Comparing Alex Bregman to another third baseman
One of the things I do in the Hall of Fame Index is utilize the Player A and B test. I would have done this last time, but I noticed the word count getting a bit high and wanted to make sure I wrote something people could actively digest. The Player A and B test has obvious benefits as it pertains to the index and player analysis as a general rule.
I used it before to compare Jose Altuve to Jeff Kent. The general idea is to take one player you love or hate and compare them with a player you care less about. When you remove the names you also remove the preconceived notions you have about the two players you end up making it a more pure analysis. At that point, you can simply compare their numbers and reach a more easily defensible conclusion based on those numbers.
With Bregman we get the obvious problem of him still being active. So, I’m going to do two different things in this piece. First, I will compare the two players’ overall percentage statistics because it is easier to do that. We will look the index, offensive numbers, fielding numbers, playoff statistics, and awards voting. We will also look at the two players cumulative numbers through age 30 because that is where Bregman is now.
The Hall of Fame Index
Player A: 53.7 BWAR, 55.6 FWAR, 47.5 BWAR10, 50.4 FWAR10 = 207.2
Player B: 39.6 BWAR, 39.7 FWAR, 39.6 BWAR10, 39.7 FWAR10 = 158.6
We obviously know that Player B is Bregman. I am not going to reveal Player A yet. However, what I can do is go back to his age 30 season and look at the totals for the index up and until that point. I think you will notice that their careers are on different trajectories and that can be seen when we look at the counting numbers as well. The index is not perfect and was never meant to be. It is simply a way to compare similar players in overall value.
Player A: 30.5 BWAR, 32.5 FWAR, 30.5 BWAR10, 32.5 FWAR10 = 126.0
Player B: 39.6 BWAR, 39.7 FWAR, 39.6 BWAR10, 39.7 FWAR10 = 158.6
It should be noted that Player A achieved those numbers in six full seasons and two seasons with minimal plate appearances (47 combined plate appearances) where Player B has eight full seasons and a partial season to his credit. So, on a per season basis if we simply look at Player A as having six full seasons and Player B as having eight full seasons then we can look at the BWAR and FWAR differently.
Player A: 5.08 BWAR per season, 5.42 FWAR per season
Player B: 4.95 BWAR per season, 4.96 FWAR per season
So, we are looking at two very similar players in terms of value. We could further break down how those wins were parceled out, but I think you get the idea. Bregman has a couple of seasons head start on Player A, but otherwise they are virtually the same as far as the index is concerned.
Offensive Numbers
Player A: 121 OPS+, -16 Rbaser, .369 rOBA, .614 OW%, 1148 runs created
Player B: 132 OPS+, -3 Rbaser, .366 rOBA, .642 OW%, 757 runs created
We should keep two things in mind. First, these two are playing in different eras and different home stadiums, so we have to consider that when looking at the end results. More importantly, Player A’s numbers represent the end results. We can surmise that numbers like OPS+, rOBA, and OW% will get worse for Bregman as he ages. This is all tells me that they are likely to be pretty close in terms of offensive value when it is all said and done.
Player A: 124 OPS+, 3913 PA, .263/.362/.436, 870 hits, 135 HR, 453 Runs, 555 RBI
Player B: 132 OPS+, 4832 PA, .272/.366/.483, 1132 hits, 191 HR, 694 Runs, 663 RBI
The numbers above represent what each achieved through their 30th birthday. Player A is a little bitter (in terms of OPS+) than he was at the end, but he maintained his overall performance very well. That can also be seen when you take the number of wins he had after his 30th birthday. We are obviously guessing what will happen in Bregman’s case and if he is as productive as Player A from this point on he likely will be in Cooperstown when it is all said and done.
Fielding Numbers
Player A: +19 Rfield, 6.6 DWAR, 4.7 FG, +21 TZ
Player B: +28 Rfield, 6.5 DWAR, 3.3 FG, -6 UZR
We can simply say they are similar defensively and overall above average. We could replace UZR with defensive runs saved and probably have something that will be similar to the numbers that Player A put up. Obviously, as long as Bregman continues to play third he will continue to accrue career value according to defensive WAR and the Fangraphs fielding wins. We can guess that he will end up being more valuable overall defensively, but that is a guess at the end of the day.
Player A: +47 Rfield, 8.0 DWAR, 7.0 FG, +48 TZ
Player B: +28 Rfield, 6.5 DWAR, 3.3 FG, +27 DRS
We simply took the fielding numbers that Player A had accrued through his 30th birthday. Suddenly, we have to look at Bregman differently. Player A was a negative impact fielder after his 30th birthday. If Bregman is neutral then he will end up finishing right around where Player A finished. If he has the same kind of decline then he will be worse.
Playoff Numbers
Player A: 189 PA, .803 OPS, 7 HR, 22 Runs, 27 RBI, 1 SB
Player B: 434 PA, .789 OPS, 19 HR, 63 Runs, 54 RBI, 3 SB
It would seem like Bregman has the advantage here strictly on volume, but we have to consider the differences. Player A did play in the league champioship era, but it was an era when there were only two playoff teams each season. Bregman has played his entire career with a divisional series on top of a league championship series. In 2020 and this past season, he played in a wild card round.
The OPS numbers are fairly similar, so I tend to treat them similarly in terms of their postseason resume. They are players that managed to maintain their regular season performance into the postseason. That’s actually a bonus when you consider that they are facing tougher pitching and higher leverage.
MVP Voting
When we are strictly looking at the MVP voting we are not looking strictly at the quality of the player, but at how they were viewed by the beat writers at the time. Sometimes those players were overvalued and sometimes they are undervalued. To demonstrate this we will also look at their rankings seasons by season according to BWAR. In regular voting, finishes between 11th and 25th receive one point. Finishes in the top ten receive three points. Finishes in the top five receive five points. MVP awards receive ten points.
We do the same with the BWAR rankings except we do not include any seasons where they finished 11th through 25th. The general idea is to see how each player was viewed at the time and to see if any of them are considerably overrated or underrated.
Player A: 10 MVP points, 22 BWAR points = -12 difference
Player B: 12 MVP points, 15 BWAR points = -3 difference
It should be noted that Bregman was the best player in the American League in 2019 according to BWAR. He was the runner up for the MVP award that season. Player A never got that close, but he did have two seasons where he had six or more wins. I’m sure, when you hear the name you will agree that you were surprised by many of the numbers. In general, he is one of the more underappreciated third basemen in the history of the game.
Counting Numbers
Player A: 1868 hits, 316 HR, 977 Runs, 1139 RBI, 1012 walks, 349 2B/3B
Player B: 1132 hits, 191 HR, 694 Runs, 663 RBI, 576 walks, 283 2B/3B
Player A looks like a decent barometer for Bregman as to where he might finish. He almost certainly will have more extra base hits and more runs scored, but the total hits and total home runs seem about right. Player A will likely outpace him in RBI and walks. So, all in all these two are pretty close.
Players Revealed
Alex Bregman is clearly Player B, but the other one might surprise you. It is Ron Cey. Cey suffers from a perception problem. Those 1970s Dodgers teams were always good but they were never great. Furthermore, ask most people who the best player was on those teams and they would probably tell you it was Steve Garvey. They would be wrong. It was Cey. For people my age, they remember Cey is kind of a good player that played for the Chicago Cubs in the 1980s.
We will likely cover Steve Garvey in the first base section of our programming and Davey Lopes in the second base section. Reggie Smith and Jimmy Wynn will come up in the outfield sections. None were as good as Ron Cey in the 1970s. Bregman will likely go down similarly for the Astros. Part of that is that what made them valuable was partially patience at the plate. Walks aren’t a sexy statistic.
With the exception of 2018 and 2019, Bregman has never been great beyond a stretch in any particular season. The overall numbers don’t jump off the page. He’s just a consistently good baseball players. Are consistently good baseball players worth 25-30 million dollars a year? If you were a fan in the 1970s and 1980s would have paid Cey the period equivalent? I might have and I might have voted for Cey for the Hall of Fame. I at least would have to stop and think for a second and the same is true of the Bregman contract.