An Ode to Justin Verlander
I come to praise Caesar and not to bury him. One of the truths in all of sports is that eventually all good things must end. Father Time is undefeated as they say. On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Maybe I can throw a few more clichés into the mix, but I think everyone gets the idea.
The hard part of a situation like this is that all of us have the memories of guys when they were at their best. The Craig Biggio that swung wildly at sliders in the dirt used to be the Biggio that had 50 doubles and 50 steals in a season. The Jeff Bagwell that could barely lift his arms over his shoulder used to be the Bagwell that could do everything on a baseball field. Similarly, the Verlander that won two Cy Youngs as an Astro (and likely could have won a third) is now the Verlander that might not be a part of the playoff rotation.
However, before we put his baseball career in the hearse and drive it to the cemetery we should take a look back at what was and allow him to bask in the glow of a very storied career. While he was not originally an Astro, there is a very good argument for him being the best Astros pitcher ever.
71-28, 794.2 INN, 2.64 ERA, 951 K, 159 ERA+
For the math impaired, that means he won nearly 72 percent of his decisions as an Astro. The road was not always smooth. His missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery. Yet, he won the Cy Young in 2022 on his return. If you were to remove this season you would see his winning percentage spike up to nearly 75 percent. That’s ludicrously good.
Allow me to make a case for Verlander as the best Astro in the history of the franchise. Keep in mind that we are eliminating Roger Clemens because he spent fewer than five seasons in Houston. In this case we are going to utilize my Hall of Fame index. Simply put, I add baseball-reference.com WAR and fangraphs.com WAR for a career value and then each player’s top ten seasons.
Verlander: 81.3 BWAR, 81.7 FWAR, 64.6 BWAR10, 61.9 FWAR10 = 289.5 index
Jeff Bagwell: 79.9 BWAR, 80.2 FWAR, 63.5 BWAR10, 64.1 FWAR10 = 287.7 Index
I normally don’t like to compare players from different positions, but I can make an exception in this case. As we saw in a previous piece, Jose Altuve might get there someday but he’s not there now. No one that has put on an Astros uniform for a reasonable length of time has done it better than Verlander. Period.
While I might not compare him to players like Bagwell we can compare him to the best active pitchers currently in the game. There are usually two other names associated with Verlander that could be reasonably considered for best active pitcher. Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw are those guys. Ignoring the index we can look at the numbers that people normally look like. We will look at wins, winning percentage, but other numbers like ERA+ and some other fancy numbers I’ll explain after we see them.
Verlander- 260 wins, .639 PCT, 130 ERA+, .596 waaWL, 56 BWAR points
Kershaw- 212 wins, .693 PCT, 156 ERA+. .626 waaWL, 56 BWAR points
Scherzer- 216 wins, .659 PCT, 133 ERA+, .607 waaWL, 64 BWAR points
The first three numbers are pretty self-explanatory. The waaWL is an estimate of what a pitcher’s winning percentage would be with average defense and average run support. Lee Sinins has an online encyclopedia that converts this into neutral wins and losses. He has not made this available for Apple, so I have not seen it in a number of years. One could easily do this by hand.
The BWAR points are similar to the MVP BWAR points where we look at the number of times the pitcher finished in the top ten amongst pitchers in BWAR. We see Scherzer with an advantage there primarily because he was healthier throughout his prime. However, the conversation likely gets divided between Verlander and Kershaw.
Verlander was generally more durable than Kershaw and more prolific. Yet, on a per season or per start basis there can be no denying that Kershaw was considerably better than the other two. Usually, when we get a tie we move to the playoffs and this is where we see a significant difference.
Verlander: 17-12, 226.0 INN, 3.58 ERA, 244 K
Kershaw: 13-13, 194.1 INN, 4.49 ERA, 213 K
Verlander holds a number of postseason records including postseason strikeouts. Both of these pitchers could theoretically add to these numbers, but we are guessing both are well on the back nine of their careers. So, based on these numbers and the fact that both players have points in their favor on the other numbers, I’d pick Verlander as the best active pitcher currently in the game.
Naturally, this brings us back to the cold, hard reality of the situation. There comes a time when teams have to choose between allowing players to depart the game as they see fit and doing what is best for the current team. We are at that crossroads now. The Astros clearly have five capable playoff starters outside of Verlander. You could make a definite argument that skipping him would greatly improve your chances. You would have never said as recently as 2023. Age and injuries can catch up with you overnight.
Given all of that, I will cherish my Verlander jersey in my closet and wear it proudly during the playoffs. He is the best Astro to this date and he deserves his due regardless of what he has or hasn’t done this season. I come to praise Verlander and not to bury him. Yet, someone else might have to have a difficult conversation before October.