What is really standing in the way of winning
My earliest baseball memories were of watching the Astros in the early 1980s. I think Al Rosen was the general manager back then. I’ve gone through Bill Wood, Bob Watson, Gerry Hunsicker, Tim Purpura, Ed Wade, Jeff Luhnow, James Click, and finally Dana Brown. I might have left an early general manager out, but I think you get the idea of how far back I go.
I’ve learned two important things over the years. First, all of those general managers said they needed more pitching and that was when their clubs’ pitching outpaced their hitting in nearly every season. There is only one notable season where it did not and that was 2017. I wonder if there was anything special about that season. The second thing I know is that analysis in the wake of a playoff defeat is usually never sound. There is just too much raw emotion tied to it.
So, I thought what I would do is do a longitudinal study of sorts to look at the Astros in 2024 and the Astros in the playoffs from 2017 to 2024. If there is anything I detest it is small sample sizes. Anything can happen in two games and one lousy outing literally spoils the whole season. So, I’m expanding my search beyond 2024 and just October of 2024.
I decided to take a look at our regular season losses (all 73 of them). In how many of those losses did we score three or fewer runs? I think most people would agree you will lose most games where you score only three runs. In how many of those games did we give up six or more runs? Most people would agree that you lose most of those games as well.
Three runs or less: 55 of 73 losses
Six runs or more: 32 of 73 losses
This information by itself is pretty damning. It tells me that more often than not the Astros lose they lose because they don’t score runs. That 55 accounts for over 75 percent of their losses. The 32 accounts for almost 44 percent of their losses. But wait, there’s more. What about the games where both of those happen in the same game?
Three runs or less AND six runs or more: 17
This obviously has one obvious implication and one subtle implication. This means there were only 15 games where the offense clearly showed up and the pitching staff did not. That’s a little over 20 percent of the losses or less than ten percent of all of the games. I’d say that is pretty damn good pitching.
The more subtle answer is in the general narrative of those games. How many times did you have a fairly close game that Joe Espada simply gave up on because the Astros offense wasn’t doing anything? So, a couple of middle to late relievers end up giving up runs late and make it look like a blowout.
So, in short the Astros lose because they don’t score enough runs. Maybe that is true of most teams, but I think at least the facts are clear in my they are losing games. it is the offense stupid. So, let’s look at the Astros position by position with OPS+ and walk rates.
If we go back through the years in the playoffs we see the same kind of thing. The Astros have been 58-39 in the playoffs since 2017. We have to remember how successful they have been overall. In 30 of their 39 losses they have scored three or fewer runs. Sure, we can say offense is usually down in the playoffs because of improved pitching. Yet, it is interesting that the team has seen the same basic profile of failure through the years that they saw in the 2024 regular season. It’s almost predictable. Let’s take a look at the 2024 Astros position by position.
Catcher: 105 OPS+, 35 walks
First Base: 77 OPS+, 53 walks
Second Base: 110 OPS+, 48 walks
Third Base: 103 OPS+, 50 walks
Shortstop: 90 OPS+, 28 walks
Left Field: 99 OPS+, 48 walks
Center Field: 72 OPS+, 41 walks
Right Field: 114 OPS+, 71 walks
Designated Hitter: 125 OPS+, 68 walks
I had a friend at work that said he wanted a first baseman that hits .300 with at least 30 home runs and drives in 100 runs. Yup, and I want a million dollars and a date with Beyonce. The OPS+ marks are a lot more realistic. What you want is to have nine hitters around the league average or higher. So, the first place you look is any position with an OPS+ much lower than 90. That’s center field and first base. With Alex Bregman likely on his way out you have three positions to look at in earnest.
While the Astros were amongst the league leaders in batting average overall, they were 27th in walks. This was a key stat as far too many times they ended up swinging themselves out of rallies or failing to make a starting pitcher break a sweat. They were 28th (or third) in the number of double plays they grounded into. The good news is they had the third fewest strikeouts in the big leagues, but when you are swinging so early in counts you are likely to put the ball in play more often.
The Astros were 11th in runs scored. Only two teams above them did not make the playoffs. They were sixth in the big leagues in earned runs surrendered and 7th in runs surrendered. Again, the pitching outpaced the hitting. So, if Dana Brown starts waxing poetic about how we need more pitching I might not be responsible for my actions. The shortcomings of this team were on full display all season and not just in the wild card round.
I don’t think it will take a bunch of all-stars coming in here. If you picked up two or three league average hitters at key positions it would lengthen that lineup and hopefully not make you so reliant on a high batting average on balls in play. Draw a few more walks and work some counts. That might mean a new hitting coach or least a different message. Nothing should be off the table.