Two players with great resumes but huge red flags
The index is a guide. It was never meant to be a hard and fast rule as to who gets in and who doesn’t. A large part of the problem is that perception plays a big role in these things and personalities get involved. Today we look at two players that aren’t likely to get in for two very different reasons. For some, those are good reasons. For others they aren’t.
Jeff Kent still holds a lot of the offensive records for second basemen. That is particularly true when we consider the counting numbers. However, there are questions about defensive value and there are questions about character. Kent was cantankerous with the press and many of his teammates hated him. We’ve seen a few of these guys over the years and they always have difficulty getting their just due.
Robinson Cano has even more impressive numbers overall, but he has been busted for PEDs twice. In fact, he is still playing technically, but the clock has stopped on his big league career. He is persona non grata in the big leagues largely because of the PED stink, but he is still mashing in Mexico.
Of course, that brings to mind a different debate. Where do we consider international numbers in all of this? If Cano continues to mash into his forties will that build on his case or is his case done? We should start with the counting numbers and move from there. We are comparing these two to the median Hall of Famer at the position. We consider the median the middle once we remove positive and negative outliers. These are the ten rank and file second basemen.
For many Hall of Fame voters, this is the extent of their analysis. Cano and Kent both look like Hall of Famers according to the basic numbers. When you consider that Rogers Hornsby spent a good portion of his career at shortstop, you can see how both of these players are head and shoulders above every other second basemen in history in the power department.
Of course, these numbers come with absolutely zero context whatsoever. Kent played in the greatest offensive period in the game. Cano tested positive twice for PEDs, so there is no telling how genuine these numbers are. This is why any good Hall of Fame voter digs deeper and this is why we are going to do the same thing.
The index is only a guide. The idea of a median should be obvious, but sometimes things get lost in the hustle and bustle of a debate. Some will be below the median and some above by sheer definition. So, the fact that Kent is under the median or that Cano is over the median does not necessarily mean anything. The results of the index are not destiny.
What they are is one piece of evidence. When someone says I think a guy is a Hall of Famer or not a Hall of Famer they are using evidence. Some use more evidence than others. The index is an important piece of evidence. Kent is not quite there. Some of the other tests will show us why.
The numbers are pretty clear here. There really is no reason to debate them. Both guys are more than qualified offensively. The question is what we do with this information. For some, it is enough and I have no beef with those folks. The trouble is the moral argument when it comes to Cano and the steroids. We unfortunately have no idea how long he was using outside of the periods when he was actually caught.
I’m sure Cano will argue that he only used to recover from injuries. He will argue that he only used once he was wearing down in his thirties and that the numbers in his twenties and early thirties are all legitimate. That may or may not be true. The difficulty comes in the fact that we will never really know. I also have no beef with those that will never ever vote for Cano for that reason.
Fielding numbers can be split into two different categories. There are the numbers that compare second basemen with other second basemen and then there are the value numbers that compare players with the whole baseball universe. Both of these guys were not universal second basemen. Kent played some third and first base in addition to second.
Cano spent some time at DH as well. So, both players trailed the median second baseman considerably in both categories. Kent was consistently below average. Cano was wildly inconsistent from season to season. So, in some years he could be very good defensively. In those seasons he likely had overwhelmingly good overall value numbers. That obviously has a huge impact on our next test.
These are some really compelling numbers in both directions. The BWAR numbers in particular really tell a fascinating story. Kent takes a hit because the beat writers usually focus on offensive numbers for the MVP. On the flip side, Cano was just a superior player and a superior player when compared with the median second baseman.
This comes back to how we treat Cano. Was he using throughout his career or just towards the end. He tested positive the second time in 2020 and was suspended for a season. He was banned the first time for 80 games in 2018. Those were both after his prime, but it raises questions as to whether he started before. If you take these numbers at face value he has a good case. However, it is easy to understand why some people can’t.
Playoff performance has always been a tie breaker for me. The other tests are much more meaningful and important, but the playoffs is the most important time of the season and those moments are burned into our brain cells. Every Houston Astros fan remembers Kent’s walk-off home run in Game 5 of the 2004 NLCS. Plus, the overall numbers in the playoffs are definitely a bonus for him.
Is it a coin flip for Kent between being in and being out? That’s an excellent question. My opinion has always been that players that are more qualified should get in first. That means Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, and Chase Utley. However, I can see a compelling argument for him being made based on the offensive production and playoff performance.
Cano is a much more complicated question. For one, how do we handle the fact that he is still playing? Do those numbers matter at all since they aren’t big league numbers? Then, there is the question of the PEDs and what effect they had on his numbers. On top of that, the moral and ethical dilemmas are enough to dissuade some voters regardless of the impact on the numbers. He probably never will get in, but he may deserve to.