A deeper look into statcast numbers?
I am something of a stat geek. I am not the only one around these parts. Clack has done some terrific work with statcast numbers for pitchers and hitters in the past. More than anything I love reading any work in dealing with stats. I learn something new every day. I learned something new on the way home from church when I was listening to MLB radio.
Pitching coach Rich Peterson was talking about a statistic they tracked when he was in Oakland. It is generally intuitive, but the more batters your pitchers face the less likely your team is to win. Well duh. Obviously, if you face only 27 hitters you win 100 percent of your games. The percentages go down in predictable intervals from there except for one significant blip.
Teams that face 37 hitters win more than 60 percent of their games. Teams that face 38 hitters win forty percent less often. Why? It would be easy to point to a percentage of runners that end up scoring and that one more run making a huge difference, but that also means your first, second, and third hitters are hitting five times instead of four. Imagine both Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez (when healthy) hitting five times instead of four. You could imagine our odds of winning increasing.
So, it stands to reason that who you have hitting first, second, and third matters. I was listening to the afternoon show on 610 on Friday. They suggested hitting Mauricio Dubon second. I almost pulled off the road because it is not safe to drive when you are laughing hysterically. Your top three hitters should be your three best hitters. You want your best hitters hitting more often.
Statcast Numbers
Jose Altuve: Regular: .299/.350/.432, 17.9% K Rate, 6.6% BB Rate
Statcast: .266/.317/.409
It has been a bit of a drop off for Altuve in the second half. Yes, he is hitting around .300, but he has a lot more singles than anything else and he isn’t making as solid of contact as previously. Plus, his strikeout rate is higher than it normally is. Put all that together and you are looking at a guy in the decline phase of his career.
Alex Bregman: Regular: .261/.318/.445, 13.0% K Rate, 7.1% BB Rate
Statcast: .258/.315/.419
The only thing significantly down for Bregman this year has been his walks. if we remove 2018 and 2019 we see that he has hit between 19 and 25 home runs in four of his five full seasons. After 2017, his lowest walk rate was 11 percent coming into this season. I’m not exactly sure whether this is a permeanent trend or a blip in the radar.
Yordan Alvarez: Regular: .306/.395/.552, 14.9% K Rate, 11.3% BB Rate
Statcast: .300/.389/.592
Alvarez might be the only hitter not outperforming his expectations. This is where Astros fans need to give Alvarez some grace. People expect Aaron Judge like numbers ans that has never been who Alvarez is. He is a guy that goes through positive and negative spurts. We should enjoy the Alvarez we have.
Kyle Tucker: Regular: .266/.395/.584, 15.6% K Rate, 17.6% BB Rate
Statcast: .284/.413/.567
Tucker is right about on level and will be a huge addition assuming he ever comes back. Given our paradigm in the introduction, they may consider dropping Bregman and elevating Tucker. It could increase the odds of winning if you can give Tucker that one additional plate appearance.
Yainer Diaz: Regular: .296/.322/.442, 15.9% K Rate, 3.9% BB Rate
Statcast: .298/.324/.461
Diaz is also a little better according to Statcast. The walk rate is still dangerously low, but he has surprisingly kept his average up likely by sacrificing some power. He is far from a perfect hitter, but when you consider that he is a primary catcher you could definitely do a lot worse (as we have seen over the years).
Jeremy Pena: Regular: .277/.321/.403, 17.0% K rate, 4.0% BB Rate
Statcast: .276/.320/.406
The good news is that the top six hitters all are pretty good contact hitters. The bad news is that only Alvarez and Tucker have been adept at drawing walks. This is a primary reason why elevating Pena to the top of the order is probably not a good idea if you can avoid it. Obfiously with Bregman and Tucker currently out you have to do the best you can.
Jon Singleton: Regular: .234/.317/.362, 27.7% K Rate, 11.0% BB Rate
Statcast: .225/.308/.358
Singleton is flawed, but he is also one of three guys that will actually draw a walk. The key is that he needs to hit in the bottom of the order. Obviously, he is a temporary solution to a longer term problem. The current issue is that there appear to be few options in the system that can take over capably at first.
Jake Meyers: Regular: .232/.296/.395, 23.4% K Rate, 6.6% BB Rate
Statcast: .256/.320/.428
Meyers is a 2+ win player according to BWAR and FWAR. It would not be out of the realm of possibility to see him approach three wins by the end of the season. Meyers won’t make anyone forget Steve Finley or Carl Everett, but he is a reasonable option in center and the numbers show he should be producing better numbers.
Mauricio Dubon: Regular: .254/.284/.366, 13.0% K Rate, 3.8% BB Rate
Statcast: .248/.278/.337
The numbers are not pretty and they get worse when you look at the more recent numbers. Over his last month his slash line is .148/.203/.278. The idea of elevating him to the second spot in the order must have been a cruel joke. Hopefully, the Astros can find someone else to take on the primary left field job when Kyle Tucker comes back.