What can we expect from Caleb Ferguson
Finally, some normalcy returns to the conversation. The Astros dealt a low level prospect and international bonus pool money for Caleb Ferguson. This is the kind of deal we are used to seeing from the organization as they ventured little for a buy low bullpen arm. The Yankees are likely reshuffling their deck before the end of the deadline, so Dana Brown pounced.
At first blush this doesn’t look like much of an add. Ferguson toiled for the Yankees this year where he had a 1-3 record with a 5.13 ERA. On the surface level this looks like a team dumping an arm and the Astros adding an arm to get them through the dog days of summer. Yet, for his career, Ferguson is 19-12 with a 3.86 ERA and six saves.
The Astros already have a four or five deep bullpen depending on how everyone feels about Seth Martinez. Yet, the bottom of their bullpen has been weak for much of the season. As I am want to do, I’ll take a look at some of the peripheral numbers and see what it is exactly that the club is getting. To do that I am going to do my beloved Player A and Player B test. I will substitute xFIP in place of ERA and see if you notice anything. I’ll even look at the careers for said pitchers for good measure.
Player A: 11.07 K/9, 4.32 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 62.2 LOB%, 1.35 HR/9, 3.78 xFIP
Player B: 5.40 K/9, 4.46 BB/9, .243 BABIP, 78.6 LOB%, 1.68 HR/9, 5.36 xFIP
I should talk about some of these numbers. The strikeouts, walks, and dingers speak for themselves, but BABIP and left on base percentage are a mixed bag. Typically, most pitchers hover around .300 in BABIP. There is a ton of study out there with conflicting conclusions on the reliability of BABIP. On the one hand, relievers are volatile by nature, so a very high or low BABIP can be a sign of positive or negative regression. On the other hand, hard hit percentage and other factors can skew BABIP one way or the other over a longer period of time.
Left on base percentage is another one that cuts both ways. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. However, some pitchers consistently outperform or underperform that. That can depend on ground ball rates and other factors that are not as readily defined. Certain Hall of Fame type pitchers seem to be able to buckle down and wiggle out of trouble. However, neither of these pitchers are that, so we can simply look at Player B as a disaster waiting to happen with an unsustainable BABIP and left on base percentage.
Player A Career: 10.77 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 74.3 LOB%, 1.08 HR/9, 3.68 xFIP
Player B Career: 8.94 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, .321 BABIP, 70.7 LOB%, 1.11 HR/9, 4.31 xFIP
Player A is better across the board, but we also see with the increase in innings that the BABIP and LOB% is more normalized for both players. Simply put, Player A misses more bats and is slightly better at limiting walks and dingers. Now, why did I include these particular pitchers? Player A is Ferguson. Player B is Rafael Montero. Since the top four or five reliever spots appears to be set, the Montero role feels like the role that Ferguson would be filling.
The superpower of the Astros since 2017 has been the ability to take seemingly middling pitchers and turn them into something more. Charlie Morton and Ryan Pressly immediately come to mind. Some of that are mechanical or pitch selection modifications that take full advantage of the pitcher’s talent. In the case of a reliever, it can be a lot about usage.
Both baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com have their own formulas that they use to differentiate between high, medium, and low leverage. Unfortunately, neither of them calculate ERA for these metrics, but if we look at the standard strikeouts, walks, and home runs we see something peculiar when we look at the baseball reference numbers for Ferguson.
High Leverage: 26.2% K rate, 9.5% BB rate, 2.4% HR rate
Medium Leverage: 22.9% K rate, 14.3% BB rate, 8.6% HR rate
Low Leverage: 41.0% K Rate, 9.0% BB rate, 1.3% HR rate
Those numbers are for just this season. As I said, Fangraphs has some different numbers, but I tend to trust baseball reference a little more in this instance. If we determine that Ferguson is at best the fifth option out of the pen if not the sixth then it stands to reason that he will pitch more often in lower leveraged situations. Clearly, he is performing better across the board there.
Getting a low leveraged reliever is never sexy at any point in the season, but we have all seen instances where we simply need solid innings from someone when the main relievers are gassed. Having a second lefty in the pen is also a plus. These are the kinds of deals I wish they would make more often. You are getting an upgrade even if there is no improvement. If there is improvement then you might have yourself something moving forward.