What is the difference between these Astros and past Astros?
Some pundits and general managers love to just tinker without looking underneath the hood. With the trade deadline coming next week and teams in the division already making moves, it is high time to take a look at the offensive side of the ball to see exactly what is going right and what is going wrong.
Sometimes the fix is right in front of you. When you can fix something without making a move you are much better off. Still, is the Astros offense broken? I guess that sort of depends on your definition. I begin with some very general statistics because they can be instructive on their own. Are we perceiving the Astros offense in the right way? When we think of the Astros offense what immediately comes to mind? (note: all statistics through the Oakland series)
Runs Scored; 478 (10th)
AVG: .261 (2nd)
OBP: .320 (10th)
SLG: .418 (8th)
OPS: .738 (8th)
On base percentage is the only individual number that matches the rank in runs scored. If OPS is supposed to be a better predictor of run production then this team should rank 8th in overall runs scored. If ten runs equals one win then we are only talking about maybe a win or two in total production, but when you have a one game lead over second and three game lead over third each game makes a big difference.
Ask any Astros fan why they are being inefficient (if we agree they are) and they would tell you they just don’t get runners in when they need to. Certainly no metric is perfect, but our memories are probably less so. A large part of that is that we often dwell on failure, but we also are only getting 1/30th of the picture. If we watched other teams consistently, we would probably see many of the same issues. Be that as it may, a lack of clutch performance would bare itself out in situational numbers. So, let’s break down those OPS numbers by situations.
Bases Empty: .712 OPS
Runners On: .772 OPS
RISP: .765 OPS
That can’t be right. How is this team better with runners on when we see them fail so often? A large part of that is the bully ball I referenced an article on Pythagoras. When you pile on eight, ten, or even more runs on an opponent you tend to pad your stats in those so-called clutch situations. Fortunately, baseball-reference has us covered there.
Low Leverage: .260/.322/.427/.749
Medium Leverage: .261/.320/.415/..735
High Leverage: .268/.318/.401/.719
So, part of the problem is that our perceptions are generally correct. In closer games this team doesn’t seem to hit as well. While this might be alarming, it is also a look at one team in the MLB universe. As much as I would love to do a deep dive into all 30 teams, let’s compare the Astros in some key statistical areas with the other Astros teams during this streak.
Most fans are familiar with isolated power. It is the difference between batting average and slugging percentage. I also like to use what I would call “isolated patience”. It is the number between batting average and on base percentage. When you take those two together you get the bulk of what Bill James called “secondary average.” His formula includes a base running element, so the totals won’t exactly line up, but we will call ours raw secondary to differentiate it from the more comprehensive Bill James statistic.
2017: .064 isopat, .196 isopow, .260 raw secondary
2018: .074 isopat, .170 isopow, .244 raw secondary
2019: .078 isopat, .221 isopow, ..299 raw secondary
2021: .072 isopat, .177 isopow, .249 raw secondary
2022: .071 isopat, .176 isopow, .247 raw secondary
2023: .072 isopat, .178 isopow, .250 raw secondary
2024: .059 isopat, .157 isopow, .216 raw secondary
Eureka! I think we found something. It shouldn’t be any surprise that the Astros’ best two offensive seasons came in 2017 and 2019. Both teams also had the fewest strikeouts in the league. The current Astros aren’t that far behind comparatively. They sit in third place for fewest strikeouts and have never finished lower than third in any season since 2017 (excluding 2020 of course).
Walks on the other hand have been a little more enigmatic. They ranked as low as 20th in 2017 when they led the league in runs scored. However, they also put up more power numbers that season as well. In every other seasons they ranked 11th or better in walks. This season they are tied for 27th in walks.
So, if we prioritize walks then we can take a look at the individual hitters in the Astros lineup and perhaps optimize it for production with runners on base, contact, grounding into double plays, and of course walk rates. The top seven hitters have been pretty consistent lately, but we will throw in Kyle Tucker. Unfortunately, reports are that he might not be back until September.
Jose Altuve: 17.4 K%, 5.8 BB%, 6 GIDP, .813 OPS RISP
Alex Bregman: 13.5 K%, 7.4 BB%, 9 GIDP, .733 OPS RISP
Yordan Alvarez: 15.8 K%, 10.4 BB%, 9 GIDP, .922 OPS RISP
Kyle Tucker: 15.7 K%, 17.6 BB%, 5 GIDP, 1.040 OPS RISP
Yainer Diaz: 15.0 K%, 4.1 BB%, 14 GIDP, .747 OPS RISP
Jeremy Pena: 16.3 K%, 4.4 BB%, 10 GIDP, .708 OPS RISP
Jon Singleton: 26.5 K%, 11.8 BB%, 2 GIDP, .807 OPS RISP
Jake Meyers: 22.4 K%, 6.7 BB%, 7 GIDP, .875 OPS RISP
Mauricio Dubon: 11.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 3 GIDP, .742 OPS RISP
Chas McCormick: 29.4 K%, 7.8 BB%, 2 GIDP, .631 OPS RISP
Joey Loperfido: 34.2 K%, 5.4 BB%, 1 GIDP, .864 OPS RISP
Trey Cabbage: 34.2 K%, 2.5 BB%, 1 GIDP, .826 OPS RISP
Victor Caratini: 13.5 K%, 4.2 BB%, 3 GIDP, .596 OPS RISP
Currently, Aledyms Diaz is the last guy on the roster, but he has only 33 plate appearances. it is fairly easy to see what is going on here. When you take Tucker out of the lineup and when you sit Singleton versus lefties you have only one guy in the order that will reliably draw walks. It’s hard to solve THAT problem without making a move, but you can maximize your lineup some.
I think the top three guys are pretty entrenched and stable, but the question is what you do behind Yordan. If your goal is maximize run scoring opportunities then you want someone that is going to make contact, avoid grounding in double plays, and lift their game with me on base. Based only on this year’s numbers that is not Yainer Diaz or Jeremy Pena. Until we get to Caratini and McCormick it is just about anyone else minus their higher strikeout rates.
if you aren’t going to acquire more offense then the next best thing is to maximize the production you do have. That means plays Loperfido and Cabbage more and playing McCormick less. It also means moving up guys like Meyers and Singleton and moving guys like Diaz and Pena down. Lineup construction is never a panacea. It won’t completely remove the lack of patience issues we are seeing up and down the lineup, but it might help you eek out a win here and there down the stretch.