How can we adapt those lessons for 2024?
I have talked in this space about evidence based decision making and a large part of that is relying on the work and ideas of other smart people. Vince Gennaro wrote Diamond Dollars some years ago, but the concepts inside are as timely as they have ever been. In particular, we will look at two such concepts as it pertains to first base specifically and the team in general as it approaches the trade deadline.
The Platoon Advantage
One of the things that Gennaro pointed out was something he called the platoon advantage. It should be noted that he was speaking primarily about free agency. The idea was that you could spend upwards of 20 million annually for one player that could hit both lefties and righties equally well (say Yordan Alvarez). You could also sign two players that can hit one or the other and platoon them,
The advantage you get from platooning is that both players would cost you far less than the 20 million you would spend on the one. The upshot is that their combined performance would approximate that of the 20 million player for a fraction of the cost. The Astros have that potential at first base.
Jon Singleton vs. Righties: .227/.331/.345, 4 HR, 17 Runs. 12 RBI, 31/19 SO/BB
Jon Singleton vs. Lefties: .184/.262/.290, 1 HR, 3 Runs, 2 RBI, 16/4 SO/BB
Granted. the sample size is small, but we see two very different players here. No one is going to be planning a bust in Cooperstown for either Singleton, but the one facing righties is survivable. The one against lefties is almost as bad as Jose Abreu. Cooper Hummell might seem like a longshot to do anything, but we have to turn this question on its head. Would he likely produce more than a .552 OPS against lefties?
Let’s say that he was able to produce a .700 OPS if only facing lefties. He certainly has hit at every level of the minor leagues. Joey Loperfido and Trey Cabbage might seem like better options at first blush, but they are also left-handed. Usually that isn’t a recipe for success but some players demonstrate reverse splits. Either way, Singleton has shown that he shouldn’t be playing against lefties.
The Sweet Spot
Gennaro spent a great deal of time looking at the economics of free agency. His view was pretty simple. It only makes sense to spend a great deal of money if you are close to competing for the playoffs. Very few players are worth even five wins over replacement. You occasionally get guys that are worth six or seven wins, but those guys are MVP candidates and they don’t come cheap. Here is the AL West Standings as of June 17th.
Seattle Mariners: 43-31…. — Games Back
Texas Rangers: 33-38 …. 8.5 Games Back
Houston Astros: 33-39…. 9.0 Games Back
There is some good news and bad news here. The good news is that we are virtually tied with the Rangers for second place. So, you could make a move and get ahead of them fairly easily. Even without a move you could get ahead of them without the weight of Abreu holding you down and when you get reinforcements like Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia.
The Astros are also +4 in run differential. In other words, they should be 36-36 if we believe Pythagoras. The Mariners are +19 which comes with a 39-35 expected record. So, they are four wins better than their expected record while the Astros are three games worse. That makes up nearly all of the nine game deficit.
Yet, that doesn’t erase the nine games from the standings. Plus, they have only six head to head games remaining. There are no nine win players in the game today and that’s over a full season. There are zero players in the history of the game that can produce nine wins in 90 games.
This isn’t theoretical. Jon Singleton is a replacement level player. So, virtually any first baseman available would be an improvement quite literally. However, there have been three names mentioned as possibilities on the trade market. Below are their basic numbers along with their WAR scores according to Fangraphs. I’ll include Jon Singleton for reference.
Jon Singleton: .217/.315/.331, 5 HR, 20 Runs, 14 RBI, -0.4 FWAR
Paul Goldschmidt: .227/.297/.349. 8 HR. 33 Runs, 27 RBI, 0.0 FWAR
Josh Bell: .240/.307/.371, 7 HR, 27 Runs, 31 RBI, -0.2 FWAR
Peter Alonso: .232/.310/.461. 15 HR, 39 Runs, 37 RBI, 0.9 FWAR
Wow, that’s a bit underwhelming isn’t it? The good news is that you are acquiring the player you think they will be from here on out and not the player they have been. Everyone starts at zero once they come. So, the question is which player will give you the best bang for your buck once they come to Houston?
Alonso has averaged a little over three wins per season in the big leagues. So, it seems pretty clear that he could be worth two wins in between now and the end of the season. Bell has had only one season significantly above two wins. So, it seems more likely that he would be worth a win to a win and a half between now and end of the season.
Goldschmidt has traditionally been a four to five win player. So, he could explode for maybe three additional wins between now and then end of the season. So, the best you can hope for is to get within six games without any other changes or improvements Could LMJ and Garcia be worth six games? I guess you could talk yourself into it. If you couple the improvement there with positive regression in one run games you could talk yourself into getting back in the race.
Combining the two
This is quite simple. There is very little evidence to suggest that acquiring an available first baseman will get your where you want to go. Would any of those three be better than Jon Singleton? They all would in fact and Alonso might be considerably better as things stand. As exciting as it would be to envision him hitting fifth behind Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker, the reality is that he can’t pitch.
What you can do immediately is sit Singleton against lefties. It might not seem like much, but it might turn him into a player that’s a tad better than replacement level. If Hummell is also slightly better than replacement level then you might fetch a game over where you are now.
So, do you trade a prime prospect or two in order to gain a game or two in the standings? If your goal is finish in front of the Rangers then you can go ahead and do that. The Astros are seven games back in the wild card. One major move isn’t going to get you there. As unpleasant as it all it, it might be time to consider being sellers rather than buyers. Of course, that’s only what evidence based decision making would tell us.