A hypothetical comparison
Free agency in professional sports is a lot like a keg party. Binge drinking seems like a fun idea at the time, but the next morning is a rude awakening. Meanwhile, go out for a couple of drinks with some friends and the beginning might not be as exciting, but the end result is usually better. Free agency is usually the same way. The big signings seem fun and create a stir, but the smaller ones are usually more effective.
We will focus today on two players that have been mentioned in Astros rumors related to their opening(s) in the corner outfield. The first is the last big dollar outfielder on the board. Anthony Santander has supposedly been offered a four year, 80 million contract by the Toronto Blue Jays.
He peculiarly hasn’t taken it. That means one of three things. First, there are other suitors that are offering something similar and he is trying to choose between the offers. Secondly, he really doesn’t want to be a Blue Jay and is hoping someone will step up and offer something similar. Finally, he thinks he is worth more than that.
Earlier in the offseason I mentioned something called “the platoon advantage”. The general idea is that you can sign two players that excel against opposite hurlers and combine them into one functional player. When you sign a player that is equally successful against both righties and lefties you usually pay a premium. Below are the 2024 and career splits for Santander.
2024 Righties: .239/.309/.513
2024 Lefties: .225/.306/.488
Career Righties: .243/.302/.470
Career Lefties: .253/.320/.467
The 2024 numbers are obviously better across the board and that is especially true in terms of slugging. You would expect him to be better against right-handed pitching and he was slightly better in 2024, but he is the kind of player you can play against lefties and feel okay. That kind of versatility and production comes with a cost. Santander is very much a good news/bad news player.
The good news is that Baltimore is not a particularly good place to hit and that has become more pronounced in the last couple of seasons following changes to their outfield dimensions. Everyone focuses on the short porch at Minute Maid Park, but the right field is one of the friendliest in baseball as well. The home and road splits from last season are very encouraging.
Home: .218/.299/.457
Away: .251/.317/.549
26 of his 44 home runs came on the road last season. He has a career OPS at MMP over .800 in spite of having an overall OPS against Astros pitching below .750. So, he obviously historically has liked hitting in Houston. So, based on his relative success against lefties and righties along with his success away from Camden Yards and you’d be forgiven if a Santander signing would have you all giddy.
However, Santander comes with some very large caveats. In terms of the style of hitter, he is a lot closer to Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Pena than he is to Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, and Isaac Paredes. He has a career chase rate over 35 percent and that is considerably worse than the league average. The strikeout rates and walk rates are fairly respectable, but when you start stacking free swingers in a lineup you can see games where a starting pitcher goes deeper into the game without breaking a sweat.
Let’s juxtapose that with another outfielder that has been linked to Houston. MLBTR is reporting that the Astros are one of the teams interested in Alex Verdugo. If Santander is a night of binge drinking then Verdugo might be the baseball equivalent of a wine cooler. He is coming off of a season that saw him put up an 83 OPS+. The hype machine is not coming to town if you sign him, but he probably comes with a pillow contract where you can easily move on following the season.
2024 Righties: .235/.282/.388
2024 Lefties: .228/.311/.281
Career Righties: .280/.334/.447
Career Lefties: .253/.314/.337
If we just simply assume that 2024 never happened and focus on the career numbers you can see why he will likely be signed for less than half of what Santander is going to go for. However. he is nearly as good when you look at his performance against just righties. If we throw 2024 back into the conversation we see that his chase rates, contact rates, and strikeout rates remained fairly constant. His BABIP plummeted to .251 even though he has a career mark above .290.
It is those K rates, BB rates, and chase rates that are the key here. If the Astros want to restructure a more patient offense then they have to assemble a lineup with patient hitters. You could easily pair Verdugo with one of the young hitters and possibly come close to approximating the numbers that Santander would come up with for less than half the price.
If you wanted a more veteran laden team and were willing to spend close to the amount of one Santander you could add Mark Canha for a natural platoon. Both Verdugo and Canha can theoretically play both corner outfield slots and Canha can also play some first if you need him to. Below are Canha’s platoon splits.
2024 Righties: .229/.330/.328
2024 Lefties: .275/.380/.395
Career Righties: .252/.356/.407
Career Lefties: .244/.335/.428
Like Verdugo, Canha is a guy that doesn’t chase often. Last season he chased less than 24 percent of the time. Those numbers came with a strikeout rate around 20 percent and a walk rate around 10 percent. There is some swing and miss there, but you would be constructing a lineup that does not chase.
Add to that the fact that Verdugo is a plus defender and there would be reasons to feel better about adding Verdugo and Canha for less than the price of one Santander. Looking at Canha’s numbers also makes you realize both can play at the same time against righties without really killing you. You can at least wake up in the morning without a huge hangover.