Comparing Jose Altuve with another famous second baseman
We are starting our journey in the Hall of Fame index and I’m guessing most of you are not familiar with it. In the books, I obviously spent a lot more time going through a statistical tutorial. We don’t have that kind of time. I’m sure many of you will glaze over when we go through the minutia of why this particular number and what it means.
One of the fun things I get to do in the books is what Bill James first dubbed the “Player A and B test”. The general idea behind the index is to allow us to categorize players into similar groups so we can get a better handle of where they stand historically. Simply put, one of our two players will be Jose Altuve. First, I am using him to illustrate how the index works and why it works that way. Secondly, it demonstrates why we have to try to remove emotion as much as possible. Everyone loves Altuve. At least everyone in Houston does.
We begin with a career value number. We simply add BWAR and FWAR together for one simple number. I used to include win shares, but Bill James retired. He is 74 and recently had a stroke, so he deserves the rest and relaxation. It also means no one has picked up the mantle to keep win shares afloat. We have all of the historical data, but current players like Altuve get shafted in the process.
Career Value
Player A: 55.4 BWAR, 56.0 FWAR, 111.4 Career Value
Player B: 51.0 BWAR, 55.5 FWAR, 106.5 Career Value
Jay Jaffe came up with JAWS right around the same time I was developing the index. He is famous. I am not. I guess that makes me the Marconi of baseball statistics. The systems are similar in that they include a career and peak value element. Player A looks like the better player here, but there is absolutely no context. How long did it take each player to get there?
Jaffe uses seven seasons for his peak value. I played around with that, but settled on ten for a couple of different reasons. First, it provides a greater amount of data and usually the more data the better. More importantly, you need ten seasons to be eligible to the Hall of Fame, so if we are measuring fitness for the Hall of Fame that would seem to be a good place to start.
Peak Value
Player A: 45.4 BWAR10, 44.1 FWAR10, 90.2 Peak Value
Player B: 48.1 BWAR10, 53.4 FWAR10, 101.5 Peak Value
Obviously, Player B looks far different here, and therefore, we get a clearer picture of who was better when they were at their very best. Knowing one of these two players is Altuve is kind of unfair. I usually don’t reveal either one until the very end because it is just more fun that way.
If we add career and peak value together, we get the Hall of Fame index. Player B comes out slightly ahead at 208.0 to Player A’s 201.6. Does this mean that Player B is better than Player A? Not necessarily. It just means he is slightly more fit for the Hall of Fame, but we still need to look at the requisite offensive and fielding numbers.
I like to use five offensive numbers as a basis for comparison. I utilize OPS+, Rbaser, OW%, rOBA, and runs created. The first four all compare players with the league average. With the exception of Rbaser (base running) they all measure the same thing, but do it in slightly different ways. I could get into the math involved, but it is better at this stage to simply compare the twp.
Offensive Numbers
Player A: 133 OPS+. 1 Rbaser, .604 OW%, .378 rOBA, 1497 runs created
Player B: 129 OPS+, 15 Rbaser, .635 OW%, .369 rOBA, 1180 runs created
Obviously, Altuve is still active, but I’ll just say the other one is not. That could be an advantage but it likely isn’t. The first four numbers are qualitative ones, and he is likely to decline in quality as he ages. With the exception of runs created, these two are pretty close offensively.
On the fielding end I like to use Rfield, DWAR, FG, and DRS (defensive runs saved). It gives you a cross-section of sabermetric thought on the player’s fielding. They usually end up saying the same thing depending on how they are measured, but occasionally you get some differences. Like with hitting, most of them are based on average but DWAR and FG are cumulative in nature. They are also compared with the median overall player which means some positions have a natural advantage (shortstops and catchers) because they are generally more valuable overall defensively.
Fielding Numbers
Player A: -42 Rfield, -0.1 DWAR, 0.1 FG, -36 DRS
Player B: -70 Rfield, -1.8 DWAR, 0.4 FG, -69 DRS
Neither of these guys is good with the glove, and the other player likely isn’t in the Hall of Fame because of it. There are other reasons, too, that we can get to when the names are revealed. Still, on the offensive and fielding end, these are two very similar players. We also have awards voting to go in addition to postseason performance.
I award points for where a player finishes in the MVP voting. Normally I would simply tell you the tally, but you need to see the breakdowns to see how similar these players are. I also do the same thing with the BWAR top tens. Placing 11th through 25th is worth one point each. Finishing 6th through 10th is three points each. Finishing 2nd through 5th are five points a piece and winning the MVP award is worth ten points.
Awards Voting (AKA Reputation index)
Player A: 2 top 25, 3 top 10s, 0 top five, 1 MVP = 21 points
Player B: 3 top 25, 1 top 10, 2 top fives, 1 MVP = 26 points
Player B gets the nod in terms of reputation, but a funny thing happens when we look at the BWAR position player rankings year by year. Both players finished in the top five twice, which means they were very similar again. That ends up being a total of ten points a piece which means the BBWAA (baseball beatwriters) gave each of them a little more love than what they deserved.
Normally, when looking at postseason data, I include the counting numbers. I am omitting those because that would give everything away. I am distilling out the plate appearances as well. Instead, we will look at just the slash statistics (AVG/OBP/SLG) for these two second basemen.
Postseason numbers
Player A: .276/.340/.500
Player B: .273/.340/.510
Were these two separated at birth? When you hear the two names, the answer is definitely no. One is beloved and the other almost universally hated. One is an extreme contact hitter that hit for higher average. The other is more of a power hitter and run producer. Still, in terms of value they end up being very similar.
Before I reveal the names I should talk about the Player A and B test. We use it to help us remove emotion out of this. We love Jose Altuve and want to crown him as the best Astro ever. Some of this is recency bias that we see in the sports world every day. Some of it is two World Series titles he was integral in helping us win. Doing this allows us to put players’ careers into a context we can use to judge them. We may love one player and hate the other. Usually we care deeply about one and not the other. It essentially keeps us honest. Okay, enough with the filibustering. Below are your answers.
Players Revealed
Player A: Jeff Kent
Player B: Jose Altuve