Astros have exhibited a concerning recent trend of fielding misplays
The Astros ordinarily are a good fielding team. However, in the last month and a half the Astros have made an uncharacteristic number of errors and misplays. In order to clinch the AL West down the stretch and attempt to progress through the playoffs, the Astros must clean up these errors and misplays.
According to Fangraphs, the Astros playoff odds currently stand at 97%. So it would take a total collapse not to make the playoffs. But if there is a way to make such an unlikely collapse occur, a contagion of errors and misplays would probably do it.
A 2014 Fangraphs Community Research article (”When Teams Collapse,” Henry) considered the 10 worst playoff contending collapses (base on playoff odds) up to that point in time. The season errors/game for each team was compared to the September errors/game. On average the teams that collapsed had a 17% increase in errors per game in September. Only two of the ten teams (1911 Braves and 1999 Reds) did not experience an increase in errors per game.
Errors are not a perfect measure of fielding—I normally rely on advanced fielding metrics instead. But the article above used errors as a proxy for mental lapses on a team. That may or may not be a reasonable assumption. But the fact that these collapse-prone teams tended to increase their error rate in the final month of the pennant race is an interesting point of reference.
Over the past month and a half, my subjective view is that the Astros have committed both uncharacteristic errors as well as misplays which were not ruled to be errors.
The Astros current errors per game (EPG) is 0.51 for the season. For comparison, the Astros’ EPG was 0.49 in 2023, 0.44 in 2022, and 0.43 in 2021. OnJuly 31, the Astros EPG was 0.43. That means the EPG for July 31 to the current date is 0.73. This is close to the 0.78 EPG September average for the 10 teams that collapsed.
I also reviewed the Astros’ pitching staff’s “reached on error” by month. It turns out that the anomalous month is August 2024.
Baseball-Reference.com data
The Astros allowed a lot of runners to reach base by error in August. In the period after July 31, the Astros allowed 19 unearned runs to score. However, so far in September the “reach on error” number is more in line with the months prior to August. I like the Astros’ chances so long as a flurry of errors similar to August does not occur in the remaining two weeks of September. Perhaps the Astros’ fielders are tired as the season comes to an end, but it is essential that they focus on making the fielding plays they are supposed to make. This is both aesthetically pleasing and necessary in order to make it the playoffs and progress through the playoffs.
In the post-season, good teams take advantage of fielding mistakes. That is why the focus on defense is important.