How does Thursday’s news impact the pennant race?
Two bits of news came down the pike on Thursday afternoon and while neither were directly Astros related, everything in the division has immediate and long-term impacts for the team. Plus, I’ve noticed that some of my articles have tended on the critical. Sometimes it pays to look at what other organizations are doing to put whatever criticisms we may have of the hometown nine in perspective.
Mariners Fire Scott Servais
I should point a few things out here before I get too far into the weeds of what this means for the Astros. It is very difficult to parse out what exactly a manager is responsible for and what the general manager and ownership are responsible for. This is particularly true for a fan looking at the situation from afar. Certainly, Astros fans could watch Dusty Baker and Joe Espada make decisions on a daily basis and render a decision. It is harder for us to look at the Mariners and make the same determination.
Mariners: 64-64, +14 Run differential, 66-62 expected record
This is actually a fairly recent development. Throughout much of the season the Mariners were actually outperforming their expected record. Their recent losing streak has obviously taken that for a turn for the worse. Of course, we can easily debate whether a team’s performance in comparison with their expected record is a reflection on the manager. Maybe a breakdown of how they have done in specific situations could help us out.
One Run games: 21-18
Extra Inning: 7-7
Blowout games: 17-13
What we find is that blowout games are actually closer to the overall quality of a team than the one run games. The Mariners have been very good in one runs games during Servais’ tenure. I’m not sure if that means anything, but I’m sure that will come up when he is filling out his resume for his next job. The general consensus is that their pitching has been great while their offense has been terrible.
Runs Allowed: 489 (1st)
Runs Scored: 503 (27th)
The numbers are undeniable, but this brings us to the next question. Who is ultimately responsible? Professional sports has a way of going through the motions on these things. First, they fired the hitting coaches. The manager is always the next person on the list, but who is putting this roster together? Let’s look at how they break down based on the different numbers
AVG: .216 (30th)
OBP: .301 (26th)
SLG: .365 (29th)
OPS: .666 (28th)
If these numbers by themselves are supposed to be a predictor of runs scored then I’d say the Mariners are about where they should be in terms of offensive production. Now, are certain players underachieving? There has been no doubt on that. Julio Rodriguez for one has had a down year. Yet, a lot of the disappointment has come from players Jerry Dipoto brought in this season. In particular, Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco have been disappointing for most of the season. Is that Servais’ fault?
How does this impact the Astros?
I’m not sure it does. Dan Wilson takes over and he wasn’t on the coaching staff and currently works as a color commentator on television. Does this sound familiar at all? Larry Dierker ended up being a breath of fresh air when he was hired in 1997. Of course, the Astros had an entire offseason to surround him with experienced coaches to help him learn on the job,
Wilson has to deal with what is there and there won’t be any major changes to the roster. Maybe some underachieving players begin to play better. A baseball season is a season of streaks and a winning streak is always possible. However, these teams have now played more than 120 games. It is much more likely that they are who they are at this point.
Angels give Perry Minasian Two Year Extension
I have been a firm believer that some contracts should come with laugh tracks. That certainly will be true when anyone mentions the contracts for Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero, or Lance McCullers Jr. Every team has those. Minasian wasn’t in charge when the Angels signed Anthony Rendon for instance. He also wasn’t in charge when the Angels signed Mike Trout to his long-term extension.
That being said, you want tangible signs of progress when you give front office guys or coaches extensions. That means either getting to the playoffs and making a run or at least making sizable gains from season to season in success. Here are the Angels records from 2021 to the present.
2021: 77-85
2022: 73-89
2023: 73-89
2024: 54-73
Arte Moreno said that Minasian is laying a foundation for success. Really? So, let’s say that the Angels finish .500 from here on out. That would give them a 72-90 record. That’s assuming they play a better brand of baseball than what they have been playing for the whole season. So, how exactly is he setting a foundation? I think we all get the fact that he has had to overcome some albatross contracts and still has some on the books, but it sure looks like they are moving backwards to me.
How does this impact the Astros?
Simply put, it makes our lives a little bit easier. When one of your four competitors is being run by an idiot then you have that much better chance of getting to the playoffs. When you add in another team (the Athletics) that clearly are in no position to try to win then the division becomes a three team race at the outset.
Jeff Luhnow became the Astros general manager prior to the 2012 season. They were in the playoffs by his fourth season and had shown significant progress by his third. This is in spite of the fact that they began with less than the Angels currently have. I guess Moreno should be applauded for his patience, but I’m not certain it’s that smart.