What would the fielding setup look like?
A lot of things are happening and things are up in the air. Dana Brown is wheeling and dealing and it could end up getting really interesting in Houston. It started with reports that the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs were discussing a trade involving Ryan Pressly. Obviously there are a number of complications. The first is that Pressly has 10/5 rights as a player that has ten or more years of experience and five with the same team. So, he has the right to veto any trade.
Add to that the fact that he is slated to make 14 million dollars this next season on what amounts to a one year contract. The Cubs may or may not add other relievers. So, would Pressly be their closer? Would he rather be a closer in Chicago than a setup man in Houston? Are the Cubs willing to take on all 14 million or would they require the Astros to chip in something? Moreover, would any salary come back or would it be a low level minor leaguer? As I write this, we don’t know the answer to any of these questions.
The second development (that may or may not be related) is that the Astros have apparently re-engaged with Alex Bregman. From here there are all kinds of questions. Some reports say that the original six year, 156 million offer is still in place. Is this true? Would it be a pillow contract that would allow him to test the free agent waters again in 2026? Finally, we get to the question of where he would play.
That is the subject of our piece today. We are going to pretend that Pressly is gone. We are going to pretend nothing substantial comes back in return and that trade allows the Astros to afford Bregman. I’m not going to get into what that contract looks like. Today, we are only looking at the plan moving forward with the defense. There are three options:
Number One: Who would make the best left fielder?
It isn’t very hard to figure out that the Astros would have an abundance of infielders and not an established left or right fielder in the house. This is of course assuming that Yordan Alvarez is slated to be a full-time designated hitter. However, let’s throw him into our mix and look at who has defensive innings in left field. We will look at both defensive runs saved and UZR. DRS happens to also mirror Rfield in baseball-reference, so we are getting a good cross section of opinions on each guy. We are looking at just career innings in left field.
Yordan Alvarez: 1617.0 INN, -2 DRS, +2.5 UZR
Chas McCormick: 1299.1 INN, +6 DRS, -0.9 UZR
Mauricio Dubon: 513.0 INN, +1 DRS, -2.7 UZR
Taylor Trammell: 211.2 INN, -4 DRS, 0.1 UZR
Neither Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, or Isaac Paredes have ever played an inning in left field. If we were to say that McCormick should play left field, then that would leave right field without a player. So, let’s assume that McCormick mans right field. So, if we are answering this question and only then question then the best course of action would be to allow Yordan to play left and one of the other three to be a designated hitter.
As you probably have guessed, there is more than one way to look at this and simply focusing on who is the best left fielder is probably the least compelling question. Left field might be the least impactful position defensively and if you play Yordan in the field you drastically increase the odds that he will miss significant time due to injury. So, let’s consider the second option.
Number Two: What is the best all around fielding arrangement?
This is a different question. It involves two different questions. First, there is the question of which position is each guy best at? The second question is which position is generally a priority in terms of overall team defense? There can be different answers to those questions. Jose Altuve has spent nearly every defensive inning at second base. Alex Bregman has played some third base and some shortstop. Isaac Paredes has played every infield position. So, let’s take a look at what each has done over the course of his career.
Jose Altuve: 15219.1 INN, -82 DRS, -39.4 UZR
Alex Bregman: 3B 8578.0 INN, +27 DRS, -6.4 UZR
Alex Bregman: SS 966.0 INN, 0 DRS, -3.8 UZR
Alex Bregman: 2B 32.0 INN, +1 DRS, 0.2 UZR
Isaac Paredes: 3B 2731.1 INN, +6 DRS, -3.3 UZR
Isaac Paredes: 2B 456.2 INN, -3 DRS, -0.1 UZR
Isaac Paredes: SS 49.2 INN, -1 DRS, 0.5 UZR
I will be profiling Jose Altuve’s Hall of Fame credientials in another Hall of Fame Index piece. If he continues at second base it will be a battle between he and Craig Biggio as to who will be the worst fielding second baseman in the Hall of Fame. My vote would actually go to Altuve since Biggio moved around a lot. We will get to more of that in a minute. So, your second base defense likely improves with Bregman or Paredes. The question is whether you are better off with Bregman or Paredes.
Bregman has never played second extensively, but he was more or less neutral in his limited time there. If we add in his neutral play at short we could probably guess he would be a neutral second baseman overall. Paredes is better at third historically so if he gave you league average third base defense, Bregman gave you league average second base defense, and Altuve could be passable in left then you would come out ahead overall defensively.
Number Three: What is best for team harmony?
There are all kinds of precedent here. The most famous example is when the Yankees acquired Alex Rodriguez. There was no universe where Derek Jeter was a better defensive shortstop than Arod. Hell, there probably wasn’t a starting shortstop at the time that was worse than Jeter defensively. However, ARod agreed to move to third because it was better for team chemistry. Did it cost the Yankees some wins? I’m almost certain it did, but it’s hard to calculate comfort. Sometimes a guy needs to take a bullet and take one for the team.
Jose Altuve has reportedly said he would be willing to take that bullet. This makes this a similar situation as when the Astros signed Jeff Kent in 2003. One could argue that Biggio was the last guy you would want in center field. The defensive metrics certainly back that up, but for team chemistry it made sense. He was willing to move and so it made the most sense.
In a similar way, I’m not certain that Altuve is the best option in left field even amongst the guys destined to be regulars in the lineup. In fact, I’m certain he isn’t. However, the overall defense might be better. The impact on his value will also be a net negative for him, but better for the team. The best team leaders make those sacrifices and if he is willing to do that he has moved up in my estimation and I didn’t even know that was possible.