Okert steps forward for bullpen opening…reminder about spring stats…and Rangers’ injuries
An important question for the Astros to answer this spring training is the composition of the bullpen. After trading Ryan Pressly to the Cubs, the main bullpen issue is how the Astros will bridge the gap to reach the two late inning relievers, Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader. Based on last season’s performance, my guess is that Tayler Scott will be the “next in line” reliever. But beyond those three pitchers, quite a few pitchers are competing for three or four more slots in the bullpen.
In an earlier article, I suggested that the Astros are looking for this spring’s Tayler Scott. As you may recall, last spring Scott was brought in as a journeyman pitcher to compete in the bullpen. We didn’t know much about Scott, but he responded with a complete shutdown performance that spring, made the opening day roster, and proceeded to become one of the most reliable arms in the bullpen. I suppose there are several pitchers this spring who could produce that same kind of surprise. VanWay and Contreras have looked very good so far and either one could end up on the opening day roster. However, I think the No. 1 candidate to provide a Scott-like surprise this spring is non-roster invitee (NRI) Steven Okert.
In 8.1 innings of work, the lefty Okert has allowed 0 hits and 0 runs. And it’s not really the small sample size ERA that is important. It’s the way he has dominated hitters from both the RH and LH side. He has been a whiff machine, with a 14.8 K/9 , a 2.01 BB/9. and a 0.23 WHIP. Okert’s delivery is naturally tough on lefthanders, but the improvement in the way he has handled RH batters is crucial.
Okert operates with a deceptive delivery and relies upon a plus slider, a 4 seam FB, a change up and a sinker. The slider and change up have looked effective when I watched this spring. Okert has thrown fastballs up in the zone from a low arm slot. The Astros seem to like the deceptively flat fastball when a pitcher throws the 4 seamer from a low arm slot to high in the zone. Both Spencer Arrighetti and Tayler Scott come to mind.
On the surface, Okert’s performance in prior seasons appears volatile. As a Giant and Marlins pitcher, he has experienced three seasons with sub-3 ERA followed by a much higher ERA in 2023 (4.53) and 2024 (5.09 ERA). But if you look at his Statcast expected ERA for those seasons, Okert’s ERA is more stable and bounded in a more narrow range. Okert’s x-ERA from 2021 to 2024: 3.10, 3.22, 3.87, 4.05. This suggests an ERA range from the low 3’s to 4, which looks more like a candidate who can help the Astros bullpen.
Since the number of LHPs who can make the bullpen probably is limited, Okert likely will be competing with LHPs Bennett Sousa and Bryan King. So far, Okert appears to be ahead of those two relievers this spring. But it’s not over, and anything can happen.
Evaluating Spring Training
A recent Chandler Rome article in the Athletic contained a quote from Astros manager Joe Espada which reminds us that the team evaluates players in spring training differently than maybe fans do:
“I’m looking beyond the stats when it comes to Mac,” manager Joe Espada said on Saturday, emphasizing McCormick’s .429 on-base percentage and nine walks over a .167 batting average.
“He’s swinging at strikes. He’s walking. He’s hit some balls hard. That counts for me because if you do that through the course of the season, the results will be there. I’m pleased with the quality of his at-bats.”
Espada said McCormick is “getting close to what we’ve seen in the past,” specifically a breakout 2023 season in which McCormick posted a 132 OPS+ alongside 41 extra-base hits.
As evidence rhar spring stats don’t predict regular season performance, Rome points out that McCormick slashed .366/.426/.439 last spring, followed by the worst season of his career.
This applies to more than just Chas McCormick. The small sample stats from spring training games are not meaningful in themselves. At the least they should be viewed with some skepticism. The coaches’ evaluation includes the context of knowing what the player is working on, what the coaching staff has asked the player to focus upon, and what opposing pitchers are trying to do. The players’ progress in achieving his objectives probably is more important than the vagaries of BABIP over a 3 or 4 week period. This also applies to pitchers’ spring stats, since they may be working on trying different pitches and/or modifying their delivery.
Texas Rangers Note
Last week I wrote a preview of AL West opponent Texas Rangers. My article concluded that the Rangers, on paper, have an imposing rotation, but the question in real life is whether they can survive future injuries to starting pitchers. Since then two pitchers in the rotation (the 3 and 4 starters) have gone down due to injury. Jon Gray suffered a fractured wrist from a comebacker. He will be out for a lengthy period of time. Cody Bradford has suffered elbow soreness and was shut down for three weeks before he can even begin throwing again. The Rangers ruled out TJ surgery, but the length of time before Bradford can return to the rotation is unknown.
Most likely the young prospects, Kumar and Leiter, will vye for those spots in the rotation. This demonstrates that this strong component of the Rangers, the starting rotation, is vulnerable to injury risk.