A Deep dive into what could possibly be
If you have read my last few pieces you will have seen some of these numbers have leaked out. We are looking at players on a per 500 plate appearance basis looking at all of the numbers that figure into total runs (as defined by Bill James). We are looking over the past four seasons (if possible). I will also include the four year average, an optimistic average (with the worst season removed), and a pessimistic average (with the best season removed).
Based on the player, one of those three will make the most sense. For our purposes, Mauricio Dubon and Jose Altuve will be listed as outfielders. It is simply a way to divide the players into two equal lists. We are excluding most of the younger players because of lack of a track record. However, adding up the sum total shows us what we might be able to expect this year.
Yainer Diaz
With only seasons to his credit, it is very hard to look at these numbers at face value. I tend to split the difference which means I will go with the average. I don’t think he will be as good as he was in that breakout 2023 season, but I think he will take a marginal step forward from what he produced last season. So, I am going with the average.
One of the key points will be usage. Diaz DHed numerous times last season and played some first base. He isn’t likely to play first at all and will DH only occasionally. They will try to limit him to around 120 starts behind the dish which will keep him fresh, but also reduce his plate appearances. The per 500 numbers are actually more likely to what we will actually see.
Victor Caratini
There are two obvious situations going on here. First, Caratini is noticeably improving each season. However, that does not happen on a 500 plate appearance basis. A lot of that could be due to recent managers managing his opportunities better. So, he will not literally produce nearly two WAR. However, the rates of the optimistic numbers are likely more in line with what he will do.
It is the plate appearances that will be the key issue. Last season they could play Diaz at DH or first base. Caratini could play first as well. With Walker in tow and Yordan slated to DH more he will have to settle for the backup catcher’s spot. It is likely he will get more starts there as they try not to overload Diaz.
Christian Walker
One of the key things to remember is that these numbers are on a per 500 plate appearance basis. Walker was healthier than that in all of the past three seasons. Still, the 2021 season is obviously not indicative of what we would likely see. So, I am going with the positive estimate. He might produce close to 40 runs above replacement in that scenario if he gets in 600 or more plate appearances.
The likelihood is closer to three wins due to the penalties that the stat geeks apply to first basemen. It negates his defensive advantage. What will be interesting is to see what happens to the defensive numbers for the other infielders. Maybe they get a little better across the board.
Brendan Rodgers
Unlike the other guys, I am not optimistic about Rodgers. That 2022 season sticks out like a sore thumb. The primary reason is the fielding numbers. Yes, he won the Gold Glove award, but he was never even neutral in any other season. That makes him worth about a win over 500 plate appearances. That could bump up to a win and a half in a healthy season.
What is much more likely is that if he does make the final roster that he will be involved in some kind of hybrid platoon. If Joe Espada plays his cards right, he can find a way to coax more out of the group collectively than any one person can do on their own. That could end up being Shay Whitcomb or Mauricio Dubon depending on what we see in Spring Training.
Isaac Paredes
The 2021 season sticks out, so the optimistic numbers are obviously the most relevant. Like many of the others, that makes him between a three and four win player depending on a number of factors. Obviously, health is the main one, but also where he plays is going to make a big difference as well. For those just joining us, that is where the RPos stat comes into play. Paredes obviously has played both third and first base primarily. He will not be playing first in all likelihood unless there is a significant injury.
The key question is whether he will be moving to second base for any reason. There are push and pull factors here. The position is slightly more valuable in terms of total runs, but he hasn’t played a lot of the position, so it is likely that he won’t be quite as proficient. Of course, that is just a guess.
Jeremy Pena
In a lot of ways I feel sorry for Jeremy Pena. How do you go from World Series MVP and Gold Glove winner? Everyone expected him to take the next step, but it is looking more and more likely that 2022 was his career year. I could be wrong. Anything is possible, but he has been a fairly consistent player overall once you remove the out of context defensive performance of his rookie season.
Three win players don’t exactly grow on trees. However, he isn’t exactly Hall of Fame material either. Eventually, the Astros will have to make a tough call on both Pena and Diaz. They are both largely three win players with noticeable flaws (read: plate discipline) but who also do some very good things.