I want him to earn the spot and not have it given to them.
The selections at third base are not nearly as appetizing once Bregman goes off the board. However, I would sign Yoan Moncada. His AAV on his contract was 14.0 before he was non-tendered. Spoctrac has his market value set at 1.5 million. He was hurt for most of 2024, so let’s split the difference. That would put him at just under eight million dollars. Let’s say 7.5 million for math reasons.
Yoan Moncada: 24.4% Krate, 11.1% BBrate, 75.6% contact, 25.5% chase
The general idea is that we want more guys that have lower chase rates because that usually results in more walks, longer plate appearances, and better contact in general. You already have some free swingers in the lineup like Altuve, Pena, and and Diaz. Surrounding them with patient hitters will reduce the negative effects of their free swinging.
I have a number of options in left field, but if I want added roster flexibility there is one guy that rises to the top. Mark Canha can play left field and first base. You could conceivably add him and simply bypass Gurriel altogether. Canha’s AAV was 13.25 million but Spotrac has his market value at 2.5 million. Again, we are splitting the difference and signing him for seven million.
Mark Canha: 20.8% Krate, 11.0% BBRate, 80.7% contact, 21.7% chase rate
We are beginning to see a pattern here. Even without Gurriel we are adding two players with walk rates north of ten percent and chase rates around 25 percent or less. These kinds of guys will lengthen the lineup. No, they are not going to Cooperstown unless they buy a ticket. Hell, they aren’t coming anywhere near an all-star game. Still, they are big league average players that raise your floor.
Trade
My last move would require a trade. At this point, I am just throwing out suggestions and am willing to take the slings and arrows (or rotten tomatoes) of the gallery. We already know that Ryan Pressly is on the trade block. We also know that the Baltimore Orioles again had issues with their pen. You could flip Pressly and their choice of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers in exchange for Cedric Mullins.
Mullins is already on the books for an estimated 8.42 million in arbitration. Doing this upgrades center field so that while downgrading third base overall, you are upgrading first base, left field, and center field. For those doing the math at home, we have added four players (Gurriel, Canha, Moncada, and Mullins) for a combined 24 million dollars. That doesn’t even account for the combined contracts of Ryan Pressly and McCormick or Meyers going out the door.
Cedric Mullins: 19.6% Krate, 8.2% BBrate, 82.5% contact, 27.4% chase
So, you have effectively added four hitters with above average rates in these four statistics accross the board. Add that to Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker and you have six players in most lineups that can say the same. Players like Altuve, Diaz, and Pena can say that in at least two categories listed above. This gives you a lineup that is potentially nine hitters deep.
As I said in the opening, there are other players at some of these spots that offer the same thing. I have just offered one suggestion. However, in general I am almost always in favor of adding multiple players instead of just one. The 2024 Astros did not have a star power issue. They had a depth issue and an approach like this would change that. Obviously, if you have different suggestions I am all ears.