Have things changed significantly?
Author’s Note: I have seen a few comments concerning why such articles are labeled as HOF Index even when they don’t involve a discussion of the Hall of Fame. Simply put, the index is about a way of systematically looking at questions that allows us to arrive at a more comprehensive answer. I am not arguing Bregman’s Hall of Fame credentials. He is not eligible for the index yet anyway.
We looked at this contract negotiation earlier in the season. With the season nearly done, we have more evidence and a new contract to compare Bregman to. As per usual, I begin with the simple and move to the complex. So, we will look at the basic numbers for the current roster of all-star type third basemen. It should be noted that all of these players have a track record of at least several seasons given the numbers we will be looking at later.
Bregman has not been the most valuable third basemen in the game for some time as we will see when we look at the BWAR rankings, but he has been among the most consistent. Obviously, these WAR breakdowns will create some significant area for debate, but we should probably take a look before we dive too quickly into those debates
Before we start comparing contracts we should go back and compare WAR scores going back to 2018. Some players (notably Austin Riley) were not active then, so we will include an average score in addition to the total. This hopefully will give us some players that might be comparable to Bregman.
If I’m Scott Boras, I am leaning really damn heavy on this chart right here. If we forget about the totals and just focus on the per season averages, we notice the top four guys all average between 5.0 and 5.5 WAR per season. As Bregman’s agent I love these numbers. That makes Bregman arguably one of the best third basemen in the game in the past seven seasons. Therefore, you could argue he deserves the most money since he would be the last guy to get a deal.
I’m not speaking for the Astros, but I’m assuming that the last two guys are a lot more of the speed they are talking about in terms of average value. If we ignore 2018 and 2019 then we notice that Bregman has actually been pretty consistent in his career. This would include 2017 before he had those big seasons. He averaged 3.8 wins per season between 2021 and 2024. That goes up to almost 3.9 when we include 2017. If I am Astros management, I am arguing that Bregman is a four win player.
To finish off our comparison we will look at the contract lengths, total financial value, average annual value, and the age that the player signed. From there we can apply a five percent per year inflation addition to account for the natural increase in contracts and the cost of waiting on making a deal.
Matt Chapman: 6 years, 151 million, 25.17 AAV, 32 years old, 2024
Jose Ramirez: 7 years, 141 million, 20.14 AAV, 29 years old, 2022
Austin Riley: 10 years, 212 million, 21.20 AAV, 25 years old, 2023
Manny Machado: 11 years, 350 million, 31.83 AAV, 30 years old, 2023
Rafael Devers: 10 years, 313 million, 31.35 AAV, 26 years old, 2023
Nolan Arenado: 8 years, 260 million, 32.50 AAV, 27 years old, 2019
You’ll notice I added Arenado to the contract comps. He has not been one of the best third basemen in the league for the past couple of seasons, but his contract is a pretty good comp. So, to make this easy, I am going to add the contract length to the age of the player to get an end date. In that case we might be able to arrive at a reasonable comp for Bregman given his current age.
Matt Chapman: Ending Age: 38, Inflation adjusted: 26.43 million
Jose Ramirez: Ending Age: 36, Inflation adjusted: 23.16 million
Austin Riley: Ending Age: 35, Inflation adjusted: 23.32 million
Manny Machado: Ending Age: 41, Inflation adjusted: 35.01 million
Rafael Devers: Ending Age: 36, Inflation adjusted: 34.49 million
Nolan Arenado: Ending Age: 35, Inflation adjusted: 42.25 million
Clearly, Arenado and Machado got over in their negotiations. So, I’m going to come up with two numbers. There is the Scott Boras agent friendly rate that includes all of the players and the numerical average and then a contract that takes Arenado and Machado out of the conversation. It will be interesting to see how close they would actually be.
Agent Friendly Averages: 37 ending age, 30.78 average adjusted annual value
Sane Averages: 36 ending age, 26.85 average adjusted annual value
We should keep these numbers in mind because that would give us an idea of who will win the negotations. Bregman will turn 31 next season, so we can look at the potential contract from the Boras perspective and from the Astros perspective. Naturally, the question for Bregman and his camp is whether anyone will give him the Boras rate on the open market. We have seen players turn down decent offers from their teams and forced to take less when no one gives them the preferred rate.
Agent Friendly Contract: 7 years, 215 million
Team Friendly Contract: 6 years, 161 million
From here, there are any number of permutations that the Astros and Boras could go. If I were the Astros I would likely shorten that contract offer and boost the average annual value. I might concede the Boras AAV and simply go four seasons. Spoctrac.com has the contract set at 4 years and 120 million. Using the multiplier above it would actually come in at 4 years and 123 million. If you went five seasons you could split the difference between the 30.78 and 26.85 which would come out at 28.81 million. That would be a five year contract of 144 million.
From an Astros perspective, the question is how long he will continue to be a three to four win player. If you think he can last until his mid-thirties then such a contract makes a lot of sense. If you see him petering out then you would want to go the three or four year contract route.