How do we treat the rest of the season
There are any number of ways to treat this season and we will likely get into all of them. The best way I can describe any baseball season is the desire to play with a purpose. In most Astro seasons (certainly since 2015) the purpose is to win games and win a championship. Every team should be on that path. Yet, as we sit here in June we have to face the reality that this likely won’t happen this season.
We can wax poetic about 2005 and coming from 15-30 to win the pennant. There are two undeniable facts about that season. First, that almost never happens. You’d have to go back to the 1914 Boston Braves before finding a similar team with a similar result. Secondly, there are structural issues that make this team far different from that 2005 squad.
So, the purpose changes. You absolutely don’t just play out the string. You continue to try to win baseball games because that is what teams should do. However, you do so with an eye for the future. You both maximize your roster now while answering questions about 2025. Who from this roster is in position to help this team in 2025?
You will note that I wrote a piece about what a Yainer Diaz extension might look like. I should add a few words on that. First, no extension would take place in the season anyway. The fundamental points from that article remain unchanged. Any extension would be based on what Diaz is likely to be and the way the catcher position will evolve towards the end of the decade. A part of that is the importance of pitch framing.
We have seen numerous examples of why the sport will move to an automatic strike zone. It’s coming. The opener in the White Sox series could be exhibit one. The home plate umpire didn’t decide the outcome of the game, but you could clearly point to Framber Valdez being squeezed and the Astros’ hitters being hampered (particularly Jose Altuve) as prime examples of why the sport will move in that direction. So, the extension talk was based on that reality. We obviously aren’t there now.
Below we will look at the current numbers for the Astros catchers. We will boil it down to OPS, wRC+, defensive runs saved, and WAR according to Fangraphs. 25 catchers in the American League have 100 or more plate appearances through June 19th. I will include each catcher’s ranking in each statistic.
Yainer Diaz: .686 OPS (11th), 93 wRC+ (14th), -5 DRS (22nd), 0.5 FWAR (17th)
Victor Caratini: .704 OPS (10th), 97 wRC+ (11th), +2 DRS (13th), 0,5 FWAR (17th)
It would appear that Caratini is the better catcher across the board. So, if your goal is to win more games then you would play the better catcher. However, a part of this season has to be about making decisions for the future. As we noted in the Diaz article, he is essentially neutral as a defender outside of the pitch framing. So, a lot of analysis and scrutiny needs to be placed into how these numbers shake out.
The comments on that particular article were also telling. Diaz is sitting at the Rubicon as a player. If he develops even a modicum of plate discipline he will essentially cross that threshold and become a good regular catcher. If he doesn’t then he will be a marginal player that might be a career backup.
So, if we dive a little deeper into those numbers we can see what we are essentially looking at. So, I will take a look at their rate statistics in terms of contact, patience, chase rates, and other factors that might tell a better story of the type of thing we are looking at.
Diaz: .018 isolated patience, 14.8 K%, 3.7 BB%, 40.6% chase, 79.8% contact
Caratini: .041 isolated patience, 114.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 29.0% chase, 83.5% contact
Neither is ideal. Both players are below average in walk rates and isolated patience. However, both are good in strikeout rates and contact rates. The biggest difference comes in the chase rates. The league average tends to hover around 30 percent depending on the season. Diaz has one of the worst chase rates in the league.
I don’t know how much progress can be made in this department. Guys have been hitting since they were kids. I’m not sure how you completely change someone’s hitting style at the big league level. However, this is a point of emphasis that can used behind the scenes by the decision scientists to evaluate the long-term prospects of the player. I think the power will come back eventually, but these numbers probably say more about the long-term future than anything else.
In one of my other pieces, I mentioned the platoon advantage and this could be an opportunity for the Astros to mix and match in order to maximize their lineups on a daily basis. Below are each players numbers from the right and left hand side of the plate. See if you notice anything.
Diaz R 174 PA, .249/.270/.400, 5 HR, 17 Runs, 24 RBI
Diaz L: 70 PA, .273/.314/.409, 2 HR, 7 Runs, 9 RBI
Caratini R: 93 PA, .226/.280/.429, 4 HR, 12 Runs, 14 RBI
Caratini L: 21 PA, .300/.286/.400, 0 HR, 1 Run, 3 RBI
At first blush it would seem to be a problem. Both players look like they are good against lefties, so how do you solve this problem? This is where we have to think creatively. Jon Singleton is a black hole against lefties. You need someone to put at first base in those situations. Both Caratini and Diaz have played a little bit of first base in their careers. The rest of the season is a great opportunity to test it out to see if either is an option there.
This is when we start to consider the situation. What is the worst that can happen? The worst that can happen is that one or both show you they can’t handle the position. Then, you have an answer. The upside is that you might win an extra game here and there based on having better hitters up and down the lineup. It also gives you the ability to get both of them more plate appearances to see how each handles a bigger workload at the plate.