Is Astros starting pitching leading the way to a 2024 Astros miracle?
These are the good old days.
Maybe we’re just too close to fully appreciate it, but what has happened to Astros starting pitching in the last month, especially considering the lack of pedigree of those involved, is astonishing. It is probably unprecedented. If it continues for two more months, the Astros’ 2024 season may well be remembered as a miracle.
The Astros just swept a tough, playoff-contending team , the Kansas City Royals, in a four game series. In those four games the starting pitching allowed one run and ten hits. It’s a perfect microcosm of Astros starting pitching in the month of August, and if it continues through October, the Astros will be a frightening presence to any team they face in the playoffs.
Can they keep it up?
Time will tell. But in a month when the Astros offense was 21st in runs scored, the team’s record was 18-10. It’s a month with at least two black holes in the outfield sans Kyle Tucker, plus the chronic issue at first base, and injuries to Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez for substantial periods of time.
Of course, you can’t talk about an Astros pitching miracle without mentioning the devastating injuries to what would normally be considered a full frontline starting rotation: Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, and Justin Verlander most of the season.
But despite early catastrophic failures starting the season 7-19, somehow an Astros stopgap, patchwork rotation has emerged as a force that could make the Astros the World Series favorite if their success continues into the playoffs.
Ronel Blanco emerged from obscurity to dominate the league through June and save the Astros when they were in a desperate situation. Sophomore Hunter Brown recovered from an April ERA of 9.78 to become one of the league’s best. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti, not projected to see much action in 2024, after a very rocky start, has emerged as an almost unhittable strikeout machine in August. Framber Valdez, who started the season very inconsistently, is possibly pitching the best of his illustrious career. And of course, a transformed Yusei Kikuchi, a trade deadline acquisition, has made the Astros rotation an obstacle course that no team wants to traverse.
Ask the Royals.
Did I mention a return of Verlander?
And, oh yeah, all this without a catcher named Maldonado.
Let’s look at the August stats as of August 31.
The Astros rotation’s August ERA of 2.43 leads the majors, a half run better than the next best team. The league is hitting only .181 against the Astros’ rotation in August, better than #2 by more than .10 points. The ERA- is 61 — 39% better than league average. They account for 4.8 fWAR, again far in first in the majors. Peripherals impress as well; the FIP of 2.86 and xFIP of 3.03 both lead the majors. Keep in mind this same staff was 27th in MLB with a 5.10 ERA through April.
Let’s look at the individuals mostly responsible for this August success. First, early season phenom Ronel Blanco is not included here as he has regressed somewhat from his earlier success, having blown way past his previous career inning limits. Nonetheless, including his start yesterday on September 1, his August ERA is is a highly respectable 3.38.
We’re not discussing Justin Verlander in this miracle either. He has only thrown 10 innings in August after returning from injury, but it should be noted that his return has lengthened the rotation to six, giving all the starters additional needed rest in their recent starts.
So let’s concentrate on what possibly should be the playoff Big Four: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, and Yusei Kikuchi, any of whom could be given some consideration for AL’s August pitcher of the month.
Framber Valdez
In the first half of 2024, Framber Valdez posted a respectable 3.66 ERA but was notably erratic. His xFIP was closely in line at 3.45.
In August, his ERA is 1.59, xFIP is 2.63, BAA (batting average against) is .118, and his WHIP is 0.65.
Hunter Brown
As mentioned earlier, in April Hunter Brown looked like a complete bust, and as desperate as the Astros were for pitching help, it looked like he was one or two more meltdowns from being sent down to the minors. He recovered after April, his first half ERA improved to 4.39, and his xFIP was an even better 3.74.
But that improvement after April was just a prelude. In August, Brown has posted the following numbers: 1.45 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, BAA .160, and WHIP, 0.87.
Spencer Arrighetti
Before the season, Spencer Arrighetti was projected to make a brief debut in the majors to cover occasional injuries to the regular staff. No one expected so many injuries. And no one expected Arrighetti to adapt so quickly and effectively to major league hitting. In his his first eight games he had a 6.93 ERA. For the entire first half Arrighetti’s ERA was 5.63, with an xFIP of 4.40.
In August the rookie has a 1.95 ERA, a 2.70 xFIP, a BAA of .168 and a WHIP of 0.90. He is striking out batters at an astonishing 38.2% while walking only 8.2%.
Yusei Kikuchi
A controversial trade deadline acquisition who came at a high price in prospects, the Astros have won all six games Kikuchi has started. He has given up no more than three earned runs in any of them.
He was decidedly mediocre with Toronto, allowing a 4.42 ERA in the season’s first half, with an xFIP of 3.41. His August ERA has dipped to 2.57, xFIP 2.52, while his August BAA is .179, and WHIP is 0.94.
Just last week I wrote an article skeptical that Kikuchi was really a different pitcher since arriving at Houston based on little change in his peripheral stats in a small sample. That data is now obsolete, the updated data does indicate a new pitcher, another miracle transformation (so far) under the tutelage of the Astros’ pitcher development program.
Overall, these four are in the league’s top 11 in August fWAR, top 10 in BAA, top 15 in WHIP, and three are in the top 11 in ERA, with Kikuchi at 18th. Arrighetti leads the league in K%, with Kikuchi and Valdez in the top 10, and Arrighetti is second in the league in K-BB% with Kikuchi sixth.
So basically, the Astros went through August with four top of rotation, #1, ace-level starters, followed by a still respectable Blanco and future HOFer Justin Verlander for two starts. Somehow he looks like the weak link.
Most teams don’t have even one pitcher of the quality of any of these four in August.
Astros pitcher development science has proven yet again that it is not just next-level, but exists in a whole different dimension than the rest of baseball’s. It’s perhaps the main reason that the Astros have been leading contenders year after year for the last eight years and why, despite excessive injuries and a depleted farm system, look to have a great shot for another World Series trophy in 2024.