Astros Notes: Grand Slams and Cy Young Award

Wondering why the Astros don’t have a grand slam, and looking at how Framber Valdez stacks up for the CYA

From the “I’m just asking questions” department. Here are a couple of notes to start the week. These aren’t the most important questions we can ask about the Astros, but my mind would dwell on them if I didn’t inquire further.

Why don’t the Astros have a grand slam this year?

The Astros and the Red Sox are the only two teams without a grand slam in 2024. This issue has gotten attention in both our game threads and on the game broadcast. I think the Astros’ seeming struggles to produce runs with the bases loaded is one of the reasons the topic enters the conversation.

The average MLB team has hit 4 grand slams. The D-Backs have the most grand slams, 11. Most likely, the range of grand slams reflects random variation. If you imagine a normal distribution curve, the D-Back and Astros/Red Sox reflect the outer boundaries on opposite sides of the bell curve and are more than 1 standard deviation from the mean. It also may reflect teams’ offensive tendencies like OBP (on base percent) and overall HR rates, which obviously affect the teams’ potential to hit grand slams.

But the Red Sox and Astros overall ability to hit HRs and put runners on base doesn’t explain the lack of grand slams. The Astros and Red Sox are ranked 11th and 9th in hitting home runs. The Astros and Red Sox are ranked 7th and 9th in on base percentage. Both teams are above average offensive teams. This supports a conclusion that it’s about sequencing which is more or less random.

Thinking about the Astros, I wonder if the paucity of grand slams is related to the distribution of home runs among batters. Perhaps the best home run hitters don’t have as many chances as the hitters who are less likely to hit HRs. To some extent, this appears to be true. The table below reflects tables with two samples, the Astros batters with 20 HRs or more, and the Astros batters with at least 400 PA who have less than the team average home rate (3.1 HR/PA).

Data: Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference

The Astros’ hitters with lower HR rates faced an average of just over 18 bases loaded situations. But the Astros hitters who average hitting more than twice as many HRs per plate appearance (4.8% vs. 2.2%) faced less than half as many bases loaded situations (8.8 vs. 18.25). Basically the team’s big boppers are at the top of the batting order and therefore see fewer bases loaded situations. For instance, Maurcio Dubon, who has very little power, faced more than three times as many bases loaded situations as Kyle Tucker.

With a team average HR rate of 3.1% and 144 bases loaded situations, the Astros might have been expected to hit more than 4 grand slams—which is the league average. But neither the HR rate or the number of grand slam opportunities are equally distributed among the players. This doesn’t totally explain the zero grand slams, but it may indicate one factor that tends to reduce the Astros’ ability to achieve the league average number of grand slams.

Of course, the batting order isn’t intended just to maximize grand slams. Other men on base situations provide value for HR hitters, and the top four HR hitters generally hit 40%-45% of their home runs with men on base. It’s just that the bases-full situations are less frequent at the top of the order. The Astros’ HR rate is concentrated among four hitters, but it would be interesting to know if a more even distribution of home rates across the lineup would produce more grand slams. In addition, a deeper lineup (with above average hitters spread all the way to the nine slot) probably improves the chances for grand slams.

I think the Astros’ dearth of grand slams is partly an anomaly that occurred randomly. But

the distribution of grand slam opportunities among the players is an additional factor.

How will Framber Valdez rank in the AL Cy Young voting?

At this point, Framber Valdez is the only Astros’ pitcher who is likely to vie for a high ranking in the American league Cy Young Award (CYA) voting. As we near the end of the season, we can get a more clear idea of the best candidates for the AL CYA.

Tango produces a model that has proven effective at predicting CYA winners. The model sums CYA points for each pitcher and provides two variants—-one based on runs allowed and the other based on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). In recent years, the FIP results appear to have gained more influence in the voting. Tango;s X-itter contained an update as of September 21:

Tarik Skubal is far ahead of the pack in the AL, and the model would indicate that he has pretty much wrapped up the AL CYA. Tango’s X post indicates that Valdez is in 3d or 4th place, depending on whether the RA or FIP CY points are utilized. He trails Lugo by 94.3 to 90.4 (FIP version) and 67.7 to 64.3 (RA version). Framber probably will get another start which could improve his CY points. This is something to keep an eye on.

Fangraphs’ web site also includes a version of Tango’s CYA model, but it is unclear how frequently it is updated. Tango’s X post appears to include Valdez’s most recent start, but it is unclear whether that start is included in Fangraphs’s version yet.