How do the remaining targets compare?
Free agency can be a tricky thing. On our sister site Battle Red Blog I write a regular feature titled “Value of Things.” The genesis behind that was simple. Everyone has value. Even bench guys have value. In a sport where spending is fixed (at least 28 teams operate this way in MLB) the teams that succeed are the teams that accurately peg the value of players best.
So, I operate with two general rules to start off with. Number one, it makes no sense to sign an expensive player when a cheaper player will do the same thing. That includes rookies and other players in house. If Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo can do what any of these guys do then it makes little sense to sign those veterans. Secondly, if a better player demands more than he is worth, you are still probably better off going with the other guy. So, we start with some basics.
Jake Meyers seems to be entrenched in center field for better or worse. Sure, he can be spelled by Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, but he will likely be one of the starting outfielders on most days. That leaves McCormick, Dubon, Taylor Trammel, Whitcomb, and Pedro Leon as current in house options. I mentioned Zach Dezenzo but he is not currently listed as an outfielder, but I suppose that could change.
To keep things easy, we will use a Fangraphs stat called wOBA. It combines on base and slugging elements for an overall number that simulates on base percentage as a number. League averages usually hover between .320 and .330 depending on the season. Additionally, statcast projects what a player’s wOBA would have been in an average season considering his player profile (contact rates, types of contact, etc). Below are those five guys and their wOBA followed by their xwOBA.
Chas McCormick— .257/.285
Taylor Trammel— .196/.164
Mauricio Dubon— .286/.272
Shay Whitcomb— .272/.342
Pedro Leon— .117/.186
Whitcomb’s xwOBA jumps off the page and when you look at his minor league numbers, he has produced 60 homers in the last two seasons in the minors. That has come with a lot of swing and miss as well. However, as a right-handed bat he might serve as a reasonable platoon option if given the opportunity. Various projection systems have predicted that his wOBA will come in just over .300, so we have to consider that as a baseline when looking at other right-handed options.
What follows is a breakdown with lefties first and right handed hitters second. From here the Astros have three options: sign one, sign two, or sign none. We will start with their projected FWAR according to the composite of three projection systems and where that would correlate to in free agent dollars. The idea is that what the player actually will command will probably be the deciding factor.
Left-handed hitting Outfielders
Anthony Santander— 2.7 FWAR, 21.6 million projected AAV
The good news is that current negotiations are falling in line with that number. The trick with multi-year deals is negotiating the push and pull factors. Current value has eight million per win. That will almost certainly go up. Yet, his likely FWAR will go down. So, where exactly is the sweet spot on that axis? The Jays offered 4/80 and that offer is sitting there. In all likelihood, those offers will either get lower AAV or fewer years as we get closer to Spring Training.
The bad news is that the more we dig the worse things look. He sported a robust .345 wOBA last season, but statcast had him at .324. Add in -7 according to DRS in over 1100 innings and a chase rate over 35 percent and there is plenty to make you push the pause button. However, this goes back to value. If his years or dollars come down he might become worth it. He did have an .822 OPS against righties last season, and projections would certainly adjust based on where he lands.
Alex Verdugo— 1.1 FWAR, 8.8 million projected AAV
A part of his struggles was the fact that he became a regular in left field last season when he probably should have sat against lefties. He sported a .670 OPS against righties, but statcast was slightly more bullish on him (.302 xwOBA vs. .283 wOBA). Verdugo was a plus defender in left field last season and has been a plus defender in the past in right field (+7 in left field). He also has a better than average chase rate, so he would fit more of the profile of what Dana Brown is looking for. Various estimates had him at ten million per season. That’s a little too high, so the Astros are probably waiting for the price to come back down.
Jason Heyward— 0.5 FWAR, 4.0 million projected AAV
There is some rot there that we need to contend with. Heyward was +5 overall defensively in right and left field, but the offensive numbers are disturbing. For one, his chase rate went above league average for the first time in his career. Statcast was also a little worse (.290 xwOBA vs. .300 wOBA). He did have a .720 OPS against righties, so he has some value, but that value is likely limited.
Right Handed hitting outfielders
Jurickson Profar— 2.0 FWAR, 16.0 million projected AAV
The current estimates seem to be in line with this number. I am sure the sticking point are the years. You get the same consideration as Santander. The advantage here is that Profar doesn’t come with the tag attached. His statcast was almost identical to his actual output (.365 vs. .364). Profar is technically a switch hitter, but his profile works better against lefties (.885 OPS).
There are two downsides to Profar. While he has had excellent chase rates throughout his career, his production has been inconsistent. Last season was an up year, so you might be overpaying as compared to long-term production. The worse news is that he was -8 in left field defensively. Maybe that gets slightly better in the ice box, but I can’t imagine he is a good long-term bet defensively.
Randal Grichuk— 0.5 FWAR, 4.0 million projected AAV
The Dbacks discovered something last season and it worked. They played Grichuk almost exclusively against lefties and he produced a .914 OPS against them. Projection sites had him at about 10 million AAV and that is way too high. The good news is that his chase rate dropped to league average numbers last season. Statcast was a little pessimistic (.359 xwOBA vs. .373 wOBA) but those numbers are superior to anything any Houston outfielder is projected to put up.
Grichuk was also good defensively last season (+3) and has played all three outfield positions in his career. He profiles as the perfect fourth outfielder, but really should be paid that way. So, the Astros have to wait until that price comes down before they go wading in that pool.
Mark Canha— 0.7 FWAR, 5.6 million projected AAV
Canha is a name, but that might be all he is at this point. He did sport a .775 OPS against lefties, so if you ignore the rest you are getting something. He technically has played every outfield position and first base, so he would fit as a versatile defender. Those innings came with a -3 DRS in the outfield (another -3 at first). Unfortunately, this is where the good news stops. Statcast hated him last season (.288 xwOBA vs. .310 wOBA). Maybe some of that was playing in Detroit and San Francisco. He doesn’t chase much either, so he might be a decent platoon option, but that price will have to come down.
Tommy Pham— 0.6 FWAR, 4.8 million projected AAV
I’ve always liked the cut of Pham’s gib, but I have to admit that it is an increasingly irrational position given the numbers. The good news is that statcast thought he was better than he put up last season (.319 xwOBA vs. .297 wOBA) but there are some increasing signs of rot. For one, his chase rate has steadily increased as he has gotten older. For another, his power has steadily declined as he has gotten older. That’s not an appetizing combination.
His .674 OPS against lefties also doesn’t profile as any of the other three guys. The biggest detractor is that he had a -10 DRS in all three outfield slots last season. That also isn’t likely to get better. So, while he can play all three slots, he can’t play any of them particularly well. Like the others, this depends on price.
Final Thoughts
I have my favorites in the group, but this is all about price and length of contract. I think the Astros would prefer one year deals to keep their options open in the future. If Santander wants a pillow contract it could end up being a decent gamble. The same is true of Profar. I think what is more likely is that they go with someone like Verdugo or Heyward and then hope Whitcomb can pick up the slack on the other end.