Our owner often gets a bad rap
“I come to bury Caesar and not to praise him.” — Mark Antony
Jim Crane has been a popular punching bag around these parts. I get it on a certain level. Nearly everyone from the 2017 championship team is gone. Jose Altuve is the only man standing. I suppose if you were going to pick someone from that team to keep around for the long haul, he would be the guy. Still, anyone that is a fan of the Astros has to be a little upset to see another couple of franchise cornerstones (including Justin Verlander) walk out the door.
A large part of that is the club’s unwillingness to go beyond six years on any player. Free agent spending is a lot like a college keg party. It feels great in the moment, but there is always the hangover the next day. There have been mistakes along the way and we have gone over and over those mistakes. Yet, those mistakes have an expiration date. In two years, there will not be a toxic contract on the books. Altuve’s might be toxic by then, but we have no idea what the future will hold.
The fact that the Christian Walker contract came together so quickly indicates two different things. First, this organization is willing to spend money on good baseball players. They did so with Josh Hader and they have done it now with Walker. Both deals came together quickly, so there is a willingness to pay top dollar for players. It just has to be on their terms.
Secondly, there is a new sheriff in town. Dana Brown appears to be the number one voice over there and thankfully his voice won out over Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell wanted Arenado and he almost got his wish. The fact that Arenado blocked the trade might be the most fortunate rejection a baseball team has ever gotten.
Here is the bottom line. According to various reports, the Astros had 445 million in revenue as recently as 2023. Some revenue estimates out there project they will go over 600 million in revenue by the end of the decade based on the Spacecity Sports Network they share with the Houston Rockets.
Based on the models in the NFL and NBA. teams are expected to spend somewhere between 50 and 55 percent of their revenues on player salaries. I’d guess that some accountant somewhere has determined that is where spending needs to be in order for teams to be profitable. 50 percent of 445 million is 222.5 million. The Astros have surpassed that number and are projected to do so again.
55 percent of 445 million is right at 244.75 million dollars. That just happens to be where the tax threshold sits and the target for the Astros in spending. So, Crane is spending at about the northern end of his profitability window and has consistently shown a willingness to do so throughout the competitive window they are in.
What he hasn’t been willing to do is commit major dollars and major years to one player. That included Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, George Springer, and now Alex Bregman. He has been consistent in that regard. He has committed high AAV contracts to players like Justin Verlander, Jose Altuve, and now Christian Walker on shorter term deals. This is where we are currently at.
As a thinking fan I have two requests of my owner. First, I want my owner to spend as much as they possibly can so they can remain competitive and make a modest profit. Jim Crane checks that box. Secondly, I want my owner to employ smart and capable people and allow them to make the major day to day decisions that will impact the club.
In other words, if you tell me 250 million dollars is my absolute limit, at least give me the authority to spend that 250 million how I see fit. Granted, I am using the I in the perjorative sense. It isn’t mu money and I’m not the expert here. At the end of the day, I am just a guy that watches a lot of baseball, goes to fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com a lot, and I’ve written a few books on baseball history.
If you track the peaks and valleys of this organization since 2015 you’d realize that the peaks correspond to smart people making smart decisions. The valleys correspond to more casual people making dumber decisions. I’m going to make an admission that I’m sure most people wouldn’t make. I was on board with signing Jose Abreu at the time. I thought he would offer at least two solid seasons of production before he cratered. I was obviously wrong.
I was also on board with signing Lance McCullers Jr. when they did. 17 million seems like a lot, but if you have a front line top of the rotation (or even middle) pitcher then that sum is a bargain. I always thought the Rafael Montero contract was stupid, but I think most could say that. My point is that passionate and intelligent baseball fans sometimes get it wrong. I have been wrong more times than I can count.
The key is admitting what I don’t know. I don’t have access to behind the scenes data that these guys do. I don’t have access to scouting reports on every minor league player. I haven’t watched every guy with my own eyes and I might not grasp what an experienced scout would grasp even if I did. That is information Dana Brown and his staff have. That is expertise they have. An owner is better off letting those guys make decisions.
Right now, we look at the outfield and see an configuration that would make the 2012 Astros blush. However, it is also December 23rd. We don’t know what the final grouping will be. I would wager that the 40 man roster of today is not the 40 man roster when Spring Training opens. Which of those guys move I couldn’t tell you, but it appears that Brown has a plan and so far he hasn’t made any major gaffes. Crane is letting him do his thing and for that I am grateful.