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What do the totals tell us?
Editor’s note: This was originally written after the completion of the Mariners series. The statistics cited here have changed slightly since then.
Admittedly, I am like a bad shopping cart that pulls to the right no matter which way it’s facing. If you ask me what to get at the deadline or in free agency I will almost always say offense. I recognize the need for more pitching and the importance of pitching, but good position players also impact run prevention through fielding. They impact your team every day.
A part of that bias is in direct response to listening to a whole bevy of Astros general managers over the years prattle on about the need for more pitching. Throughout most of Astros history, their pitchers have outranked their hitters. A large part of that was the Astrodome for the team’s first 20 or so years (of my fandom) but it has been true of most of their tenure throughout their time in Minute Maid Park as well.
I could go through the rankings year by year to prove my point, but I think everyone gets my drift. This season that has not been the case. The Astros are 9th in runs scored with 468 runs after the Mariners series. They are 11th in runs allowed with 416 runs allowed. They were running nearly last in the big leagues in runs allowed after April. They were middle of the pack in terms of runs scored. One could easily argue that even with all of the injuries and shortages in the rotation, the team’s pitching is currently outpacing the offense.
Just as a reminder, total runs combines runs created, fielding runs, base running runs, and a positional adjustment for total runs. Obviously, each player has played a varying number of games but we can look at the positions and pretty clearly determine which positions are experiencing the most difficulty. Secondarily, we can do what Dusty Baker struggled to do and that is adapt to current performance and put the best nine on the field more consistently.
C Yainer Diaz: 40 runs created, -2 Rfield, -3 Rbaser, 3 Rpos = 38 total runs
C Victor Caratini: 13 runs created, 1 Rfield, -2 Rbaser, 2 Rpos = 14 total runs
I know Cesar Salazar has started some games with Caratini being out, but Diaz has also spent considerable time at DH, so those two kind of cancel each other out. 52 total runs out of the position is actually pretty damn good when you compare it with the other positions on the team.
1B Jon Singleton: 29 runs created, -3 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, -4 Rpos = 22 total runs
1B Jose Abreu: 3 runs created, -1 Rfield, -1 Rbaser, -2 Rpos = -1 total runs
Holy negative runs Batman! I have never seen a player with negative total runs before. Obviously, he is no longer a problem, but seeing the two players together kind of paints a picture doesn’t it? There have been a few Mauricio Dubon starts and Dubon will be here as a utility player. 21 total runs is abysmal as we will see.
2B Jose Altuve: 64 runs created, -2 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, 3 Rpos = 65 total runs
July will be coming to a close soon. At this pace, he will be close to 70 total runs when the month comes to an end. It would be reasonable to project him to get to close to 100 total runs by the end of the season. Given the current offensive numbers around the league, that 100 total is pretty damn good.
3B Alex Bregman: 49 runs created, -3 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, 3 Rpos = 49 total runs
The Bregman legacy is a pretty complicated one. I can imagine that if he hits like he did in June and July for the rest of the season he will wind up hitting around .270 or .275. Add a healthy walk rate to that and you have a good offensive player. Is that a 30 million dollar player? That’s debatable.
SS Jeremy Pena: 45 runs created, 0 Rfield, 2 Rbaser, 6 Rpos = 53 total runs
What the Astros do with Pena in the future might be the biggest decision of the offseason. He is not in the upper echelon of shortstops, but he is in a group right under that. As it stands, he fits in well with the lineup in general.
Utility Mauricio Dubon: 28 runs created, 2 Rfield, -1 Rbaser, -1 Rpos = 28 total runs
I’ve always thought that utlity players are misunderstood. The Rpos for example is based on a number of games in left field and first base. He even had a start or two in right field. Those positions are less challenging in general but more challenging when they aren’t your regular position. He has played everywhere but catcher and done so with decent fielding production.
LF Chas McCormick: 14 runs created, 0 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, -2 Rpos = 12 total runs
LF Joey Loperfido: 12 runs created, 1 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, -1 Rpos = 12 total runs
LF Trey Cabbage: 7 runs created, 2 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, -1 Rpos = 8 total runs
The three have combined for 362 plate appearances. Obviously they have each played a little of right field, but the combined plate appearances in a little more than 90 games are roughly total what an everyday left fielder would produce. So, 32 total runs is a decent estimate for the position. Last year, McCormick was outperforming every outfielder but Kyle Tucker and couldn’t get on the field. Now, he is producing less than the other two and getting more playing time. If they don’t address left field in a trade they need to redistribute the playing time to be more in line with who is actually producing.
CF Jake Meyers: 35 runs created, 3 Rfield, 1 Rbaser, 2 Rpos = 41 total runs
Every team needs a Jake Meyers to be successful. He won’t go to any all-star games playing this way, but he is consistently above replacement level and a nice player to have in the lineup everyday. The big key is the ability to add some good fielding and base running to the equation.
RF Kyle Tucker: 53 runs created, 7 Rfield, 1 Rbaser, -2 Rpos = 59 total runs
Tucker is the most valuable position player on the team. Period. Obviously, he was producing more offensively when he went down, but he is also the only true plus defender on the squad. Add in above average base running and you get a total player. Getting him back in the lineup will be the best trade this team can make.
DH Yordan Alvarez: 75 runs created, -3 Rfield, 0 Rbaser, -7 Rpos = 65 total runs
Alvarez is easily the best hitter the team has that’s healthy. He seems to run in spurts and he happens to be on a positive spurt right now. If the team can keep him out of left field then they can maximize his value. It will also more likely keep him healthy.
Overall Thoughts
These things can likely be seen better if we simply look at the positions side by with the totals. We will keep Dubon out of the conversation for now and just consider him as a tenth man of sorts. That might show us not only which positions to target but hopefully how the lineup card should be prioritized.
Catcher: 52 total runs
First Base: 21 total runs
Second Base: 65 total runs
Third Base: 49 total runs
Shortstop: 53 total runs
Left Field: 32 total runs
Centerfield: 41 total runs
Right Field: 59 total runs
Designated Hitter: 65 total runs
Clearly we know what positions need help. They can mitigate left field by prioritizing Joey Loperfido. I might not hit him and Trey Cabbage back to back in the lineup, but those two are clearly playing better than Chas McCormick, so they should prioritize putting both in the lineup until Tucker returns.